GFS continues to develop African wave

[ekal]

It needs to either go slightly further south or north because it looks like it will cut straight WNW over land the entire time.

Agreed there. The mudslides on the island of Hispaniola would be terrible if it cuts across the Greater Antilles, and no one wants another Georges.

The consolation is, it's hour 174.

[Brent]

174 hours

As Jan said.

I'm not even worried about a possible U.S. threat right now, this is a much bigger concern to me.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

180 hours=It makes landfall in Puerto Rico

[storms in NC]

I Think it smells the cape fear LOL. Just joking. I hope it is not a Fl storm. Fl people will never be able to pay their ins or taxs any more. My Daughter live in Ft Myers and she said that her ins went 5x what it was and taxs out the roof.

[Meso]

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Wow..check out this run..It moves the powerful hurricane to the Gulf of Mexico!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[JonathanBelles]

300 takes it into LA/TX!!

[ekal]

Man, Meso's cheating. He cut right to the chase there!



On a more serious note, that's a messy run for all involved.

[jrod]

I Think it smells the cape fear LOL. Just joking. I hope it is not a Fl storm. Fl people will never be able to pay their ins or taxs any more. My Daughter live in Ft Myers and she said that her ins went 5x what it was and taxs out the roof.

My parents had the same problem, even without making a claim durring the '04 season. They do live on the barrier island known as the Space Coast.

[Brent]

Looks like it goes over Hispanola, across Eastern Cuba, Cayman Islands, Western tip of Cuba and then Gulf.

[sevenleft]

Ok, wasn't expecting the riding to be quite that strong. Houston at 312 hours, heh.

[cycloneye]

180 hours

A Georges type track thru Puerto Rico.I really hope this will not verifie.Plenty of time and runs ahead to see many changes.

[windstorm99]

[fci]

Well lets be glad that all we are seeing so far are cartoons and fantasy.

Hundreds of hours and days away from seeing whether any of this goes beyond cartoons and fantasy.

Lets just hold off on the "holy craps" and " 's" until there is an actual system.

[storms in NC]

Let's hope it don't pan out. Cause Fl and La and Miss, Al Don't need it.

[jrod]

Well lets be glad that all we are seeing so far are cartoons and fantasy.

Hundreds of hours and days away from seeing whether any of this goes beyond cartoons and fantasy.

Lets just hold off on the "holy craps" and " 's" until there is an actual system.

Amen to that



Go Gators!!

[JonathanBelles]

That is the worst run so far.

[Derek Ortt]

we know what may very well not happen


none of these long range runs are worth the paper they are written on when it comes to a precise track

[ekal]

The San Juan AFD was a good one this afternoon as to why there is nothing to be too concerned about, yet.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON A LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AFRICA. THE GFS HAS BECOME VERY AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS LOW AND DEVELOPS IT INTO A HURRICANE AND PLACES IT OVER
PUERTO RICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT ON 18 AUGUST. BUT A NUMBER OF THINGS
SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY NOT BE THE SCENARIO WE EXPERIENCE. FIRST
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY SURFACE AND SAHARAN AIR
LAYER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM
JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW ON THE COAST OF AFRICA AROUND 12 DEGREES
NORTH. SECOND...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS FORMED A LINE WHICH
IS SOUTH OF 10 NORTH OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. THIRD...PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR FORCING THE MOISTURE SOUTH.
FOURTH...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG NOW AS IT WAS 24
HOURS AGO. AND FINALLY THE PATH WHICH THE GFS PROJECTS THIS SYSTEM
TO MOVE OVER HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE TO CONVECTION.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION BETWEEN 24 AND 48 DEGREES WEST IN
THE TROPICS AND A SUBSTANTIAL SAHARAN AIR LAYER NORTH OF IT.
THEREFORE AM VERY WARY OF PLACING ANY CREDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION
OF NEARLY 110 KNOT WINDS AT 850 MB ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE TO BE LOCATED NEAR 17 NORTH 60 WEST AT 00Z ON SATURDAY 18
AUGUST...AND HAVE REMOVED ANY UNUSUAL WINDS FROM THE LOCAL
FORECAST AND KEPT POPS TO A SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY LEVEL.
IF THE FORECAST IS TO VERIFY IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE EVIDENT ON
SUNDAY WHEN THE LOW HAS MOVED ENTIRELY OFFSHORE AND WE WILL BE
ABLE TO BETTER EVALUATE WHETHER IT CAN DEVELOP VERY MUCH. UNTIL
THEN WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CAREFULLY.

Ponce, PR, by the way, is currently reporting a dust storm. Is it hazy where you are, Luis?

[HollynLA]

Hopefully since they are showing these hits this far out, that's a good sign, since the models will probably change 15 times from here on.