Global Models Thread for 90L

[SouthFloridawx]

Forecast Model Output: CMC, 00Z and 12Z/NOGAPS 00Z and 12Z /UKMET 00,06,12,18Z/GFS 00,06,12,18/GFDL - When storm is active.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Well, there is no doubt about it... Although some have said that, it could be just the GFS on crack again. I think it's that time of the season, where things star to crank up. Some models showing development in the gulf and the others certainly showing development in the Atlantic, heading westward. It also, doesn't look like we're going to get an El Nino either...

Although I don't really believe the long range gfs, with the 500mb falling apart out of the middle of no where.

Are you guys ready?

Something tells, me it's about to get interesting.

[flwxwatcher]

I agree about the GFS just having the 500 mb fall apart. Its had a habit of doing that in the long range and I suspect its getting overly trough happy again. The EURO at day 10 implies the storm misses a trough with high pressure building back in. Alot of time to watch the potential Cape Verde system though

[flwxwatcher]

Read J.B.'s column this morning and he brought up this point about the GFS Model.

did you know the only model in the ensemble runs (over 20 of them) that recurves the African wave is the one you see, the operational model

[El Nino]

Hmmmm ... I think I'll be difficult to concentrate myself on my work next week

[Blown Away]

Are there any models that carry this system into the Gulf? I know the GFS recurves near the Bahamas.

[SouthFloridawx]

06Z Run GFS

[Meso]

None of the other models go that far out really..

[SouthFloridawx]

Are there any models that carry this system into the Gulf? I know the GFS recurves near the Bahamas.

Well ECMWF @ 240 Hours... about the same position as GFS. Only a little farther east.

[SouthFloridawx]

I agree about the GFS just having the 500 mb fall apart. Its had a habit of doing that in the long range and I suspect its getting overly trough happy again. The EURO at day 10 implies the storm misses a trough with high pressure building back in. Alot of time to watch the potential Cape Verde system though

Right, looking at the 168th on the ECMWF, we see 594mb Ridge to the northwest of the system, with troughing in the NE/Mid Atl. US.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_0z/ecmwfloop.html#picture
And at hour 240 we see our system to the north of the Islands, and high pressure building back in to the NW, as the trough pulls out.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!240!North%20hemisphere!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007081000!!chart.gif

[jimvb]

Blown_away, two runs of the GFS did send the storm into the Gulf or farther south or implied such a sending. One of them called for a bulls-eye hit on Miami, from which I suppose it would go into the Gulf. Another one had such a strong Bermuda high pressure ridge that the storm went far south into the Caribbean and hit Guatemala and southern Mexico.

[wjs3]

I agree about the GFS just having the 500 mb fall apart. Its had a habit of doing that in the long range and I suspect its getting overly trough happy again. The EURO at day 10 implies the storm misses a trough with high pressure building back in. Alot of time to watch the potential Cape Verde system though

Right, looking at the 168th on the ECMWF, we see 594mb Ridge to the northwest of the system, with troughing in the NE/Mid Atl. US.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_0z/ecmwfloop.html#picture
And at hour 240 we see our system to the north of the Islands, and high pressure building back in to the NW, as the trough pulls out.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!240!North%20hemisphere!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007081000!!chart.gif

Please be careful. That is not a 594 mb ridge. Those isopleths are lines of constant height, not pressure. The 594 you see indicates that the 500 MB pressure will be at 594 dekameters. Your interpretation is correct, of course.

WJS3

[Steve H.]

Again, don't miss the point of the Jimvb post, only ONE of the ensemble members recurve the storm, that being the operational run of the GFS. Me thinks there will be fairly strong ridging during that time period across the western Atlantic, possibly a handover to the bermuda high that would may allow the aledged storm to find a temporary weakness toward the wnw, but get turned back toward the west at the end of the period. We've seen that in the past where the GFS likes to turn the storms out to sea, only to have them end up further west than the initial runs. Will be interesting to see how this all pans out. Meanwhile, I think I'll start stocking up on a few things, which I should've done 2 months ago

[ronjon]

Yes I will be watching the Euro intensely over the next week to 10 days to watch for trends in the 500 mb pattern. Of interest at 240 hrs is that small UL ridge that the Euro is trying to build off the SE coast. If that ridge expands eastward than that would block any northward recurvature and send the storm riding W-NW along the underside of it. Too many factors and too much time for any of this to be more than speculation at this point. Heck, right now we are talking about a phantom storm since it hasn't even formed yet.

[ronjon]

Again, don't miss the point of the Jimvb post, only ONE of the ensemble members recurve the storm, that being the operational run of the GFS. Me thinks there will be fairly strong ridging during that time period across the western Atlantic, possibly a handover to the bermuda high that would may allow the aledged storm to find a temporary weakness toward the wnw, but get turned back toward the west at the end of the period. We've seen that in the past where the GFS likes to turn the storms out to sea, only to have them end up further west than the initial runs. Will be interesting to see how this all pans out. Meanwhile, I think I'll start stocking up on a few things, which I should've done 2 months ago

Good post steve - the GFS does have its bias to weaken ridges too fast or deepen troughs too much. I think the NOGAPs bias is in the other direction. Long-term, I've found the ECMWF model to be superior in medium range Upper Level patterns. One thing to note also - if this storm really deepens into a major hurricane, those synoptics tend to "pump up" the ridging adjacent to them.

[gatorcane]

Yes I will be watching the Euro intensely over the next week to 10 days to watch for trends in the 500 mb pattern. Of interest at 240 hrs is that small UL ridge that the Euro is trying to build off the SE coast. If that ridge expands eastward than that would block any northward recurvature and send the storm riding W-NW along the underside of it. Too many factors and too much time for any of this to be more than speculation at this point. Heck, right now we are talking about a phantom storm since it hasn't even formed yet.

YOu have to be a little bit worried with the consistency of the models. By that I mean they are predicting a hurricane to approach the the US from the east.....of course where it will hit is still up in the air...but wow this could get interesting...

Anybody from Florida to Maine and also the Caribbean islands should closely monitor this situation..

[gatorcane]

Blown_away, two runs of the GFS did send the storm into the Gulf or farther south or implied such a sending. One of them called for a bulls-eye hit on Miami, from which I suppose it would go into the Gulf. Another one had such a strong Bermuda high pressure ridge that the storm went far south into the Caribbean and hit Guatemala and southern Mexico.

Anybody in Florida getting a bit anxious since several runs are showing South Florida hits...they do change on some runs but South Florida has been the target by a couple of models now.

[Steve]

>>Anybody from Florida to Maine and also the Caribbean islands should closely monitor this situation..

I'll fix it for you: Anyone from Central America around the Gulf and up the East Coast of the U.S. and A. to Maine should be monitoring the situation. And if necessary, those in Eastern Canada may need to follow along too.



Steve

[gatorcane]

>>Anybody from Florida to Maine and also the Caribbean islands should closely monitor this situation..

I'll fix it for you: Anyone from Central America around the Gulf and up the East Coast of the U.S. and A. to Maine should be monitoring the situation. And if necessary, those in Eastern Canada may need to follow along too.



Steve

So any landmass West of 60W and north of 10N which spans about 10,000 miles lol.

[Derek Ortt]

no gatorcane, there is no reaosn to be nervous about a 3 week run, which by mathematical constraints is more useless than German paper money during the Weimar Republic

[caneseddy]

Im here in Miami and am not worried yet since IF (and that's a big if) something were to form and come this way, it would at least be at least a week and a half at the earliest; I'll start paying much closer attention when it gets to the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles (if it makes it), but until now, I'm going to go with my regular routine (and yes, I've been prepared since earlier this season )