System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I could be incorrect, but I see a well defined upper-level anticyclone becoming established over the system. I would expect a continued decrease in mid-level shear over the next 24 hours. The upper low to the west appears to be filling as it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula. It has been providing a good low-level environment for our central Caribbean system. There is a good source for low-level convergence and abundant mid-level diffluence. Look at the latest shortwave imagery. The current trends indicate increasing instability (i.e. favorable convective parameters) and a conducive overnight diurnal maximum. I definitely think we could eventually witness our next INVEST, IMO. The slow motion could help organization, too.

I think we should wait for a defined LLC before declaring a possible path. Currently, I do not see any signs of a low-level circulation, but I do think we won't wait very long for a sfc low formation. Note the persistent convective "pulse" SSE of Kingston, Jamaica. Low-level vorticity is greatest in that vicinity - if a LLC will form, I think this area should be monitored (near 16.4N and 76.9W). I think we should watch land and buoy obs near Jamaica - I think we could observe the beginning of a slow LLC formation within the next 24 to 46 hours. If convection steadily increases, it could occur sooner than we think - watch for NNE and WSW sfc winds. I do agree with wxman57 - there are no substantial signs of a sfc low, but I think we could observe the key early stages of a critical sfc low formation within the next few days.

What do you think?

I tried to check the buoys near Jamaica. There are on a waiting list for repairs. Nearest working buoy is West of Caymans.

[TheShrimper]

Yes Chad, I have been paying close attention to it, have you? Are you aware of how quick things can happen under the present established parameters...obviously not. And if there is "nothing happening", why do you feel the need to repute what may ensue? Few here care what is going down in the Pacific, that's a fact. We are more concerned on what's going on HERE. According to you, there is nothing, am I right in my assumption? I beg to differ, as alot of the others will. If there is nothing worthy, lets not have an associated thread pertaining to it then, or do you want to wait till somethings knocking on your door and ask for the explanations after the fact. You know better than that, do you not? Aloha,TheShrimper

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yes Chad, I have been paying close attention to it, have you? Are you aware of how quick things can happen under the present established parameters...obviously not. And if there is "nothing happening", why do you feel the need to repute what may ensue? Few here care what is going down in the Pacific, that's a fact. We are more concerned on what's going on HERE. According to you, there is nothing, am I right in my assumption? I beg to differ, as alot of the others will. If there is nothing worthy, lets not have an associated thread pertaining to it then, or do you want to wait till somethings knocking on your door and ask for the explanations after the fact. You know better than that, do you not? Aloha,TheShrimper

I've been intoxicated in Oahu. I know getting a big storm to hit HI from the SE is hard, but maybe this time it'll happen.

I have always wondered if home construction standards are lax in HI. I saw a lot of video of roofs lifting off houses in Kaui, and they didn't look well attached.

[astrosbaseball22]

this is from wunderground!! wow !!!

[skysummit]

Yea...this past week of ridiculous heat has really BOILED the Gulf. All across the south today, heat indexes reach as high as 122 in Pascagoula, MS, and at Audubon Zoo in NOLA. At my place, it got to 117. The gulf is cooking now.

[astrosbaseball22]

Yea...this past week of ridiculous heat has really BOILED the Gulf. All across the south today, heat indexes reach as high as 122 in Pascagoula, MS, and at Audubon Zoo in NOLA. At my place, it got to 117. The gulf is cooking now.

if this does form could it reach cat 4-5 with all that 90 degree water!

[El Nino]

this is from wunderground!! wow !!!

And what about the 26° isotherm depth ?

[Opal storm]

Yea...this past week of ridiculous heat has really BOILED the Gulf. All across the south today, heat indexes reach as high as 122 in Pascagoula, MS, and at Audubon Zoo in NOLA. At my place, it got to 117. The gulf is cooking now.

if this does form could it reach cat 4-5 with all that 90 degree water!

That's a big stretch don't you think? Conditions aloft really determine how strong a storm gets, not the SST's.

[ROCK]

Yea...this past week of ridiculous heat has really BOILED the Gulf. All across the south today, heat indexes reach as high as 122 in Pascagoula, MS, and at Audubon Zoo in NOLA. At my place, it got to 117. The gulf is cooking now.

if this does form could it reach cat 4-5 with all that 90 degree water!

Whoa, slow down there Astro buddy. .........Lets see what we have in a few days......

