ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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cycloneye
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Re: CPC 8/6/07 Update=Possible La Nina in next 2 months

#401 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:24 am

artist wrote:cycloneye - do you mind giving a brief summary of what they are now thinking and how it might affect the season to come.



EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
12 July 2007

Spanish Version


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue during the next 2 months, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions equally likely thereafter.

ENSO-neutral conditions continued in the tropical Pacific during June 2007, with average to below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending from the date line to the west coast of South America (Fig. 1). The latest weekly SST departures are negative in the Niño 1+2 (-1.1oC), Niño 3 (-0.6oC), and Niño 3.4 (-0.3oC) regions, while remaining near zero in the Niño 4 (+0.1oC) region (Fig. 2).

The evolution toward La Niña conditions slowed during June 2007. The upper-ocean heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300 m of the ocean) in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific remained below-average, but departures were less negative (Fig. 3), consistent with the increased temperatures at thermocline depth (Fig 4). The low-level easterly winds remained stronger than average in the west-central equatorial Pacific, with suppressed convection across the equatorial Pacific and a weak area of enhanced convection over parts of Indonesia and northern Australia. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions.

Nearly all of the model forecasts predict below-average SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120-170oW) during the remainder of the year (Fig 5). A majority of the statistical models indicate a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through the summer months, with several statistical models forecasting weak La Niña conditions during the fall or winter. In contrast, most dynamical models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), continue to predict a transition to La Niña within the next three months. However, several of the dynamical models have recently been predicting a stronger and more rapid cooling than has actually occurred. Given the large spread in ENSO forecasts, along with the slower than expected decrease in observed SSTs over the past few months, it is reasonable to expect either a slower evolution toward La Niña conditions or the continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions.



The above is from the 12th of July update and you can see the change of language from then to today August 6.About the Atlantic Hurricane Season,CPC in their updates does not talk about the hurricane season but only about the data from the ENSO factor.
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Re: CPC 8/6/07 Update=Possible La Nina in next 2 months

#402 Postby artist » Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:33 pm

thanks cycloneye! 8-)
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Re: Latest CPC 8/9/07 update=Neutral now,La nina next 2 months

#403 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2007 8:20 am

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through August 2007, with a slightly greater than 50% chance of La Niña developing during the next couple of months.

ENSO-neutral conditions continued in the tropical Pacific during July 2007, with average to below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending from the date line to the west coast of South America (Fig. 1). The latest weekly SST departures remained negative in the Niño 1+2 (-1.7oC), Niño 3 (-1.2oC), and Niño 3.4 (-0.5oC) regions, and positive in the Niño 4 (+0.2oC) region (Fig. 2). Thus, while SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific have been cooler than average for the last six months, the departures continue to fall short of the threshold for La Niña (3-month running mean value of -0.5oC for the Niño 3.4 region: 5oN-5oS, 120-170oW).

Despite not meeting the SST threshold for La Niña, recent atmospheric circulation and tropical convection patterns are consistent with the evolution toward La Niña conditions. For example, the low-level easterly winds remained stronger than average in the west-central equatorial Pacific, convection remained suppressed across most of the equatorial Pacific, and a weak area of enhanced convection covered parts of Indonesia and the far western equatorial Pacific. Also, the upper-ocean heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300 m of the ocean) in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific remained below-average, but the magnitude of the departures continued to exhibit intraseasonal fluctuations (Fig. 3). Collectively, the oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflect a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions.

Nearly all of the ENSO models predict below-average SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region for the remainder of the year (Fig 4). The spread of the recent model forecasts range from ENSO-neutral to La Niña, with a majority of dynamical models indicating a more immediate transition to La Niña. However, over the last several months, the dynamical models have consistently predicted a stronger and more rapid cooling than has actually occurred. In contrast, a majority of the statistical models indicate a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions, but some forecast weak La Niña conditions during the fall or winter. When considered collectively, recent atmospheric conditions and model forecasts suggest a slightly greater than 50% chance of La Niña developing during the next couple of months. Historically, the early fall season (August-September-October) has been a critical period for the onset of La Niña events.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html
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Re: Latest CPC 8/9/07 update=Neutral now,La nina next 2 months

#404 Postby windstorm99 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 8:21 am

Not good for the most active period approaching.
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Re: Latest CPC 8/9/07 update=Neutral now,La nina next 2 months

#405 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2007 8:27 am

windstorm99 wrote:Not good for the most active period approaching.



