GFS continues to develop African wave

[windstorm99]

For the fish....

[miamicanes177]

For the fish....

Trying to get into specifics such as whether it goes "out to sea" or makes landfall somewhere is just speculation. Forecast skill for tropical cyclone location 14 days in advance is very low-non existent at best.

[skysummit]

For the fish....

Trying to get into specifics such as whether it goes "out to sea" or makes landfall somewhere is just speculation. Forecast skill for tropical cyclone location 14 days in advance is very low-non existent at best.

That's why it's been back and forth from the Yucatan, to Florida, to New York, to re-curving.

[windstorm99]

Trying to get into specifics such as whether it goes "out to sea" or makes landfall somewhere is just speculation. Forecast skill for tropical cyclone location 14 days in advance is very low-non existent at best.

Thats correct the general trend from all the models is activity should pick up in the coming weeks.

[Ivanhater]

For the fish....

Trying to get into specifics such as whether it goes "out to sea" or makes landfall somewhere is just speculation. Forecast skill for tropical cyclone location 14 days in advance is very low-non existent at best.

Yes we know...landfall at the end of the run is like playing darts..main thing is the model is Still developing this low in a couple of days

[ronjon]

500 mb pattern from Hour 216 from 12Z GFS



500 mb pattern from Hour 228 from 00Z GFS



The east coast trough is much deeper on the 12Z run and slower. Notice that 594 dm ridge over the SE is gone in the 12Z run also. You just can't use these runs with any confidence at all at 9 days out.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Loop

Those who want to see the complete 12z run,here it is.

[Blown Away]

The question is if the ridge is starting to build or retreat as this system gets close to the EC. The GFS goes from skirting the EC to out to sea, so there must be a trough setting up during that time frame. All about the timing.

[Anthonyl]

I am very much doudting this northern track given the upper air variables in front of this system. Aric stated correctly, I do not think this system would develop so quickly and may meander in low intensity like 99 and 96l. We may very well be watching the unfolding to a Carribbean system with low lat tragectory.

[gatorcane]

It's really shooting in the dark when you look 300 hours out folks. Expect the GFS to flop back and forth between ridging/troughiness scenarios. In addition, it may end up dropping this system all together, you just don't know.

In fact we won't know more for about 1 week. Now is nearly impossible to project anything.

[Derek Ortt]

there is currenly 30KT of shear

Upper winds are easterly but low level winds are westerly

[ronjon]

12Z CMC is bullish on Cape Verde development - track slightly northward of GFS. Waiting on 12Z UKMET.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007080912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[ronjon]

12Z UKMET develops a weaker version and faster than GFS & CMC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2007080912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[storms in NC]

12Z UKMET develops a weaker version and faster than GFS & CMC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2007080912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Has anyone seen what is going to come off the coast? I have seen better storm than that to roll off and died as soon as it hit the water. I think I would go with the UKMET with this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Source

SPECIAL ADVISORY
NATIONAL BEAR WATCH AGENCY
CONEHEAD ADVISORY THU AUGUST 9 2007 2:30 PM EDT

"A bear watch has been issued for the entire Atlantic basin. We have issued the latest cone of uncertainty for the following areas.

1) All areas within 1,000 miles of the ocean have been placed under a mandatory model watch alert
2) Don't panic - wait until the next run to gawk at the 700 mbar Category 9 (900+ hours out)
3) There is a considerable margin of error
4) This forecast has been noted as an extremely accurate method

Enjoy your day!"

I added this post for some levity!

[Scorpion]

http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/9093 ... ry5.th.jpg

Every major model now develops this TC

[Scorpion]

The Euro is taking it dead aim at south FL

[Extremeweatherguy]

If this forms and the possible system in the GOM forms, then we could easily be looking at 2 TCs at once next week. That would be interesting after such a quiet last few weeks.

[skysummit]

The Euro is taking it dead aim at south FL

Link Please? The ECMWF page only shows to 240 hours:

[Opal storm]

If this forms and the possible system in the GOM forms, then we could easily be looking at 2 TCs at once next week. That would be interesting after such a quiet last few weeks.

Reminds me of 2000, when we had hurricane Alberto (Atlantic) and TS Beryl (GOM) at the same time. Right around this time of the month too.