GFS continues to develop African wave

[ekal]

About dry air and its influence, that's exactly what the models are showing I think. This storm will have to wait to approach the Lesser Islands to become a hurricane or something like that.

Well, GFS wants to blow it up fast.

By 36 hours, it shows what is probably already a tropical storm.



I agree with you that development will be more gradual.

[cycloneye]

The 18z run of GFS is starting to roll.Stay tuned for the different hours data.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfs is starting to see that it is making a mistake. That is why there is only a few (1-2) isobars around the low pressure instead of 3-4 maybe 5 at the same time as of last night. This means weaker systems. It would not at all suprize me if this turns out to be a lot like Iris of 2005 or 96L,99L.

[x-y-no]

The 18z run of GFS is starting to roll.Stay tuned for the different hours data.

It initialized a 1008mb low right on the coast.

At 18 hours, low is offshore . Still 1008mb.

[Aquawind]

The Gfs is starting to see that it is making a mistake. That is why there is only a few (1-2) isobars around the low pressure instead of 3-4 maybe 5 at the same time as of last night. This means weaker systems. It would not at all suprize me if this turns out to be a lot like Iris of 2005 or 96L,99L.

The GFS is not alone anymore though.. I would be a little surprised at this point.

[cycloneye]

30 hours

[jrod]

Have these models been right this year at all? I'll get hyped when I see something spinning with convection. With the season about to kick off in climo terms, one of thoese blind sqirrells will find the nut.

[cycloneye]

42 hours

1007 mbs in 42 hours.

[Opal storm]

That's a compact system it's showing.

[El Nino]

Yup, at 36h, a TS, which is quite exagerating I think. And I still think it will only become a hurricane as it approaches the Lesser Islands.

[cycloneye]

48 hours

1004 mbs.

[x-y-no]

18z GFS at 54 hours:

Still a moderate closed low.

Ridging looks very similar to previous runs.

[sevenleft]

Looking like the same solution as the previous runs.

[cycloneye]

66 hours

Still no change from previous runs.

[jrod]

I like to wait until the things hits the water before putting faith in the models. IFRC this is the most aggressive one I've seen all season so there might be good reason why. This board is going to be out of control when we finally have a legit storm.

[cycloneye]

90 hours

1003 mbs

[cheezyWXguy]

1000mb at 84hr:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_084l.gif

[miamicanes177]

The Gfs is starting to see that it is making a mistake. That is why there is only a few (1-2) isobars around the low pressure instead of 3-4 maybe 5 at the same time as of last night. This means weaker systems. It would not at all suprize me if this turns out to be a lot like Iris of 2005 or 96L,99L.

Nope GFS is just as robust on the 18Z out to 90 hours. I hope you're right and this is nothing but I'm afraid it might become a serious hurricane like the GFS has been saying.

[skysummit]

I like to wait until the things hits the water before putting faith in the models. IFRC this is the most aggressive one I've seen all season so there might be good reason why. This board is going to be out of control when we finally have a legit storm.

Evidentally you're still interested though since you're one that continues to post in this thread.

[x-y-no]

90 hours

1003 mbs

The progress is a tiny bit faster than the 12z run, but very similar.