Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

[El Nino]

anyone from High Island and south NEEDS to watch this!

Not more than a tropical storm ... No need to worry ...

[Wx_Warrior]

Astrosbaseball....What makes you think High Island and south need to worry when there's nothing at all to worry about?

I know the Astros are struggling and they aren't much to get excited about but as EVERYONE has stated....WAIT

[Aric Dunn]

Astrosbaseball....What makes you think High Island and south need to worry when there's nothing at all to worry about?

I know the Astros are struggling and they aren't much to get excited about but as EVERYONE has stated....WAIT

he just said they need to watch it.. never said worry!

yeah wait and watch.. because you cant avoid waiting!!

[DrewFL]

Here's what Corpus is saying this afternoon:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
254 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2007

THE REGION OF MSTR CURRENTLY OVR THE
CARIBBEAN AND ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER DISTURBANCE PROGD TO MOVE WWD
YET JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA...EXPECTED TO REACH THE CWFA LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE TIMING/PSN OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/TROUGH IS UNCLEAR.
THE GFS PROGS LOWER SFC PRESSURE BY OVR/NEAR THE CWFA WED...THE
CANADIAN THU...AND THE NOGAPS SUGGESTS A LOW BY FRI.

[Aric Dunn]

the 12z showing development in NW carrib...... euro

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

heading for northern mexico southern tx area

[storms in NC]

astrosbaseball22 Is only 14 and Aric Dunn Has got them worried that a Hurricane is going to TX. I am very sorry to say any thing Aric Dunn but there is young kids on this board. Some times We have to watch what we say. even with the grown ones too. This is why you should put up the disclaimer in your posts. They will take you word that it is really going to happen.. And that is something we don't even know at this time. Only going on models.
You write good posts but Please understand what I am trying to say. I am not putting you down in any way. Just to give you a heads up.

Happy posting to you
Deb

[Aric Dunn]

astrosbaseball22 Is only 14 and Aric Dunn Has got them worried that a Hurricane is going to TX. I am very sorry to say any thing Aric Dunn but there is young kids on this board. Some times We have to watch what we say. even with the grown ones too. This is why you should put up the disclaimer in your posts. They will take you word that it is really going to happen.. And that is something we don't even know at this time. Only going on models.
You write good posts but Please understand what I am trying to say. I am not putting you down in any way. Just to give you a heads up.

Happy posting to you
Deb

thats ok I understand.. I guess i could

thought i was careful as always saying possible or maybe but i guess i will do that

thankyou

oh i never said hurrincane or even used the TD or TS

[cheezyWXguy]

Astro, Im also only 14, but Ive been here for over a year, and Ive learned to take everything fairly lightly on this board, as it is unofficial, and so are many of its users. The idea is take everything as a grain of salt and stay cool unless something serious is really about to happen

[Steve]

>>I am very sorry to say any thing Aric Dunn but there is young kids on this board.

That doesn't mean anything. There is a disclaimer at the top of the page, and they're just going to have to deal with that. You can't ban speech because someone might take it the wrong way. That's like nanny-state ideas, or better yet, you can't ban ice cream because some people might get fat eating it. Aric Dunn, while he probably posts too much ( ), never claimed to be God, a meteorologist or anything else. Kids need to chill just like adults do. When you enter the Talking Tropics Ring, you have to be prepared to understand that the posts are in people's opinion.

Steve

[lrak]

Kids rule, and they all go back to skool next month

[cheezyWXguy]

Kids rule, and they all go back to skool next month

shhh... I dont wanna think about that

[astrosbaseball22]

Kids rule, and they all go back to skool next month

unless a hurricane

we missed 7 days of school in 2005 and hurricane rita barley hit!

[Aric Dunn]

Anyway Im going to be away from my computer for a while ( till tomorrow sometime) but i will post when ever something changes (which should be later tonight).
as a leaving note, it appears the broad turning offshore honduras is becoming a little more defined.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html full zoom 25 images loop just between honduras and jamaica.

it is very evident this afternoon and convection is still increasing(but disorganized). land reports from honduras the cayman islands and the buoy in the NW carrib are still (all day) show broad turning with the winds (if you dont believe me check)

This is the area that has the most potential so just keep and eye on it. and stop writing everything off.. until its cloud free

ps. would not be surprised to see a low form tonight



pps .. figure i will give you the observation

rotan
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html

farther east
Guanaja
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHNO.html

buoy nw carrib
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

cayman islands
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCB.html

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCR.html


have fun

[Aric Dunn]

oh and the 18z nam (yes i know dont bother with the nam but its still interesting )

[mgpetre]

Aric,

I enjoy your posts immensely and I think anyone on this board should understand the nature of the conversation and speculation here. If you want to know about imminent threats, go to the nhc or weather channel sites. If you want to discuss possibilities and weather details come here. I've never seen anything on this entire thread that was overly alarming even to a casual observer. I don't believe Aric posts too much at all, he has valid opinions and is not a total alarmest, just tends to err on the side of caution.

[Cryomaniac]

Astro, Im also only 14, but Ive been here for over a year, and Ive learned to take everything fairly lightly on this board, as it is unofficial, and so are many of its users. The idea is take everything as a grain of salt and stay cool unless something serious is really about to happen

Thats pretty much my exact opinion (excpt I'm 21, not 14) =).

As for this system, I'm going to wait and see.

[Rieyeuxs]

We're going to put some of those online pharmacies out of business with Xanax prescriptions if we're already on a second thread for an area that isn't even an invest. Chad, I hope you've got a back-up server or two ready when the next storm actually gets named!!!



Do you have that paypal link we can send some more money to to help out?

[srainhoutx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 102121
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[vaffie]

Anyway Im going to be away from my computer for a while ( till tomorrow sometime) but i will post when ever something changes (which should be later tonight).
as a leaving note, it appears the broad turning offshore honduras is becoming a little more defined.

I didn't notice it at first, but you're absolutely right--clear circulation on satellite, increasing convection recently, surface reports truly do indicate a low-level circulation with west winds, north winds, the works. Probably about a 1009 mb low at 16N, 82W. Will be worth watching this area overnight. If this turns out ultimately to be the responsible low, will be very interesting to see what all the models do with it now--since they can lock on to a specific position now.

[jrod]

My theme of the day is the models have been blind squirrels all season, developing phantom seasons. I do not think this area is the going to go nuts, it looks like nothing of interest right now with just a broad area of low pressure. Of note the waters near Jamaica area sizzling and the THPs are at the top of the scale. I'd be suprised if we get Dean from this mess.