System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

To much ridiging even next Friday (17th) for anything to come to Texas.

[Wx_Warrior]

Im going with what I know best: UNTIL something does form, Im not going to guess or begin reading and looking at maps to see where this mama/daddy is going to land or if the High is going to weaken and put this area or that area into danger. Until then, it's hot in here and I do enjoy reading all the posts and listening to real mets on the downside.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_168l.gif

To much ridiging even next Friday (17th) for anything to come to Texas.

yeah seems to be a bit of a weakness

[Aric Dunn]

lol

umm gfs now takes the african system in the gulf


some people are not going to like this run!!!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Opal storm]

some people are not going to like this run!!!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

That's 370 hours out, I'm sure most people could care less. And besides, I thought this thread was on Caribbean disturbance?

[Aric Dunn]

some people are not going to like this run!!!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

That's 370 hours out, I'm sure most people could care less. And besides, I thought this thread was on Caribbean disturbance?

yeah it was to late i click on the wrong thread ... ooops

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Whatever develops in the Carribbean will head to deep S. Texas or Mexico.

[HurricaneRobert]

I don't see anything in the records for upper-Texas coast landfalls in mid-August. Allen is probably the closest, but it still only made it to the Texas-Mexico border. Plus, the rainy season is over and the high pressure ridge always seems to spare it at this time of year.

June and September are the most dangerous part of the season for Texas.

[astrosbaseball22]

from High Island and south need to watch

[Aric Dunn]

Whatever develops in the Carribbean will head to deep S. Texas or Mexico.

agreed

[dwg71]

I don't see anything in the records for upper-Texas coast landfalls in mid-August. Allen is probably the closest, but it still only made it to the Texas-Mexico border. Plus, the rainy season is over and the high pressure ridge always seems to spare it at this time of year.

June and September are the most dangerous part of the season for Texas.

Alicia 83???

[astrosbaseball22]

I don't see anything in the records for upper-Texas coast landfalls in mid-August. Allen is probably the closest, but it still only made it to the Texas-Mexico border. Plus, the rainy season is over and the high pressure ridge always seems to spare it at this time of year.

June and September are the most dangerous part of the season for Texas.

Alicia 83???

wouldnt know i wasnt born yet

[vaffie]

The WRF model appears to have joined the Canadian, Nogaps, European and NAM models predicting a tropical cyclone having formed east of the Yucatan peninsula on Monday/Tuesday. Five out of eight models predicting development. Not bad.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_12z/wrfloop.html

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/javaa ... height=700

[vaffie]

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/javaanim.pl?id=MM5&mdl=grads/afwa&file=panel2&nplts=25&width=800&height=700

Thanks Aric. Remarkable consistency we're seeing---the MM5 is on board too. 6 out of 9. We're still waiting for three of the biggies: GFS, UKMET and GFDL.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_168l.gif

To much ridiging even next Friday (17th) for anything to come to Texas.

I'm not so sure. I did think that yesterday, but now I am becoming convinced that there might be enough weakening for this to come north. One thing that is worrying is the fact that the European is showing a TX landfall of this potential system. Usually the European ends up being more accurate when it comes to upper level patterns in the long range than the GFS is. Because of this, I think I am going to side with Joe Bastardi ATM and say that we need to at least watch this closely along the TX Gulf coast. It's always better to be safe than sorry.

[vaffie]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_168l.gif

To much ridiging even next Friday (17th) for anything to come to Texas.

I'm not so sure. I did think that yesterday, but now I am becoming convinced that there might be enough weakening for this to come north. One thing that is worrying is the fact that the European is showing a TX landfall. Usually the European ends up being more accurate when it comes to upper level patterns in the long range than the GFS is. Because of this, I think I am going to side with Joe Bastardi ATM and say that we need to at least watch this closely along the TX Gulf coast.

Good point EWG. Agree. The only thing is that the European model has only done that in one run so far, and it was just as the storm was off the coast that it headed north, so if a weakness does develop, the storm still has to be over water when it happens, and we will have to see if the next run of the Euro supports that idea. The GFS is having the wave hit the Texas/Mexico border. Anyway, we'll have to see. Fingers crossed. Any signs that there will be more weakness than expected is bad news.

[Portastorm]

I don't see anything in the records for upper-Texas coast landfalls in mid-August. Allen is probably the closest, but it still only made it to the Texas-Mexico border. Plus, the rainy season is over and the high pressure ridge always seems to spare it at this time of year.

June and September are the most dangerous part of the season for Texas.

History suggests otherwise:

* July 20, 1909 -- destroyed one half of Velasco, TX
* Aug. 16, 1915 -- Large hurricane hits Galveston
* July 25-29, 1943 -- Cat-1 hurricane hits Houston
* Aug. 3, 1970 -- Celia, one of worst to ever hit Texas, hits Corpus Christi
* Aug. 9, 1980 -- Allen, one of the LARGEST hurricanes ever, hits just north of Brownsville
* Aug. 18, 1983 -- Cat-3 Alicia hits the Galveston/Houston area
* Aug. 19-22, 1999 -- Bret hits near King Ranch. Was a Cat-4 at one point

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_168l.gif

To much ridiging even next Friday (17th) for anything to come to Texas.

I'm not so sure. I did think that yesterday, but now I am becoming convinced that there might be enough weakening for this to come north. One thing that is worrying is the fact that the European is showing a TX landfall of this potential system. Usually the European ends up being more accurate when it comes to upper level patterns in the long range than the GFS is. Because of this, I think I am going to side with Joe Bastardi ATM and say that we need to at least watch this closely along the TX Gulf coast. It's always better to be safe than sorry.

We'll see. I could see S. Texas possibily. We'll see what new Euro has this afternoon.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't see anything in the records for upper-Texas coast landfalls in mid-August. Allen is probably the closest, but it still only made it to the Texas-Mexico border. Plus, the rainy season is over and the high pressure ridge always seems to spare it at this time of year.

June and September are the most dangerous part of the season for Texas.

History suggests otherwise:

* July 20, 1909 -- destroyed one half of Velasco, TX
* Aug. 16, 1915 -- Large hurricane hits Galveston
* July 25-29, 1943 -- Cat-1 hurricane hits Houston
* Aug. 3, 1970 -- Celia, one of worst to ever hit Texas, hits Corpus Christi
* Aug. 9, 1980 -- Allen, one of the LARGEST hurricanes ever, hits just north of Brownsville
* Aug. 18, 1983 -- Cat-3 Alicia hits the Galveston/Houston area
* Aug. 19-22, 1999 -- Bret hits near King Ranch. Was a Cat-4 at one point

The amazing thing about Allen is that he was so big that there were still gusts as high as 37mph in Houston at IAH (which was on the far northern reaches of the storm...over 250 miles away from the center), and at Houston-Ellington there were gusts to 40mph! That's pretty crazy for a storm hitting near Brownsville!

**This data is according to the Old Farmers Almanac "Weather History" page**