GFS continues to develop African wave

[vacanechaser]

Well, this'll freak some people out:

LOL... yep... that was too funny... but dag, georges do over??? of course it will change as we move through the coming days.. but an interesting run to say the least..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Steve]

>>LOL... yep... that was too funny... but dag, georges do over??? of course it will change as we move through the coming days.. but an interesting run to say the least..

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Georges a mid-late September system that came all the way across? I remember that we got flooded out by Frances and possibly even Hermine (that was the TS that hit LA with convection east of Mobile Bay) hit before Georges got here. Lemme go look at the 1998 season.

Edit: Yeah, Hermine hit before Georges got here. He made landfall in coastal Mississippi in late September (29th or so). Luckily for them it wasn't in August.

Steve

[SETXweatherwatcher]

I wish they would get a little more orginal - pick somewhere besides New Orleans, LA and Port Arthur, TX!!!

[Lowpressure]

Let's not jump the gun here folks. We do not even have a storm to track yet, nevermind comparing to Georges track. GFS can not intialize on nothing other than a low center over western Africa. It is interesting, but debating whether this will be a GOM storm or not is a bit far out there. Remember the overwhelming tendancy is for these CV storms to poof, too many factors against development so far this season.

[Bluefrog]

Hurricane Georges was September 28th 1998 .... I was there in the middle of it.

And as for that model above ......... *****bluefrog ...passes out****

[windstorm99]

For me personaly until theres actually something out there its really not worth getting to worked up on the GFS solutions especially at 300+hrs.Any model that far out is most likely be incorrect.

I'll will say iam amazed at the persistence from the GFS developing this wave run after run.

[DESTRUCTION5]

its been entertaining to say the least..LOL I mean wh have had like 5 dooms day disasters in the past 10 runs..

[Derek Ortt]

there is 30KT of shear due to strong upper easterlies over the E Atl at the moment. In addition, another SAL outbreak looks to move off in a couple of days along with a strong easterly jet. The models may be overdoing this quite a bit

[chadtm80]

no way Derek.. GFS NEVER overdoes things

[storms in NC]

no way Derek.. GFS NEVER overdoes things

They don't ? OH Man

[Brent]

no way Derek.. GFS NEVER overdoes things

I am strictly using the GFS for entertainment at this point. I do it in the winter for blizzards that show up which never happen also.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has pretty consistently been sending this through South Florida...now just a little South...

[x-y-no]

The GFS has pretty consistently been sending this through South Florida...now just a little South...

Not so much ...

More to Florida than anywhere els, yes, but several runs have recurved offshore, a couple to the east coast from Carolinas north, one a day before yesterday across the Yucatan ...

This is all *very* sensitive to the timing and position of the system relative to the EC trough that digs down, and we're five to seven days away from having a good grasp on that ...

[Meso]

12z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
12z CMC RUN

[Steve]

>>This is all *very* sensitive to the timing and position of the system relative to the EC trough that digs down, and we're five to seven days away from having a good grasp on that ...

It's probably not going to amount to much based on what happened in the WPAC. We were supposed to see some type of transient or weak trough out there today based on WPAC-WATL teleconnections (and the recurvature of Usagi). What happened was a broad trough poked off of New England and is already lifting out.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalwv.html

There is a trough pretty far east of Japan which is allowing some ridging underneath.

Steve

[Weatherfreak000]

I say, who cares?


None of this has a shot of happening if the system never develops...

[x-y-no]

12z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
12z CMC RUN

Heh ...

CMC loves to spin up everything ...

[Steve]

>>I say, who cares?
>>None of this has a shot of happening if the system never develops...

Right. But if you don't care, why bother participating in the discussion? Really. Everyone here knows that it's all speculation at this point.

JMO

Steve

[ronjon]

12Z UKMET - Faster than GFS with the Cape Verde system.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2007081012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[El Nino]

12Z UKMET - Faster than GFS with the Cape Verde system.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2007081012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Yup, but not very strong.