System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[TheShrimper]

Hey Derek, have you seen alot of posts here originating from Hawaii? I haven't. Why don't you spend 100% of your time on something that has a 100% chance of effecting at least some of many that post here. Please direct your expertise in that direction instead of a non entity that in all actuality has no meaning, when something may ensue very close here to home. It is evident that you thrive on covering all bases, but please when there is an impending threat here, focus your efforts on your, mine and the 100% of the poster's backyards. The fact is, Flossie may not effect anyone, if it does it will dwarf in comparison to what may transpire HERE down the road. People care what may happen here and not points west of Hawaii, especially when our yard is encroached upon. TheShrimper.

[Jam151]

Hey Derek, have you seen alot of posts here originating from Hawaii? I haven't. Why don't you spend 100% of your time on something that has a 100% chance of effecting at least some of many that post here. Please direct your expertise in that direction instead of a non entity that in all actuality has no meaning, when something may ensue very close here to home. It is evident that you thrive on covering all bases, but please when there is an impending threat here, focus your efforts on your, mine and the 100% of the poster's backyards. The fact is, Flossie may not effect anyone, if it does it will dwarf in comparison to what may transpire HERE down the road. People care what may happen here and not points west of Hawaii, especially when our yard is encroached upon. TheShrimper.

No meaning? At last check, Hawaii is part of the United States of America and Derek issues products, which I believe just so happen get attention from people who live there.

[astrosbaseball22]

**EDITED OUT BY CHADTM80.. FIRSTLY DO NOT EVER CREATE A MAP LIKE THAT WITHOUT A DISCLAIMER.. SECONDLY EASY ON BOLD OFF THE WALL PREDICTIONS LIKE THAT WITH NOTHING TO BASE IT ON, AND WHEN THERE ISNT EVEN A STORM PRESENT AT THE TIME***

[chadtm80]

Hey Derek, have you seen alot of posts here originating from Hawaii? I haven't. Why don't you spend 100% of your time on something that has a 100% chance of effecting at least some of many that post here. Please direct your expertise in that direction instead of a non entity that in all actuality has no meaning, when something may ensue very close here to home. It is evident that you thrive on covering all bases, but please when there is an impending threat here, focus your efforts on your, mine and the 100% of the poster's backyards. The fact is, Flossie may not effect anyone, if it does it will dwarf in comparison to what may transpire HERE down the road. People care what may happen here and not points west of Hawaii, especially when our yard is encroached upon. TheShrimper.

uhh.. He dose pay attention to our backyard.. Have you been paying attention to it? Nothing there

[vaffie]

just remember look further west of jamaica could be a low forming now

Though I see what you're pointing at, I'm leaning towards a low forming south/southeast of Jamaica tonight. You can clearly see a mid-level circulation now there, and that's where the strongest convection has been and still is. Wind conditions in Kingston, Jamaica will say a lot about where a surface low is forming--so I'll be watching it.

[Derek Ortt]

I usually focus on the greater threat, which is currently Flossie. If something looks to be a greater threat than Flossie, the focus will change (we'll need at least a TD first)

This situation did arise in 2003 with Jimena while Grace was in the Gulf... there was more interest in the Jimena products than the Grace.

[Sanibel]

Just took an interesting shape on GHCC ir close-up. Piqued my dvorak senses. But 99L did the same thing. So see if it persists.

[wxman57]

There's a lot of energy heading for the western Caribbean now. With the ridge to the north, we have an excellent setup for potential development this weekend. My gut is saying this one is going to develop. Question is, how far north? If it develops farther south, then it'll cut across the southern Yucatan then southern BoC and probably never amount to much more than a TS or Cat 1. Farther north toward the northern Yucatan then it should have a good outflow channel and less land to bother it and it could become a quite strong hurricane. For now, most likely target would be Mexico, but I'd put the threat as far north as the mid TX coast. Louisiana and eastward are probably out of the picture due to the projected ridge over that area. Let's see if that convection persists through the night. If so, then we'll likely have the next invest tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

There's a lot of energy heading for the western Caribbean now. With the ridge to the north, we have an excellent setup for potential development this weekend. My gut is saying this one is going to develop. Question is, how far north? If it develops farther south, then it'll cut across the southern Yucatan then southern BoC and probably never amount to much more than a TS or Cat 1. Farther north toward the northern Yucatan then it should have a good outflow channel and less land to bother it and it could become a quite strong hurricane. For now, most likely target would be Mexico, but I'd put the threat as far north as the mid TX coast. Louisiana and eastward are probably out of the picture due to the projected ridge over that area. Let's see if that convection persists through the night. If so, then we'll likely have the next invest tomorrow.

that sounds right.. I agree ..

wow i agree with you whoa lol

[Coredesat]

The most recent QuikSCAT shows all east winds, but the ascending pass showed some 30-35 kt winds.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas20.png
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds20.png

No hints of a circulation or even a surface trough at this point, but the system is moving fairly slowly.