Looks like a late season year.
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Re: Latest CPC 8/9/07 update=Neutral now,La nina next 2 months

#406 Postby Frank2 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 8:30 am

Well, it'll be a horse race, since those first significant cool fronts will be dropping down from Canada in about 3-4 weeks...

If it does turn out to be 2 months, that's almost mid-October, so...
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Re: Latest CPC 8/9/07 update=Neutral now,La nina next 2 months

#407 Postby flwxwatcher » Thu Aug 09, 2007 8:43 am

Frank2 wrote:Well, it'll be a horse race, since those first significant cool fronts will be dropping down from Canada in about 3-4 weeks...

If it does turn out to be 2 months, that's almost mid-October, so...

Then again in mid October there is a secondary peak of development with the Western Caribbean being a favored spot and if indeed the cold fronts are dropping down.. well!!!
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Re: Latest CPC 8/9/07 update=Neutral now,La nina next 2 months

#408 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 09, 2007 8:44 am

Why am not worried about this news? Maybe it's because there is nothing out
there to worry about right now.
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Re: Latest CPC 8/9/07 update=Neutral now,La nina next 2 months

#409 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2007 1:36 pm

Well,for sure according to the Aussies (BoM) and CPC there will be no blame of El Nino if the Atlantic 2007 season turns out to be average or below average.It will be other factors that will be the cause of lower Atlantic activity,it that turns out to be at the end.
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Re: Latest CPC 8/9/07 update=Neutral now,La nina next 2 months

#410 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 09, 2007 1:44 pm

Frank2 wrote:Well, it'll be a horse race, since those first significant cool fronts will be dropping down from Canada in about 3-4 weeks...

If it does turn out to be 2 months, that's almost mid-October, so...


...when Florida is most at risk. Wilma anyone?

The season doesn't magically shutdown in October...
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Re: Latest CPC 8/9/07 update=Neutral now,La nina next 2 months

#411 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 09, 2007 1:46 pm

Isn't there more Carolina landfalls during La Nina conditions?
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Re: Latest CPC 8/9/07 update=Neutral now,La nina next 2 months

#412 Postby El Nino » Fri Aug 10, 2007 3:25 pm

ENSO/La Nina conditions are really making Peruvian climate quite cold :

http://www.senamhi.gob.pe/usr/dmc/tmp/ciudad/3.gif

This the temperature anomaly forecasted by Peruvian Weather Service for the period August-October.

I just took a warm footbath to warm me up :roll:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#413 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:19 am

CPC Weekly Update

Climate Prediction Centers weekly update says that the trends is for La Nina to appear later this year.Read the update at link above.
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Re: CPC Weekly Update-8/27/07=Trend towards La Nina Continues

#414 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 27, 2007 1:19 pm

8/27/07 CPC Update in pdf

The trend towards la Nina continues.Read the update at above link.

Image

Those cool pool waters are expanding westward suggesting that La Nina is on the way.
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#415 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:26 pm

Oh, BTW....The BOM is set to give its update tomorrow. It will indeed be interesting to see if La Nina will be declared this coming month of September as we enter the peak of the season and how this might affect activity in the Atlantic. Here is the link for the update from the BOM as it should come out late tonight/early early tomorrow morning.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
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Re: ENSO Updates

#416 Postby P.K. » Wed Aug 29, 2007 1:57 am

They won't declare La Nina in September.

CURRENT STATUS as at 29th August 2007
Next update expected by 12th September 2007 (two weeks after this update).
| Summary | In Brief | Details |

Summary: La Niña indicators strengthen

Since late July there has been a gradual strengthening of most La Niña indicators. For example, surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific have approached or just passed La Niña thresholds and there has been further cooling below the surface. Trade Winds have been mostly close to or stronger than normal and cloudiness has been less than average over much of the tropical Pacific.

