GFS continues to develop African wave

[cycloneye]

120 hours

Its in the 40w longitud by 120 hours.

[cycloneye]

144 hours

998 mbs.

156 hours

Moving more WNW at 156 hours.

[Ed Mahmoud]

144 hours

998 mbs.

Based on the coarse resolution required for a global model to run out two weeks, the actual pressure 'predicted' could be lower than what is depicted in the isobar map?

[cycloneye]

168 hours

Above is GFS in 168 hours.It looks like it will miss the Leeward Islands as it has done in past runs.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

This may be a big one for the East Coast.

[cycloneye]

192 hours

I take back the Leeward statement as it will be very close to them.

[JonathanBelles]

This looks much more impressive that I had thought. At 216 it is moving in on the Bahamas.

[chadtm80]

[Normandy]

Looks to be setting up for a close recurve again. I do know one thing, for the sake of the GFS's credibility, this better develop.

[cycloneye]

Looks to be setting up for a close recurve again. I do know one thing, for the sake of the GFS's credibility, this better develop.

Agree.If this does not develop,then GFS will lose many followers.

[skysummit]

Another friendly run for the U.S. Mainland....but we all know it's going to change many, many times.

[srainhoutx]

Looks to be setting up for a close recurve again. I do know one thing, for the sake of the GFS's credibility, this better develop.

Agree.If this does not develop,then GFS will lose many followers.

Been a tough year for GFS already.

[chadtm80]

[cycloneye]

336 hours

No U.S. landfall.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Could be a fisher!

[miamicanes177]

336 hours

No U.S. landfall.

I think this is very bad news for the US actually. The chances of the GFS being right over 300 hours out is slim to none. I'll take the opposite of what the GFS is saying at this time period. Of course the opposite is bad for the US. 99.9% of the time 300+ hours out will not yield a correct solution.

[wxmann_91]

Looks to be setting up for a close recurve again. I do know one thing, for the sake of the GFS's credibility, this better develop.

Agree.If this does not develop,then GFS will lose many followers.

It shouldn't have many followers in the first place. They don't call it Good For S*** for nothing!

I think the GFS isn't picking up on the stratocumulus deck very well... and it could be initializing the wave a little too strongly. Suspect this will not develop before hitting 40W. Of course, given that the 850mb winds are straight from the east, this could enter the Caribbean if it remains weak, reducing chances of any recurvature before affecting some land mass.


Note... when I mean followers... I mean people who take it verbatim. We're casually following it, but obviously not verbatimely (sp?), so my first line doesn't include most people here.

[Normandy]

My issue is that it has this thing developing right when it hits the Atlantic Ocean.....thats absurd really, and for that reason alone Im not getting tooo excited about this GFS scenario. The wave looks pretty ragged right now, but it does have a very good circulation despite it lacking convection....and its not like the SST's are boiling hot near the African coast. Its almost like the GFS is treating the Eastern Atlantic like the GOM or Carribean. Utter nonsense.

EDIT:
Man I love this color with my avatar.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

We're not talking about a hurricane. It doesn't keep it at or continuously above tropical storm strength until near 30W and doesn't form it into and hold it as a moderate tropical storm or stronger until 40W. And not a hurricane until perhaps 55W or further.

Text data for 8/10 0Z run:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... 2007081000

You do not need the extremely warm, high heat content, waters of the Gulf or Carib for that.

[Normandy]

And neither was I. The fact that the GFS suggests that this will even be a depression upon exiting the African coast is absurd.