System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[Aric Dunn]

If that wave north of Venezuela continues to deepen it could force something to the surface. Let's see what it does.

Ideally i'd agree with you because really thats probably the most faborable area as far as the upper air environment is concerned, but looking a visibles the lower level flow is screaming eastward much like the situation with 99L....gonna be hard for something to get going there.

But honestly, that area has just as good of a shot (which is hardly no shot imo) in the near term (2-3 days mind you) as the area Aric pointed out near Jamaica.

that area near venezuela always has strong winds and also more than one time a day produces vorticies that move into the SW carrib and on very rare occasion develop with the help of some pre existing wave. but as you head farther north the low leve shear that 99l had is not present now, it is much weaker than with 99l.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Even next week it would be more of a threat to Mexico. Upper high stays locked in through next week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

if a storm gets kickin next week will be a week for texas and mexico to watch

both areas should watch it...but the further north something forms, the more likely it is to impact TX and vice versa. Best case for TX would be a storm forming south of the Yucatan and heading west into central America and Mexico. Worst case would be a storm forming north of the Yucatan and west of south Florida where it would likely move W or WNW toward TX.

JB is thinking a more northward scenario is the most likely ATM..and he has been saying TX will have to watch closely next week.

[astrosbaseball22]

Even next week it would be more of a threat to Mexico. Upper high stays locked in through next week.

yeah brownsville i think ......

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yup!

[Wx_Warrior]

When was the last Brown/Tex/Mex border storm?

[storms in NC]

Even next week it would be more of a threat to Mexico. Upper high stays locked in through next week.

yeah brownsville i think ......

How much closer can you get to Mexico than Browsville? LOL

[Sjones]

However, looking back in history, quite a few storms made an eastern turn right before landfall. Therefore, if it is aimed at Mexico/South TX, I will still be on alert and ready to go at a moments notice.

[Normandy]

If that wave north of Venezuela continues to deepen it could force something to the surface. Let's see what it does.

Ideally i'd agree with you because really thats probably the most faborable area as far as the upper air environment is concerned, but looking a visibles the lower level flow is screaming eastward much like the situation with 99L....gonna be hard for something to get going there.

But honestly, that area has just as good of a shot (which is hardly no shot imo) in the near term (2-3 days mind you) as the area Aric pointed out near Jamaica.

that area near venezuela always has strong winds and also more than one time a day produces vorticies that move into the SW carrib and on very rare occasion develop with the help of some pre existing wave. but as you head farther north the low leve shear that 99l had is not present now, it is much weaker than with 99l.

No doubt that the lower level shear is very low in the area you are pinpointing....its pretty much a non-factor. Convection is increasing in the area but it still has to fight some upper level shear....I still don't see development in the next 2-3 days however....Oh well one of us will eat crow.

[Brent]

When was the last Brown/Tex/Mex border storm?

Directly Allen? Emily wasn't that far south of the border. Bret 1999 went a little north but well south of Corpus Christi.

[Aric Dunn]

"]If that wave north of Venezuela continues to deepen it could force something to the surface. Let's see what it does.

Ideally i'd agree with you because really thats probably the most faborable area as far as the upper air environment is concerned, but looking a visibles the lower level flow is screaming eastward much like the situation with 99L....gonna be hard for something to get going there.

But honestly, that area has just as good of a shot (which is hardly no shot imo) in the near term (2-3 days mind you) as the area Aric pointed out near Jamaica.

that area near venezuela always has strong winds and also more than one time a day produces vorticies that move into the SW carrib and on very rare occasion develop with the help of some pre existing wave. but as you head farther north the low leve shear that 99l had is not present now, it is much weaker than with 99l.

No doubt that the lower level shear is very low in the area you are pinpointing....its pretty much a non-factor. Convection is increasing in the area but it still has to fight some upper level shear....I still don't see development in the next 2-3 days however....Oh well one of us will eat crow.[/quote]

lol i guess so..but i never siad it would develop just was saying im not totally disregarding it.. but yeah

[Aric Dunn]

12z Nogaps seems to have a little better handle on it.. and is much stronger than before

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[feederband]

Oh well one of us will eat crow.

Crows have been extinct since the end of the 2004 season...They were all eating then...Lots of seagulls left though...Maybe we should start eating them...

[ronjon]

From HPC Afternoon Disc:

...PLAINS/EAST...

THE LARGE HOT RIDGE OVER THE S CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE NATION EXCEPT FOR: IMPULSES MOVING AROUND THE TOP OF THE MEAN RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE SRN GRT LAKES TO THE UPPER OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC; AND 2) THE GA/SC COASTS AND PENINSULAR FL. WE ARE WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE SLOW TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT VCNTY OF YUCATAN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...REFER TO DISCUSSIONS FROM TPC.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS Animation



NOGAPS joins CMC and Euro on a GOM system.

[Aric Dunn]

12z NOGAPS Animation



NOGAPS joins CMC and Euro on a GOM system.

yeah it did on the 00z and now the 12z

[Cyclone1]

We're all going to be very depressed if this thing doesn't develop .

[Aric Dunn]

We're all going to be very depressed if this thing doesn't develop .

i wont! this is the fun part

well besides standing a hurricane!

[wxman57]

12z NOGAPS Animation



NOGAPS joins CMC and Euro on a GOM system.

This could just mean that all 3 models (CMC and NOGAPS in particular) share the same bad physics. They're clearly seeing something in the SW Caribbean tracking NW toward the Yucatan then west toward Mexico. Will it actually develop? Maybe. We'll just have to wait and see.

[cycloneye]

Dean4Storms I modified the title of thread to take out CMC forecasts major hurricane,and put models show development in GOM?,as other models are joining CMC.