GFS continues to develop African wave

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Extremeweatherguy
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Re: GFS continues to show development for wave about to emerge

#401 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 10, 2007 5:54 pm

Holy ****! :eek: Well, let's just say that would be the worst case scenario. The only good news is that this is 312 hours out..so based on past GFS performance, I am not too worried. If it is still showing this in say the 144 or 168 hour range and there actually is a trackable system, then that would be another story.
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Re: GFS continues to show development=18z GFS run rolling in

#402 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 10, 2007 5:56 pm

I have something to say on speculation of a potential track 2 weeks out. I'm semi-sure of one thing, if it develops it may track somewhere between Mexico and east of Bermuda. The GFS has little ability to forecast ridge/trof positions beyond 72 hours in many cases. Yes, this system could threaten the Caribbean and/or the U.S. if it develops, but no one knows what steering currents will exist 7-10 days from now, certainly not the GFS.
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Re: GFS continues to show development for wave about to emerge

#403 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 10, 2007 5:57 pm

ekal wrote:The San Juan AFD was a good one this afternoon as to why there is nothing to be too concerned about, yet.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON A LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AFRICA. THE GFS HAS BECOME VERY AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS LOW AND DEVELOPS IT INTO A HURRICANE AND PLACES IT OVER
PUERTO RICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT ON 18 AUGUST. BUT A NUMBER OF THINGS
SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY NOT BE THE SCENARIO WE EXPERIENCE. FIRST
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY SURFACE AND SAHARAN AIR
LAYER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM
JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW ON THE COAST OF AFRICA AROUND 12 DEGREES
NORTH. SECOND...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS FORMED A LINE WHICH
IS SOUTH OF 10 NORTH OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. THIRD...PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR FORCING THE MOISTURE SOUTH.
FOURTH...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG NOW AS IT WAS 24
HOURS AGO. AND FINALLY THE PATH WHICH THE GFS PROJECTS THIS SYSTEM
TO MOVE OVER HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE TO CONVECTION.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION BETWEEN 24 AND 48 DEGREES WEST IN
THE TROPICS AND A SUBSTANTIAL SAHARAN AIR LAYER NORTH OF IT.
THEREFORE AM VERY WARY OF PLACING ANY CREDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION
OF NEARLY 110 KNOT WINDS AT 850 MB ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE TO BE LOCATED NEAR 17 NORTH 60 WEST AT 00Z ON SATURDAY 18
AUGUST...AND HAVE REMOVED ANY UNUSUAL WINDS FROM THE LOCAL
FORECAST AND KEPT POPS TO A SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY LEVEL.
IF THE FORECAST IS TO VERIFY IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE EVIDENT ON
SUNDAY WHEN THE LOW HAS MOVED ENTIRELY OFFSHORE AND WE WILL BE
ABLE TO BETTER EVALUATE WHETHER IT CAN DEVELOP VERY MUCH. UNTIL
THEN WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CAREFULLY.

Ponce, PR, by the way, is currently reporting a dust storm. Is it hazy where you are, Luis?


Yes hazy in San Juan.As Always the San Juan NWs does excellent discussions and in this one,they dont want to sound the alarms early to the population,instaed watch it how evolves and then go from there.
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#404 Postby fci » Fri Aug 10, 2007 5:59 pm

That is a GREAT AFD from San Juan!
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Re: GFS continues to show development=18z GFS run rolling in

#405 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 10, 2007 6:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:I have something to say on speculation of a potential track 2 weeks out. I'm semi-sure of one thing, if it develops it may track somewhere between Mexico and east of Bermuda. The GFS has little ability to forecast ridge/trof positions beyond 72 hours in many cases. Yes, this system could threaten the Caribbean and/or the U.S. if it develops, but no one knows what steering currents will exist 7-10 days from now, certainly not the GFS.


Well that was absolutely no help.