EDIT: EAST! They're EAST winds!

[chadtm80]

Maybe you should try it much more often

[miamicanes177]

I usually focus on the greater threat, which is currently Flossie. If something looks to be a greater threat than Flossie, the focus will change (we'll need at least a TD first)

Flossie will not make it to hurricane strength and will pass well south of Hawaii near minimal tropical storm strength according to the NHC. If something comes of this it will probably be bigger than Flossie as you said.

[Brent]

There's a lot of energy heading for the western Caribbean now. With the ridge to the north, we have an excellent setup for potential development this weekend. My gut is saying this one is going to develop. Question is, how far north? If it develops farther south, then it'll cut across the southern Yucatan then southern BoC and probably never amount to much more than a TS or Cat 1. Farther north toward the northern Yucatan then it should have a good outflow channel and less land to bother it and it could become a quite strong hurricane. For now, most likely target would be Mexico, but I'd put the threat as far north as the mid TX coast. Louisiana and eastward are probably out of the picture due to the projected ridge over that area. Let's see if that convection persists through the night. If so, then we'll likely have the next invest tomorrow.

Thanks for the input, it's always great to read.

[srainhoutx]

There's a lot of energy heading for the western Caribbean now. With the ridge to the north, we have an excellent setup for potential development this weekend. My gut is saying this one is going to develop. Question is, how far north? If it develops farther south, then it'll cut across the southern Yucatan then southern BoC and probably never amount to much more than a TS or Cat 1. Farther north toward the northern Yucatan then it should have a good outflow channel and less land to bother it and it could become a quite strong hurricane. For now, most likely target would be Mexico, but I'd put the threat as far north as the mid TX coast. Louisiana and eastward are probably out of the picture due to the projected ridge over that area. Let's see if that convection persists through the night. If so, then we'll likely have the next invest tomorrow.

Thanks wxman57. It does look interesting to say the least.

[Derek Ortt]

I do not at all agree with the NHC intensity forecast on Flossie, UNLESS that shear does impact it

a friendly hint about forecasting the tropics, Miamicanes... never say something will happen... I have been burned many times doing that

[wxman57]

One thing to add - what I don't see is any low developing out there now (as in tonight). You'll be able to tell when something really is developing out there. Probably won't see any low forming until Saturday or Sunday. Time for bed. Need to get my 6 hours sleep. Early day tomorrow (and likely for the next 2 months).

[MiamiensisWx]

I could be incorrect, but I see a well defined upper-level anticyclone becoming established over the system. I would expect a continued decrease in mid-level shear over the next 24 hours. The upper low to the west appears to be filling as it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula. It has been providing a good low-level environment for our central Caribbean system. There is a good source for low-level convergence and abundant mid-level diffluence. Look at the latest shortwave imagery. The current trends indicate increasing instability (i.e. favorable convective parameters) and a conducive overnight diurnal maximum. I definitely think we could eventually witness our next INVEST, IMO. The slow motion could help organization, too.

I think we should wait for a defined LLC before declaring a possible path. Currently, I do not see any signs of a low-level circulation, but I do think we won't wait very long for a sfc low formation. Note the persistent convective "pulse" SSE of Kingston, Jamaica. Low-level vorticity is greatest in that vicinity - if a LLC will form, I think this area should be monitored (near 16.4N and 76.9W). I think we should watch land and buoy obs near Jamaica - I think we could observe the beginning of a slow LLC formation within the next 24 to 46 hours. If convection steadily increases, it could occur sooner than we think - watch for NNE and WSW sfc winds. I do agree with wxman57 - there are no substantial signs of a sfc low, but I think we could observe the key early stages of a critical sfc low formation within the next few days.

What do you think?

[Sanibel]

The key thing about this disturbance is the fact that it isn't whipping along like 99L. That gives it a better chance to cook up over those warm SST's. This year is so difficult that if it formed or poofed would be no surprise to me equally...

Forgot to add that I think the ULL over Yucatan inhibits this disturbance rather than enhances it as some think. A ULL positioned in front of a weak disturbance in the tropical flow in the Caribbean strips it instead of venting or boosting it.

[weatherguru18]

After looking at the gfs 500mb winds, the high gets about as far east as Tulsa, then it shifts right back to where it is. I'm calling my shot...Tampico, in the kitchen, with the candle stick.

[Extremeweatherguy]

After looking at the gfs 500mb winds, the high gets about as far east as Tulsa, then it shifts right back to where it is. I'm calling my shot...Tampico, in the kitchen, with the candle stick.

what time period are you looking at and what model run? The 18z GFS shows the center of 500mb high weakening slightly and moving west by mid next week:

Next Wed = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

Next Thurs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

The 0z run is coming out right now though, so it will be interesting to see what it says..