System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[DrewFL]

Maybe NO is looking at the trough sagging down early week far enough to push the high west.


Maybe this is what they are thinking. From the Miami discussion:


LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH DISPLACING THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER
WEST. THIS WILL KEEP S. FL UNDER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK.

[ronjon]

IWIC Worldwide Tropical Weather Discussion - August 10 2007 - 01:00 UTC

The potential for tropical cyclone formation in both the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Atlantic remains the central focal point of this evening's discussion. Last night, it was stated that development was not a guarantee, but the probability was increasing for both areas. 24 hours later, we're confident enough to say that Dean will likely form in the eastern Atlantic within 2-3 days, and Erin may soon follow in the Gulf of Mexico.

While the first storm in this apparent burst of activity may form in the east Atlantic, the potential Gulf storm will continue to garner the most emphasis for a second consecutive evening due to the certainty that it will impact land. The tropical wave that will be responsible for the disturbed weather in the Gulf next week is still south of the Dominican Republic and in the eastern Caribbean. The wave has become more convectively active over the last 24 hours, but development in the short term still isn't anticipated. A mid to upper trough just north of the Caribbean is producing moderate westerly winds aloft over the region, thus keeping the wave in check over the next few days. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge is present just north of Colombia. If this ridge were over the eastern Caribbean, then the beginning stages of development would likely be underway. However, the wave axis and upper ridge should not become vertically stacked until the wave has entered the far northwest Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. The upper ridge will have a difficult time spreading northwest until the upper low currently over the Yucatan Channel moves into the western Gulf. Once the upper ridge finally moves into position, the low level easterly wave will have caught up with the anticyclone. Once firmly established under the favorable pocket of divergent winds aloft, tropical cyclone formation may soon commence thereafter.

The number of models that are indicating Gulf storm formation haven't changed since yesterday, but they have become more bullish. The 12Z NOGAPS model now depicts surface low formation over the Isle of Youth and southeast Gulf Monday and Tuesday (Days 4-5). The NGP then depicts gradual strengthening into possibly a minimal tropical cyclone as the low center turns west and moves inland over Mexico in 7-8 days. The 12Z ECMWF is very similar. It depicts a broad area of low pressure passing over the northern half of the Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday and entering the southwest Gulf on Wednesday. The Euro then shows gradual development into a minimal tropical cyclone before making landfall in Mexico within 8 days. The Canadian model also continues to show Gulf development, but the track forecast remains highly suspect. The model develops two separate low centers, and such features would interact with each other and highly affect the dominant storm's path. On the other hand, the Canadian does seem to have the correct overall idea in that it maintains a mid-level high to the north, which would result in a westerly track. The GFS continues to show nothing more than a broad area of low pressure, most of which remaining south of the Gulf of Mexico. Incorrect steering wind analysis and the resulting amount of land interaction in the GFS runs may be limiting development. The same can be said about the latest UKMET run.

In summary, several global models depict tropical development once the eastern Caribbean wave enters the southern Gulf. Furthermore, the same models are indicating any tropical cyclone that does form will turn west and aim for northeast Mexico. Both the possibility of southern Gulf development and a turn toward the west in the general direction of Mexico seem legit after analyzing the overall pattern. The wave in question will move beneath a favorable ridge aloft as it enters the northwest Caribbean and southern Gulf, making tropical development a good possibility. The main steering parameter will become the large dome of high pressure that has been stationary over the central and southeast United States once the system moves into the Gulf. There are no signs that this ridge will weaken or leave the central Gulf Coast through the period. Even the models that don't depict tropical development agree that this ridge isn't going to budge. Therefore, any storm that does develop will threaten northeast Mexico, and we cannot entirely rule out coastal Texas. Formation still isn't a guarantee, but a depression or named storm would be a good bet. It's too early to be throwing around the word "hurricane", especially considering this is a medium range forecast and the model consensus could be better. That of course could change.

[cajungal]

From NOLA...do they actually believe the high will weaken, or retreat west by mid week? Bob Breck also mentioned this yesterday evening.

".LONG TERM...
A RESURGANCE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF STARTING AROUND MID WEEK. A MODERATE TROPICAL WAVE
SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AS WELL HELPING TO
BRING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL INTO A SAFER HEAT INDEX ZONE
AROUND MID WEEK."

I heard that too Sky, by Bob Breck. I guess timing is everything!

[ronjon]

The 00Z ECMWF model run now shows the tropical cyclone moving northward in the western GOM from the BOC into the NE coastal TX area. Too soon to tell with any certainty but the trend from the Euro is now more northward than westward into MX.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

The 00Z ECMWF model run now shows the tropical cyclone moving northward in the western GOM from the BOC into the NE coastal TX area. Too soon to tell with any certainty but the trend from the Euro is now more northward than westward into MX.

this is the second model to show the upper tx coast, hope its not a tend but this far out, way too soon too tell....... early this year I felt there would a strike on the texas coast somewhere. from the mouth of the rio grande to the mouth of the sabine is alot of area! jmo

[Windsurfer_NYC]

woah, where'd that convection go? dare I say *poof*?

[storms in NC]

woah, where'd that convection go? dare I say *poof*?

I think it did go poofy. Who is the genie here?LOL

[HouTXmetro]

LOL, what happened.... ?

Do we have another 99L that fades during the day. If that's the case I'm not expecting development.

[lrak]

everything is poof this season. "goes and get longboard out"

[skysummit]

Was development expected today??? NO...so disregard those posts calling for a depression by this afternoon. Patience people...not until the weekend into early next week.

[DESTRUCTION5]

There is an ULL in the SE Bahama's..THis Feature must come into play and hamper development in some way IMO...Pro's please chime in..

[dwg71]

Was development expected today??? NO...so disregard those posts calling for a depression by this afternoon. Patience people...not until the weekend into early next week.

The weekend is fast approaching and wouldn't have to form from some convective activity? I think you will see some models jumping off formation today, jmo.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, I have been saying all along that this was not going to develop in the short term...and JB has been saying that too. The possible development should come early next week near the tip of the yucatan or in the southern GOM (May be even the BOC if the EURO is right).

[SouthFloridawx]

CMC looks like it develops it on the 12th.

[Rainband]

I hope this high sticks around Looks like it may protect Florida for a bit

[Derek Ortt]

the convection that just moved off of SA is what the models are picking up on

[SouthFloridawx]

the convection that just moved off of SA is what the models are picking up on

Could it be the interaction of the convection, and the wave axis?

[Derek Ortt]

maybe... but the models tended to be developing the SA feature on its own

[Meso]

NAM is deepening it more than before.

[Derek Ortt]

looks like a very small LLC near 13.2N and 74.7W

http://www.nwhhc.com/caribdist.gif

for some reason, the cursor did not show up when I saved the image