Global Models Thread for 90L

[Rieyeuxs]

I hate to be the party pooper, but the models have been developing storms for the last 6 weeks and nothing has come of them. I've been looking at the waves coming off the coast, but I've also been reading the NHC daily and they aren't excited about anything.

DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE ATLC SO THAT NEITHER FEATURE IS ABLE TO GENERATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1024 MB HIGH
SW OF THE AZORES AND N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N41W TO A 1022 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N45W CONTINUING SW TO THE W ATLC NEAR 26N75W.

Any CV storm would have more hostile conditions to deal with on the trip across. As has been quoted a million times already on this board, long range model runs have about as much chance of coming true as using a Ouji board.

The season may not be over, the there needs to be some majors adjustments in the Atlantic climo before any waves have a decent chance of it.

[SouthFloridawx]

no gatorcane, there is no reaosn to be nervous about a 3 week run, which by mathematical constraints is more useless than German paper money during the Weimar Republic

Although they probably have some kind of value, due to historical proportions now... lol

[gatorcane]

no gatorcane, there is no reaosn to be nervous about a 3 week run, which by mathematical constraints is more useless than German paper money during the Weimar Republic

Lol, funny. Yes I know it is WAY too early to tell what will unfold with a system that hasn't even developed yet.

Wasn't the old saying:

"Beat back the HUN with liberty bonds?"

[Sanibel]

I hate to be the party pooper, but the models have been developing storms for the last 6 weeks and nothing has come of them. I've been looking at the waves coming off the coast, but I've also been reading the NHC daily and they aren't excited about anything

Thank you Rieyeuxs. It seems rather obvious with a dry ITCZ from the very feature you are talking about.

[Meso]

Someone tell me one time this year when the GFS has been so consistent on something and had the backing of 3 other models as well as the EURO?

[Sanibel]

We'll see if the "king marches naked" off the coast of Africa soon...

[SouthFloridawx]

It's important to remember that conditions aren't always, a constant. Also looking at the the latest SAL analysis below, we see that it is certainly not as potent as it has been in the very recent past.

[storms in NC]

We'll see if the "king marches naked" off the coast of Africa soon...

I think we need to start watching it after 3-4 day being in the water. I don't know if it will develop or not. And as far as being ready NO I haven't bought the first thing. When I see that there is something coming this way then I will go and buy stuff.
I need a new roof on my house first before any storm comes our way. Hubby thinks it will get done on it's own.LOL. He said he will do it this week_end or next one we will see. But I don't think we have any thing to worried about with all this fronts that are come though all the time this summer.

Floyd was the last hurricane that came to see us. We have had a few TD and TS but Floyd was the last one here.It has been nice not to have any. there for a while we were having them one right after the other. All started with bonnie then Fran I think.

[weatherwoman]

ophlia was the last one for nc coast line 2006 floyd was quite some time ago you are south of wilmington im in carteret co north of wilmington

[weatherwoman]

oops sorry was thinking south of wilmington i see you are nroth too

[storms in NC]

oops sorry was thinking south of wilmington i see you are nroth too

Yeah I am NE of Wilm and we only got a little wind from ophlia. And ernasto we had rain and flooding bad

[vacanechaser]

It's important to remember that conditions aren't always, a constant. Also looking at the the latest SAL analysis below, we see that it is certainly not as potent as it has been in the very recent past.

how true... i have seen hurricanes develop in conditions like that... that sal, is not as dry as you would think... it is on the weaker side of the scale there... i just dont think it will be as big a factor as some would like it to be...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ronjon]

12Z CMC now has four storms.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007081012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[SouthFloridawx]

I am going to post Graphics and links on the first page of this thread that will automatically update when you refresh.

[JonathanBelles]

12Z CMC now has four storms.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007081012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I dont see 4 storms happening within that time period. I think the cmc has caught a little of wishcastingitis.

[El Nino]

2 storms will be nice A busy week to come !

[WindRunner]

12Z CMC now has four storms.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007081012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I dont see 4 storms happening within that time period. I think the cmc has caught a little of wishcastingitis.

Oh come on, four tropical and two subtropical/hybrid storms are COMPLETELY possible over the next six days . . .

[Derek Ortt]

if the Canadian had been correct this season, we'd be on our third trip through the Greek Alphabet already

[SouthFloridawx]

..

[DESTRUCTION5]

if the Canadian had been correct this season, we'd be on our third trip through the Greek Alphabet already

LMAO...No question..