Vigorous tropical wave in Eastern Atlantic

[Aric Dunn]

cut and paste this >> javascript:popupDerivedProduct('RGB','AIR', 9); into browser .. then click on sector five and hit play

it is the best loop of the system out there ever hour images

[Blown Away]

Is this wave about to exit the coast?

[Aric Dunn]

Is this wave about to exit the coast?

tomorrow

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I think this wave has the best shot (for development) we have seen in recent weeks. The well defined circulation can be seen in WV and IR loops. I have noticed a good mid-level spin near 9.8N. Look here. That low latitude is a positive sign for this system. Sfc convergence has sustained convection in an unstable thermodynamic environment. Additionally, look at the broad area of low-level inflow - it is evident in shortwave imagery. Pre-axis convection is sparser than other waves, but I think this a beneficial feature - it will enable better convective sustenance over water.

There are several hurdles - the mid-level air mass is quite stable to the north of the wave. That factor could kill mid-level instability (as evidenced in previous waves). A strong SAL outbreak could inhibit convection. The expansive inflow could "choke" the system's engine via dry air intrusion. I think this system will be a "make or brake" wave - it will shrivel or survive in spite of the environment. If it survives, it could "ring the climatological bell" for the 2007 season. Past climatology and other "late" active seasons (i.e. 1998) strongly supports this hypothesis. Hyperstorm made some great points on this position.

Generally, I give this system low chances for development at the present time. I do think it should be closely monitored, and I think it has a good chance for development if it can overcome the dry mid-level environment. I would closely monitor the structural changes after this wave moves off the coast. It could provide some insight into the possible "path" of this season (i.e. homegrown or MDR development). If the system does not develop, I believe we could observe some CV systems - the primary development could occur closer to land masses.

What do you think?

[Aric Dunn]

Personally, I think this wave has the best shot (for development) we have seen in recent weeks. The well defined circulation can be seen in WV and IR loops. I have noticed a good mid-level spin near 9.8N. Look here. That low latitude is a positive sign for this system. Sfc convergence has sustained convection in an unstable thermodynamic environment. Additionally, look at the broad area of low-level inflow - it is evident in shortwave imagery. Pre-axis convection is sparser than other waves, but I think this a beneficial feature - it will enable better convective sustenance over water.

There are several hurdles - the mid-level air mass is quite stable to the north of the wave. That factor could kill mid-level instability (as evidenced in previous waves). A strong SAL outbreak could inhibit convection. The expansive inflow could "choke" the system's engine via dry air intrusion. I think this system will be a "make or brake" wave - it will shrivel or survive in spite of the environment. If it survives, it could "ring the climatological bell" for the 2007 season. Past climatology and other "late" active seasons (i.e. 1998) strongly supports this hypothesis. Hyperstorm made some great points on this position.

Generally, I give this system low chances for development at the present time. I would closely monitor the structural changes after this wave moves off the coast. It could provide some insight into the possible "path" of this season (i.e. homegrown or MDR development).

What do you think?

this is better up close look a the system just cut and paste in browser javascript:popupDerivedProduct('RGB','AIR', 9); then click on sector 5


http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/Image ... x.htm?l=en

its the airmass one

[jasons2k]

I dunno, conditions look marginal to me. I can't count how many times we've had very promising waves, with all kinds of model support, hit the water for 48 hours and fizzle out. Derek will probably be right, we may not see anything until the end of the month, which means my seasonal forecast will bust. We shall see.

[skysummit]

I dunno, conditions look marginal to me. I can't count how many times we've had very promising waves, with all kinds of model support, hit the water for 48 hours and fizzle out. Derek will probably be right, we may not see anything until the end of the month, which means my seasonal forecast will bust. We shall see.

When have we had a wave with model support like this? Not ever this season.

[dwg71]

I dunno, conditions look marginal to me. I can't count how many times we've had very promising waves, with all kinds of model support, hit the water for 48 hours and fizzle out. Derek will probably be right, we may not see anything until the end of the month, which means my seasonal forecast will bust. We shall see.

When have we had a wave with model support like this? Not ever this season.

Models are still very, very, very inaccurate at forecasting development. Its just an inexact science. With motion/direction/path of developed storms the models are getting better and better, but intensity and development are still in the very iffy propositions.

Nothing is imminent the moment.

[skysummit]

I dunno, conditions look marginal to me. I can't count how many times we've had very promising waves, with all kinds of model support, hit the water for 48 hours and fizzle out. Derek will probably be right, we may not see anything until the end of the month, which means my seasonal forecast will bust. We shall see.

When have we had a wave with model support like this? Not ever this season.

Models are still very, very, very inaccurate at forecasting development. Its just an inexact science. With motion/direction/path of developed storms the models are getting better and better, but intensity and development are still in the very iffy propositions.

Nothing is imminent the moment.

I didn't say this was "imminent". However, we've never had model agreement this season like we have now. I know they are very, very, very inaccurate when it comes to forecasting development, but when you have this much support, together with the amazing consistency the GFS the last 12 runs, you simply cannot ignore it.

[storms in NC]

How many times did a good looking wave come off the coast last year just to go poof? To many. So just hold on to your hats and we will see by Monday or Tiesday if it will go ZAP

[jasons2k]

I dunno, conditions look marginal to me. I can't count how many times we've had very promising waves, with all kinds of model support, hit the water for 48 hours and fizzle out. Derek will probably be right, we may not see anything until the end of the month, which means my seasonal forecast will bust. We shall see.

When have we had a wave with model support like this? Not ever this season.

This horse has been around the track longer than one season

[skysummit]

I dunno, conditions look marginal to me. I can't count how many times we've had very promising waves, with all kinds of model support, hit the water for 48 hours and fizzle out. Derek will probably be right, we may not see anything until the end of the month, which means my seasonal forecast will bust. We shall see.

When have we had a wave with model support like this? Not ever this season.

This horse has been around the track longer than one season

That's just fine, but I believe the horse is about to take a break.

[skysummit]

[Opal storm]

Looks like dry air won't be much of a problem as it emerges.

[Cyclone1]

Wow, dry air sure has moistened up.

[Meso]

Today's SAL


Yesterday's SAL

Seems to be on quite the decrease

[Opal storm]

SAL is decreasing but it looks like it's still going to affect our wave, I wouldn't expect development until it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

[Derek Ortt]

The SAL decreased because the tropical wave that we were all watching over the week-end emerged today near the Straits of Gibralter... the SAL surge is toward Spain and Portugal.

Had that wave emerged where waves are supposed to emerge, it may have developed as the wave that should emerge tomorrow (which may NOT be the ones the models develop... they may be developing the wave behind and some may be watching the wrong wave) would have blocked the SAL, letting the big wave from last week-end develop some

[Fego]

Ummm... I'm lost. Who is in first?

[Weatherfreak000]

The point appears to be, this wave might not be the wave the models agree with, but it appears to be our best shot right now, considering the wave behind it will probably be shaved by the SAL.


Many possibilities still exist, even with "Model Agreement" we still have much uncertainty.