:lol:

J/K :P
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#406 Postby Fego » Fri Aug 10, 2007 6:24 pm

Better is between New Foundland and Brasil :lol: !kidding!.. Now seriously, looks like recurving to the north Atlantic is less possible.
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Re: GFS continues to develop wave about to emerge West Africa

#407 Postby jimvb » Fri Aug 10, 2007 6:40 pm

The 2007 Aug 10 18Z run now makes this storm into a Rita. But there are other signs, such as the SAL, that suggests this system may go nowhere.

The moment of truth is coming for this storm. Will it develop into a big cane and threaten somewhere in the US, Mexico, or Caribbean? Or will it just peter out? We will find out probably this weekend.
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#408 Postby fci » Fri Aug 10, 2007 6:46 pm

IMO, probably will not find out this weekend

If it does intensify to a named system way out by the Cape Verde Islands, wouldn't it be pulled poleward and be a fish?

Rarely see one develop way out there and not turn North. That's why I don't think that, IF it develops; that it will be so quickly.
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Re: GFS continues to develop wave about to emerge West Africa

#409 Postby Bluefrog » Fri Aug 10, 2007 6:46 pm

****passes out**** on just the thought !!!! :eek:
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Re: GFS continues to develop wave about to emerge West Africa

#410 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Fri Aug 10, 2007 7:07 pm

Wow, a gulf system would be even worse, I get woozie just the thought of the gas prices.
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#411 Postby astrosbaseball22 » Fri Aug 10, 2007 7:38 pm

question-how strong is the run that was this system going into texas?
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#412 Postby Jinkers » Fri Aug 10, 2007 7:43 pm

To far out to worry about now, but will definitly keep an eye on it.
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#413 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:02 pm

Just posted my first forecast. You may want to read the post before my forecast as well.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=96278&start=20
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Re: GFS develops wave about to emerge Coast of Africa

#414 Postby ekal » Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:09 pm

Image

Convection is slightly more impressive. Still feeding off the unstable airmass over the African continent, though.

8:05 PM TPC discussion pertaining to the tropical Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT THE SFC...THE MAIN FEATURE IS A STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 37N34W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. A QSCAT PASS
NEAR 1930Z SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS NEAR
THE COAST OF NW AFRICA...BUT THESE WINDS ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN
THE PAST FEW DAYS. EARLIER VIS IMAGERY AND THE CIMSS SAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE MODEST AREA OF SAHARAN DUST BEHIND THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIB. THIS STABLE LOW-MID LEVEL AIR IS
PROMOTING THE WIDESPREAD FAIR CONDITIONS.
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Re: GFS develops wave about to emerge Coast of Africa

#415 Postby pup55 » Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:19 pm

Good work, Windstorm. I noticed that too.

This model brings a 991 mb tropical storm or minimal hurricane into Chicago on the 24th.

That is sure to make the evening news.
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#416 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:26 pm

What is the link to the model that explodes this blob into a Category 5?
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Re:

#417 Postby ekal » Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:30 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:What is the link to the model that explodes this blob into a Category 5?


The European makes this a formidable cyclone, but strength is never too discernable from global models.

The good ole GFS also makes it a monster.
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Re: GFS develops wave about to emerge Coast of Africa

#418 Postby windstorm99 » Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:34 pm

Image
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Re: GFS develops wave about to emerge Coast of Africa

#419 Postby Praxus » Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:36 pm

pup55 wrote:Good work, Windstorm. I noticed that too.

This model brings a 991 mb tropical storm or minimal hurricane into Chicago on the 24th.

That is sure to make the evening news.


LOL I can't believe I'm looking at a model run that brings a tropical storm toward Toronto.

What a run! A devastating swath through the south and then to cap it off some chaos in the northeast. Good thing such early runs are good for entertainment more than accuracy.
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#420 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:41 pm

I think this wave will be a player, it may take longer than the GFS shows, but it is getting to mid Aug. and this wave is refiring convection regardless of the SAL, throw in multiple model support some for days now it only is a matter of time with this one IMO.
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