However, further strong cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean looks unlikely, as computer model guidance suggests ocean temperatures will remain near the La Niña thresholds until the end of the year. In the past, most significant La Niña events were firmly established by winter's end.

Furthermore, the SOI remains neutral at +2 for the past 30 days, a modest rise from the −4 for the month of July. Continued above average air pressure over Australia has contributed to both the neutral SOI and the below-normal rainfall over much of the country since the start of July. For 2007 to be confirmed as a La Niña year (late-developing by historical standards), the SOI needs to rise to around +7 or higher for several months while the present patterns of Pacific Ocean temperatures, Trade Winds and cloud patterns are maintained.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
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Re: ENSO Updates=BoM 8/29/07 Update=La Nina indicators increase

#417 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 29, 2007 6:04 am

What this update shows is that the rest of the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be with mainly Neutral with perhaps a very weak La Nina by years end.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#418 Postby Jim Hughes » Wed Aug 29, 2007 9:32 am

P.K. wrote:They won't declare La Nina in September.

CURRENT STATUS as at 29th August 2007
Next update expected by 12th September 2007 (two weeks after this update).
| Summary | In Brief | Details |

Summary: La Niña indicators strengthen

Since late July there has been a gradual strengthening of most La Niña indicators. For example, surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific have approached or just passed La Niña thresholds and there has been further cooling below the surface. Trade Winds have been mostly close to or stronger than normal and cloudiness has been less than average over much of the tropical Pacific.

However, further strong cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean looks unlikely, as computer model guidance suggests ocean temperatures will remain near the La Niña thresholds until the end of the year. In the past, most significant La Niña events were firmly established by winter's end.

Furthermore, the SOI remains neutral at +2 for the past 30 days, a modest rise from the −4 for the month of July. Continued above average air pressure over Australia has contributed to both the neutral SOI and the below-normal rainfall over much of the country since the start of July. For 2007 to be confirmed as a La Niña year (late-developing by historical standards), the SOI needs to rise to around +7 or higher for several months while the present patterns of Pacific Ocean temperatures, Trade Winds and cloud patterns are maintained.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


I did not know that they used an SOI guideline in regards to classifying ENSO events. At least it sounds like they do from their +7.0 comments.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#419 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Aug 29, 2007 9:38 am

Jim Hughes wrote:
P.K. wrote:They won't declare La Nina in September.

CURRENT STATUS as at 29th August 2007
Next update expected by 12th September 2007 (two weeks after this update).
| Summary | In Brief | Details |

Summary: La Niña indicators strengthen

Since late July there has been a gradual strengthening of most La Niña indicators. For example, surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific have approached or just passed La Niña thresholds and there has been further cooling below the surface. Trade Winds have been mostly close to or stronger than normal and cloudiness has been less than average over much of the tropical Pacific.

However, further strong cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean looks unlikely, as computer model guidance suggests ocean temperatures will remain near the La Niña thresholds until the end of the year. In the past, most significant La Niña events were firmly established by winter's end.

Furthermore, the SOI remains neutral at +2 for the past 30 days, a modest rise from the −4 for the month of July. Continued above average air pressure over Australia has contributed to both the neutral SOI and the below-normal rainfall over much of the country since the start of July. For 2007 to be confirmed as a La Niña year (late-developing by historical standards), the SOI needs to rise to around +7 or higher for several months while the present patterns of Pacific Ocean temperatures, Trade Winds and cloud patterns are maintained.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


I did not know that they used an SOI guideline in regards to classifying ENSO events. At least it sounds like they do from their +7.0 comments.


Me either to tell you the truth. The 30 day SOI might reach that briefly as they mentioned but then La Nina would gradually weaken by wintertime.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#420 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 04, 2007 5:53 pm

Weekly Climate Prediction Center update

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

They are forecasting La Niña to be present in the next several months.
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