[fci]

Yes Chad, I have been paying close attention to it, have you? Are you aware of how quick things can happen under the present established parameters...obviously not. And if there is "nothing happening", why do you feel the need to repute what may ensue? Few here care what is going down in the Pacific, that's a fact. We are more concerned on what's going on HERE. According to you, there is nothing, am I right in my assumption? I beg to differ, as alot of the others will. If there is nothing worthy, lets not have an associated thread pertaining to it then, or do you want to wait till somethings knocking on your door and ask for the explanations after the fact. You know better than that, do you not? Aloha,TheShrimper

Sorry, but Derek does Tropical Forecasting for more than where you, I and He live.

You are asking him to spend time on an area that isn't a Low yet, and isn't even an Invest yet as opposed to a named storm that potentially affects Hawaii (part of the US).
So for now, watch your Local Met (who probably isn't even mentioning it yet)

[chadtm80]

Yes Chad, I have been paying close attention to it, have you? Are you aware of how quick things can happen under the present established parameters...obviously not. And if there is "nothing happening", why do you feel the need to repute what may ensue? Few here care what is going down in the Pacific, that's a fact. We are more concerned on what's going on HERE. According to you, there is nothing, am I right in my assumption? I beg to differ, as alot of the others will. If there is nothing worthy, lets not have an associated thread pertaining to it then, or do you want to wait till somethings knocking on your door and ask for the explanations after the fact. You know better than that, do you not? Aloha,TheShrimper

Gee thanks TheCrabby... err.. I mean, TheShrimper, for putting me in my place.

[Ed Mahmoud]

this is from wunderground!! wow !!!

And what about the 26° isotherm depth ?

For a storm that keeps a healthy pace through the Gulf, the water depths, from what I understand, aren't as crucial, becuase the storm has only limited time to churn up cooler water from depth.

Of course, the models that do develop this don't race it across the Gulf, so lack of deep warm water is more critical. BTW, over at the tropical cyclone heat potential page, there is a channel of deep warm water that points the way from the Yucatan channel right up to New Orleans per depth 26º and TCHP maps.

[ROCK]

this is from wunderground!! wow !!!

And what about the 26° isotherm depth ?

For a storm that keeps a healthy pace through the Gulf, the water depths, from what I understand, aren't as crucial, becuase the storm has only limited time to churn up cooler water from depth.

Of course, the models that do develop this don't race it across the Gulf, so lack of deep warm water is more critical. BTW, over at the tropical cyclone heat potential page, there is a channel of deep warm water that points the way from the Yucatan channel right up to New Orleans per depth 26º and TCHP maps.

that would be the LC that extends up towards LA........Katrina and Rita know it very well....

[Javlin]

Yes Chad, I have been paying close attention to it, have you? Are you aware of how quick things can happen under the present established parameters...obviously not. And if there is "nothing happening", why do you feel the need to repute what may ensue? Few here care what is going down in the Pacific, that's a fact. We are more concerned on what's going on HERE. According to you, there is nothing, am I right in my assumption? I beg to differ, as alot of the others will. If there is nothing worthy, lets not have an associated thread pertaining to it then, or do you want to wait till somethings knocking on your door and ask for the explanations after the fact. You know better than that, do you not? Aloha,TheShrimper

Sorry, but Derek does Tropical Forecasting for more than where you, I and He live.

You are asking him to spend time on an area that isn't a Low yet, and isn't even an Invest yet as opposed to a named storm that potentially affects Hawaii (part of the US).
So for now, watch your Local Met (who probably isn't even mentioning it yet)

That I would have too agree with and if and when it does develop something then let's look at it otherwise its a curiosity.

[wxmann_91]

And what about the 26° isotherm depth ?

OHC is very favorable right now, except at the NGOM coast of course

[tailgater]

Which thread is this, Flossie or Carribean, Derek has already stated he doesn't think this will develop so he can concernate on other areas, but I'd like watch this area without ridicule.

[Derek Ortt]

I never said this would not develop... I just said right now the threat is greater for Flossie and that I am having trouble seeing what exactly the models are. If Flossie collapses or this blows up into a major, then I'll pay far more attention to this Carib disturbance

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian model (aka The Crazy Uncle) shows big Gulf storm, again.

[Extremeweatherguy]

--deleted--

[Extremeweatherguy]

The Canadian path remains interesting too. It shoots the system due north toward FL and then sharply turns it west toward the south Texas or upper Mexican coast. The scary part though is the WNW jog it shows the storm taking at the end. I guess we will see what happens..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007081000&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation