System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
vaffie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 898
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:11 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

Re: Models show development next week in GOM?

#201 Postby vaffie » Thu Aug 09, 2007 2:22 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z NOGAPS Animation

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

NOGAPS joins CMC and Euro on a GOM system.


yeah it did on the 00z and now the 12z


So, Monday morning (96 hours), the 12Z NOGAPS has a closed low east of Cozumel moving north into the Gulf and then westnorthwest. The 12Z Canadian model, on the other hand, has a closed low on Monday morning somewhat stalled just south of Miami then moving west. Looks interesting, Monday morning, here we come!
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Models show development next week in GOM?

#202 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 09, 2007 2:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z NOGAPS Animation

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

NOGAPS joins CMC and Euro on a GOM system.


This could just mean that all 3 models (CMC and NOGAPS in particular) share the same bad physics. They're clearly seeing something in the SW Caribbean tracking NW toward the Yucatan then west toward Mexico. Will it actually develop? Maybe. We'll just have to wait and see.


agreed
0 likes   

User avatar
vaffie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 898
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:11 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

Re: Models show development next week in GOM?

#203 Postby vaffie » Thu Aug 09, 2007 2:44 pm

There appear to be two mid-level circulations on visible satellite--one centered at 17.2N, 72.2W--just south of Haiti--moving west, and a second one southeast of it and associated with a lot of convection at 14.3, 69.2W north of Venezuela moving westnorthwest. It will be interesting to see how it all develops. There are many possibilities. One of them is that the more northerly one continues to track west, remaining weak into the Bay of Campeche, while the more southerly one gets pulled north out of the Caribbean into the southern Gulf. A second possibility and simpler scenario is that they merge in the NW Caribbean.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Models show development next week in GOM?

#204 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 09, 2007 2:48 pm

vaffie wrote:There appear to be two mid-level circulations on visible satellite--one centered at 17.2N, 72.2W--just south of Haiti--moving west, and a second one southeast of it and associated with a lot of convection at 14.3, 69.2W north of Venezuela moving westnorthwest. It will be interesting to see how it all develops. There are many possibilities. One of them is that the more northerly one continues to track west, remaining weak into the Bay of Campeche, while the more southerly one gets pulled north out of the Caribbean into the southern Gulf. A second possibility and simpler scenario is that they merge in the NW Caribbean.



look farther west ... notice the strong low level shear on the loops in the eastern carrib and south of hati.. it all runs into the area near jamaica from the SE and then there is a ne to ene wind west of jamaica watch the western carrib
0 likes   

User avatar
KFDM Meteorologist
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1314
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 9:52 pm
Location: Upper Texas Coast/Orange County

#205 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:04 pm

12Z Euro shows system in southern Gulf as expected. Next Thursday 500 High remains strong over S. Plains..click on 168 Hours

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re:

#206 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:06 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:12Z Euro shows system in southern Gulf as expected. Next Thursday 500 High remains strong over S. Plains..click on 168 Hours

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html


here is the full view
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

this run begins to show something as early as tomorrow afternoon
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#207 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:06 pm

***
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Looks like the strong ridge would steer whatever
forms into South Texas.
So South Texas needs to watch this very closely.
0 likes   

User avatar
KFDM Meteorologist
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1314
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 9:52 pm
Location: Upper Texas Coast/Orange County

Re: Re:

#208 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:08 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:12Z Euro shows system in southern Gulf as expected. Next Thursday 500 High remains strong over S. Plains..click on 168 Hours

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html


here is the full view
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

this run begins to show something as early as tomorrow afternoon
Thanks!!
0 likes   

User avatar
KFDM Meteorologist
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1314
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 9:52 pm
Location: Upper Texas Coast/Orange County

Re: Models show development next week in GOM?

#209 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:10 pm

That's not a full shot from the Euro i don't believe.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Models show development next week in GOM?

#210 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:11 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:That's not a full shot from the Euro i don't believe.

hmmm... yes it is :( pretty sure

of the atlantic basin it is
0 likes   

User avatar
KFDM Meteorologist
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1314
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 9:52 pm
Location: Upper Texas Coast/Orange County

Re: Models show development next week in GOM?

#211 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:11 pm

I'm still looking.. :D
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: Models show development next week in GOM?

#212 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:12 pm

With the heatwave over the south the ocean heat content in the GOM
is just explosive.

Not trying to cause panic, but that heat content is
scary!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
0 likes   

User avatar
KFDM Meteorologist
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1314
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 9:52 pm
Location: Upper Texas Coast/Orange County

Re: Models show development next week in GOM?

#213 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:13 pm

Water temps are near 90 in the GOM. images/smilies/blowup.gif
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Models show development next week in GOM?

#214 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:14 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:I'm still looking.. :D


ok im pretty sure it is i've been using it for a couple years .. its from the same site as your link just in the e-wall tropical
0 likes   

User avatar
KFDM Meteorologist
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1314
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 9:52 pm
Location: Upper Texas Coast/Orange County

Re: Models show development next week in GOM?

#215 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:17 pm

Where on that site is that wider view? I can't find it?? 8-)
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#216 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:18 pm

The EURO model is the furthest south scenario of all the models. I am thinking this system forms further north than what it is showing and is a threat more to the Texas/Mexico border area.
0 likes   

User avatar
KFDM Meteorologist
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1314
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 9:52 pm
Location: Upper Texas Coast/Orange County

Re: Models show development next week in GOM?

#217 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:19 pm

Quite possible.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Models show development next week in GOM?

#218 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:19 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Where on that site is that wider view? I can't find it?? 8-)


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewalltropatl.html

left side under "model extras"
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

Re: Models show development next week in GOM?

#219 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:32 pm

Hey, I know this is off topic, but I HAD to post it. Gulf Coast residents please be careful!

Observed at: Pascagoula, Mississippi
Elevation: 16 ft / 5 m
[Clear]
97 °F / 36 °C
Clear
Humidity: 63%
Dew Point: 82 °F / 28 °C
Wind: 5 mph / 7 km/h / 2.1 m/s Variable
Pressure: 29.91 in / 1013 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 122 °F / 50 °C
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 10 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
0 likes   

Praxus
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 473
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:19 pm

Re: Models show development next week in GOM?

#220 Postby Praxus » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:35 pm

Haven't read the whole thread; but I'm a bit confused if this is referring to the same system in the other thread about the wave coming off africa....or are the models calling for 2 systems to develop next week ?!
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: gib, Sciencerocks and 25 guests