System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[Aric Dunn]

One thing I'm not real certain of though (yes I'm a newbie to the Tropics) is what is that ULL just E. of the Yucatan going to do over the next few days?

it is going to continue to move WNW to w which will create a better environment in the NW carrib starting tomorrow ..

actually the motion of that ULL is a good indication of the motion our system would make should it become something and get a little stronger than the models are forecasting it o

[mgpetre]

One thing I'm not real certain of though (yes I'm a newbie to the Tropics) is what is that ULL just E. of the Yucatan going to do over the next few days?

it is going to continue to move WNW to w which will create a better environment in the NW carrib starting tomorrow ..

actually the motion of that ULL is a good indication of the motion our system would make should it become something and get a little stronger than the models are forecasting it o

Would interaction with that low cause the "system" to move a little more north than the ULL itself? Seems like the logical thing to me, but I'm learning.

[Stratosphere747]

Right now that ULL is moving off to the west, rather slowly.

[Praxus]

Well looks like the season may get started with a bang! We got this thing revving up now likely headed for the GOM; plus model agreement on that wave exiting africa now turning into something nasty and possibly threatening florida down the road.

[jaxfladude]

This season will not amount to much!!!!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

System south of Jamica is the one going to develop!!!!!!! Awesome surface convergence going on.

[jaxfladude]

This season will not amount to much!!!!

I hope it becomes a dull one from here on out no more Dora's Hugo's Andrew's 2004's 2005's and all the other historically bad hurricanes in history..

[Brent]

System south of Jamica is the one going to develop!!!!!!! Awesome surface convergence going on.

Yes!!!! I need something to track.

[Cyclenall]

This season will not amount to much!!!!

Have you ever said anything else other than that?

[jaxfladude]

System south of Jamica is the one going to develop!!!!!!! Awesome surface convergence going on.

Yes!!!! I need something to track.

Not if it enters the Gulf with favorable conditions for tropical development....

[jaxfladude]

This season will not amount to much!!!!

Have you ever said anything else other than that?

The answer is: 2004 and 2005....

[Cyclenall]

This season will not amount to much!!!!

Have you ever said anything else other than that?

The answer is: 2004 and 2005....

What about before both those seasons started? Did you think 2005 was going to be a dull year?

[Weatherfreak000]

This season will not amount to much!!!!

Have you ever said anything else other than that?

The answer is: 2004 and 2005....

About how many times do you need to be addressed? I hope a moderator will decide to begin deleting your posts if you continue to speak so ignorantly clearly without any meteorological evidence to base it from, period.

Yes, I have indeed been quite interested in a little area of disturbed weather forming in the NW Caribbean area. Something to look out for, no doubt.

[Aric Dunn]

System south of Jamica is the one going to develop!!!!!!! Awesome surface convergence going on.

thats what i said ealier today

[Aric Dunn]

and i do belive that there is a low forming just ssw of jamaica as we speak tonight may be interesting


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Stratosphere747]

and i do belive that there is a low forming just ssw of jamaica as we speak tonight may be interesting

I'm not sure Aric. Looks like that area is still under the influence of the ULL to the west. Possible, though that ULL needs to start moving at a faster clip than what it is doing now.

[Aric Dunn]

and i do belive that there is a low forming just ssw of jamaica as we speak tonight may be interesting

I'm not sure Aric. Looks like that area is still under the influence of the ULL to the west. Possible, though that ULL needs to start moving at a faster clip than what it is doing now.

of course it is... i also said that a few posts ago .. that we would continue to see is some shear influenced convection then the environment will improve

and that does not mean a surface low cant develop !! it may actually help one too develop

[Aric Dunn]

actaully i fairly confident on the surface low taking shape surface obs from jamaica and satellite as well as 925 mb vort maps possibly point towards a low forming


and i may become very confident later tonight

[Wx_Warrior]

I hope my brother is right for once (HAHA...J/K)...DUE WEST once in the GOM...DUE WEST

[Aric Dunn]

I hope my brother is right for once (HAHA...J/K)...DUE WEST once in the GOM...DUE WEST

yes i image so.. like the models are point out a northward component short term then west as it bumps into the ridge s more west to possible wnw motion after. unless the short wave trough ends up being a little stronger and drops a little further south .. but we will have to wait and see