Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (CPAC): Discussions, Analysis and Ima

[Derek Ortt]

latest microwave shows an annular structure to Flossie... this was kind of hinted at yesterday at an NHC seminar, part of which discussed annular hurricanes

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good now.

[Cyclenall]

models now initialized at 75KT

The following post is NOT an official forecast/product and should not be used as such. It's just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Forth % chance of Hurricane Flossie becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Category 2 Hurricane: 60%
Category 3 Hurricane: 50%
Category 4 Hurricane: 10%
Category 5 Hurricane: 2% ~ (Mostly unknown due the fact this could cross into the Cpac and then go the "Ioke way" by small chance since it's August and that time of year)

Things are getting crazy .

latest microwave shows an annular structure to Flossie... this was kind of hinted at yesterday at an NHC seminar, part of which discussed annular hurricanes

I had a feeling that something about this TC was annular in nature when I looked at the loop this afternoon. The way it formed into a hurricane reminded me of that for some reason. It may not be annular right now, but it's possible in the near future.

[Derek Ortt]

just checked the Hawaiian TV station's websites... and they call some of us complacent... not a mention of Flossie at all

[AnnularCane]

Flossie? Annular?

[Cyclenall]

just checked the Hawaiian TV station's websites... and they call some of us complacent... not a mention of Flossie at all

That's really ironic!

Flossie? Annular?

Memories of Hurricane Daniel are coming back! That was the first tropical cyclone I have fully tracked and watched closely turn into a Annular TC. I can't believe we're talking about Flossie becoming Annular, who would have thought?

[neospaceblue]

I'm guessing Category 5 within 72 hours.

[neospaceblue]

New advisory in:

Winds are ONLY up to 85 mph
and pressure now 979 mb




They up this to 85 mph and it is obvious that this has to be a 2, 3 or 4.

[clfenwi]

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2007

THE FIRST SEVERAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY REVEAL AN INCREASINGLY
DISTINCT EYE...DECENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THAT
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEEPENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WHERE IT
HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN A BIT THIN. AN SSMIS OVERPASS FROM 1714Z ALSO
DEPICTS A SOLID AND SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WRAPPING ESSENTIALLY ALL THE
WAY AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z FROM TAFB
AND SAB WERE A CONSENSUS 77 KT...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 75 KT. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 1525Z COULD NOT
RESOLVE ANY HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...BUT IT DID CONFIRM THAT
FLOSSIE'S OVERALL WIND FIELD IS FAIRLY SMALL...WITH WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTENDING NO FARTHER FROM THE CENTER THAN
ABOUT 60 N MI.

FLOSSIE CONTINUES DUE WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 11 KT...WITH
STEERING PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS ENOUGH RIDGING TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH
OF FLOSSIE FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS TO FORCE THE SYSTEM GENERALLY
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THAT PERIOD. NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS...HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
FUTURE LATITUDE OF FLOSSIE. THE HWRF IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER BUT
SEEMS TO TAKE THE CYCLONE TOO FAR NORTH EVEN EARLY ON IN THE
FORECAST. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH...ON THE OTHER EXTREME OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NAVY
MODELS...GFS...AND THE CONSENSUS ARE ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE. GIVEN
THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD...AND THAT THE CONSENSUS IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE IN THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK.

OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A LITTLE
MORE INTENSIFICATION. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 27C FOR ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS...WITHIN A
CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT
85 KT IN 24 HOURS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THE WATERS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL BENEATH FLOSSIE BEYOND
24 HOURS...AND SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS
TO START INCREASING IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. AS A RESULT...FLOSSIE IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ON DAYS TWO AND THREE...FOLLOWED BY MORE
WEAKENING AS A TROPICAL STORM LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. NONE OF
THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS FLOSSIE TO BE A
HURRICANE BEYOND 72 HOURS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 12.6N 137.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 12.7N 139.0W 80 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 13.1N 141.3W 85 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 13.6N 143.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 14.1N 146.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 15.0N 150.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 16.5N 155.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 18.0N 159.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

FLOSSIE SHOWING OFF!!!

[AnnularCane]

She looks like she is waving at us.

[Brent]

Hi Flossie! Going on vacation to Hawaii?

[CrazyC83]

I'd estimate she is really 100 mph and pressure of 972.

[HURAKAN]

BETTER BY THE HOUR!!!

[HurricaneRobert]

I was just going to ask if she was going annular when I saw her this afternoon. She looks pretty, but she has an old name. So far GFDL's gotten the intensity the closest. I hope the track stays far south of Hawaii though.

[Nimbus]

Sometimes these storms turn more poleward as they wind up. The forecast is for Flossie to be only a tropical storm by the time it passes south of Hawaii (last time I checked) but I have to say she looks a little more potent than I expected currently. The cooler waters near Hawaii have diminished so many storms passing south that people apparantly are quite complacent. Hurricane prep just means waxing up the surf board.

[neospaceblue]

My guess:

125 mph
945 mb

I would say higher but it was just upgraded this morning, but it still looks to strong for Category 2, so I'm guessing it's a Cat 3 right now

[Derek Ortt]

not a cat 3 now... somewhere between 75-85KT

[CrazyC83]

Only T4.0 though according to AODT, not sure the other values. I'd put it at 80 or 85 knots thinking it looks better than that suggests.

[Chacor]

New advisory in:

Winds are ONLY up to 85 mph
and pressure now 979 mb




They up this to 85 mph and it is obvious that this has to be a 2, 3 or 4.

I don't believe you are an expert, what do you have to back up your claim that at that time it was "obvious that this has to be a 2, 3 or 4"? Please, let the experts at TPC do their job. As hurricane watchers we can only marvel at the storms, but we aren't here on the board to say what is "obvious" and what isn't.