GFS continues to develop African wave

[Meso]

oh no :o
Though it will obviously change again

[Scorpion]

Wow... 12Z goes the length of the Major Antilles and cuts across the FL straights and into the GOM...

[x-y-no]

Well, this'll freak some people out:

[Scorpion]

Wow.... NO

[astrosbaseball22]

wow how strong is that
!

[Scorpion]

[Aric Dunn]

can we say georges!!!




lol you have love the gfs it has a funny sense of humor !! lol

[miamicanes177]

The 12Z GFS has a much better handle on this system and I believe the forecast track on this run is the most likely scenario. As we get closer and closer the model gets a better understanding of what will happen.

[KWT]

If it takes that track its very bad for those in the eastern side of the Major Antilles though I'd doubt it'd be that strong once it emerges into the gulf region. A track like this though would cause some real problem:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_312l.gif

Georges is a very close match for that run as well, probably also in terms of strength as well!

[Aric Dunn]

maybe someone accidentally but the track of Georges in the gfs run this time

[SouthFloridawx]

Don't worry the long range track will change about 16,000 times during the next few days.

[Aric Dunn]

Don't worry the long range track will change about 16,000 times during the next few days.

of course its funny though ... what are the odds of it taking almost identical track as georges

personally i can care less about the system right now its not even over water i will post when it gets over water

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It is way too early to worry where this thing will eventually go. Let us wait for a TC to form first, then we can concentrate on where it may be headed.

Another factor to take into account here; is that as concentric rings of thunderstorms ungulate around the eventual center of circulation (both vertically and horizontally), they can organize around different points over time thus relocating the most defined point of circulation. In laymen terms; it can cause a relocation of the "eye", and thus a change in heading which translates into a change in future track. This is a major reason why weak, ill defined, systems are so hard for ANY COMPUTER MODEL no matter how powerful to get a handle on. This is until/unless they become more defined.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Don't worry the long range track will change about 16,000 times during the next few days.

AMEN!!!!!! Geez. Thing may not even end up in the Gulf.

[Kennethb]

I concur with the many track changes, but a track into the GOM is not out of the question with the current pattern.

Don't worry the long range track will change about 16,000 times during the next few days.

[storms in NC]

Don't worry the long range track will change about 16,000 times during the next few days.

AMEN!!!!!! Geez. Thing may not even end up in the Gulf.

Which storm was it last year that keep changing up to 24 hours out? it had it all over.

[dwg71]

Don't worry the long range track will change about 16,000 times during the next few days.

AMEN!!!!!! Geez. Thing may not even end up in the Gulf.

"Thing" may not even exist in 300+ hours. You never know.

[Steve]

Here's the run in course:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

GFS trashes Louisiana at the end of the 12z run. I think it's slowly but surely coming to terms with the fact that there could be a Cape Verde long runner. I'd put the chances at less than 20%, but I'd prefer the solutions of the earlier runs - e.g. Florida.

j/k

Steve

[Steve]

Btw, landfall is in 13 days. That seems a little quick for a trip across the Atlantic no matter what.

Steve

[windstorm99]

No need to get worried the GFS has been all over the place with this system and this solution so far out into time needs to be taken with great caution.Iam really amazed on the persistence from the GFS with this wave its really an incredible thing to see.Run after run.