GFS continues to develop African wave

[x-y-no]

18z GFS - second fish run in a row.

End of the run it has another low forming in the eastern Caribbean and tracking up towards the Carlinas.

[jimvb]

Ignore the map from a GFS run showing a hurricane hitting the Carolinas in my post on page 2 of this thread, where I said "gulp". The graphic changed when 24 hours occurred and another 18Z run occurred. I didn't think it would do that. I thought the graphic would be on the Storm2k servers and be untouchable by NOAA. Next time I will have to post it to my own website first and reference that.

Latest run shows a hit near New York City. Just what the Big Apple needs. Right after the Tornado Worm in Brooklyn.

[Blown Away]

The monster ridge must be retreating once this system starts to get close to the EC.

[Weatherfreak14]

You cant really guess at all where it is to go, all we can say now that it could be a flordia, Carolinia, Gulf coast or a fish storm. LOL

[benny]

You cant really guess at all where it is to go, all we can say now that it could be a flordia, Carolinia, Gulf coast or a fish storm. LOL

I wouldn't even bet on it forming!!! I remember several systems in 2005 and 2006 that the GFS was cranking as soon as they got off the coast, and they never did anything but become a wave. Of course, The UKMET and ECMWF are also on board with some sort of development, so that does lend some creedance to the GFS. I do think something will happen, but not develop nearly as fast as the GFS indicates.

[windstorm99]

The level of consistency being displayed by the GFS is amazing on its development of the african coast.

[cycloneye]

All is expectation about what will the 00z run of GFS will have not only about the soon to emerge West African wave,but about if it joins the other models about a Caribbean/GOM system.The 00z GFS run is starting to roll.

[cycloneye]

12 hours

In 12 hours already GFS has the low emerging the African Coast.

24 hours

In 24 hours.

[Coredesat]

That would be this, I imagine:

[cycloneye]

36 hours

[Anthonyl]

Question?? The modles seem to indicate a more northerly component in the westwarsd movement of this prospective cyclone, is there some major weakness in the High Pressure Ridge which will alow this motion.
Or is it just a forcasted event in the upper air pattern?

[cycloneye]

48 hours

[cycloneye]

60 hours

72 hours

Nothing very strong yet as it moves west.

[Recurve]

Yikes. Three lows in the Caribbean and Cuba moistening up?

[cycloneye]

Pressure drops at 90 hours in this 00z run.

90 hours

[cheezyWXguy]

60 hours

72 hours

Nothing very strong yet as it moves west.

Check out 66hr if you want to see its diurnal pressure min, which is 1004mb, as opposed to the 1007 in hour 72

[Recurve]

BTW, has this come up yet? I know it's the CMC at 132 hours, but it sees the wave developing and....hello! what's that over Florida?

[skysummit]

Yea, that came out many hours ago. That mess over Florida is the CMC's version of what it thinks will happen in the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

102 hours

1001 mbs at 102 hours.

[Recurve]

Lovely. Do not like where it's showing the ridge ending.