System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Any links to Navy Nogaps other than FSU experimental TC genesis page?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NOGAPS...

From FNMOC:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... p_troplant

Cyclone phase analysis from the FSU page:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/index.html
Shows a path from the SW Carib in the 12Z run. (Hard to get to the page in that run because another numbered low is on top.)

NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/
I like to be able to view the pressures.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

CMC 8/10 0Z Run: In 7 days shows a strengthening category 2 hurricane about to hit Houston/Galveston.

All links expire in 12 hours...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/97.html
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif
144 Hours: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_144.jpg
144 Hours: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... dd_100.gif
168 Hours: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_168_e.html
192 Hours: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_192_e.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

More 8/10 0Z run models:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif
NOGAPS makes it a weak tropical storm.

Main sites:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... bal_e.html
http://meteocentre.com/models/modelsgem_e.html

[Scorpion]

Wow... 975 mb is impressive for a global

[Rainband]

Sorry but I like the hard left turn. Any place but here.

[Brent]

Sorry but I like the hard left turn. Any place but here.

Yeah... I forsee a left turn or just a general west to west-northwest track towards Texas or Mexico. I can't see Florida being threatened by this due to the ridge which seems to be in no hurry to go anywhere.

975 mb for a global is amazing...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wow... 975 mb is impressive for a global

This would be literal, not the last closed isobar.

[weatherguru18]

<GULP!> looks to head right for my area (Houston). I don't see how "dean" would make it here though. Last I checked that ridge will still be in place. I'm still calling for a far south TX or Mexico landfall...if in fact anything develops.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Looks like we might be seeing a center now.

NOAA Western Atlantic:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl.html

Zoomed up NASA IR:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 18&lon=-80

[Stratosphere747]

Are you thinking due west of the latest blow-up of convection?

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't know if you guys noticed this, but it's about to run into an pretty good looking upper level high.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think that if convection continues, we'll see an invest out of this in the next day or so.

Pretty constant convection with this feature.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I got as much of a chance of gettiing a million dollars tomarrow as this system getting to 975 millibars. This thing is already fading or weaking with its convection. I'm sorry but this is not impressive. It won't bust the cap.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also there is a ULL at 23 north/71 west. This area of upper level low pressure is moving westard with it. A Anticyclone is just southwest of the "distrabance". I feel that this area of thunderstorms maybe possible MLC are caused by divergence of the two area's of shear coming together with in that area. Don't look for development. Gfs has a hard time with forecasting cyclone development.

[Jam151]

I got as much of a chance of gettiing a million dollars tomarrow as this system getting to 975 millibars. This thing is already fading or weaking with its convection. I'm sorry but this is not impressive. It won't bust the cap.

It wasn't supposed to develop this early anyway.

[Nimbus]

Don't expect much northwestern movement yet since its just a surface feature. Next flareup will probably be closer to the axis of the caribbean ridge that is building in. That is a little north of the CMC genesis point.

Mid term forecast depending on how quickly the system spins up it should be in the gulf under favorable conditions early next week.

Only way this storm would effect any areas east of Texas is if it stalled mid gulf and developed into a deep system which pumped the ridge further south than currently projected. In that case it might eventually move north or northwest of the ridge axis. I don't think the models are anywhere near a good solution for this storm yet, as is typical with slow movers.

[Meso]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100913
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...
ARE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JUST NORTH OF
JAMAICA SOUTHWARD. ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

[DrewFL]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
640 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2007

SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING A VISITOR IN THE GULF
TOWARD THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. SHOULD IT EVEN OCCUR...UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD STILL BE OVERHEAD (KNOCK ON WOOD) WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME MIND COMFORT FOR NOW.

[skysummit]

From NOLA...do they actually believe the high will weaken, or retreat west by mid week? Bob Breck also mentioned this yesterday evening.

".LONG TERM...
A RESURGANCE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF STARTING AROUND MID WEEK. A MODERATE TROPICAL WAVE
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AS WELL HELPING TO
BRING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL INTO A SAFER HEAT INDEX ZONE
AROUND MID WEEK."

[DrewFL]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
107 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007


LOW FORMING/MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...
THE NAM HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEMS EXPECTED TRACK
OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...THOUGH ITS 09/12Z RUN WAS A STRONG
OUTLIER. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A BIT WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE RETROGRADING THROUGH
THE AREA WHICH IT HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH OVER
ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE GFS IS WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM IN
THE SURFACE PATTERN...BUT APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY QUICKENING THE
PROGRESSION OF ITS 850 HPA REFLECTION OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS...SHOWING MORE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAN A SURFACE LOW.



Starting to get talked up a little more today.