Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

[pontalba]

Kids rule, and they all go back to skool next month

unless a hurricane

we missed 7 days of school in 2005 and hurricane rita barley hit!

Sweetpea, I'm a high school science teacher and we missed about a month of school because Rita DID hit us.... I don't want to go back to school anymore than you guys do, but I do not advocate wishing for another repeat performance of Rita. It was not fun for those of us in extreme SE TX and SW LA. We still have blue tarps on probably 5-10% of the roofs in my town.

[southerngale]

We're going to put some of those online pharmacies out of business with Xanax prescriptions if we're already on a second thread for an area that isn't even an invest. Chad, I hope you've got a back-up server or two ready when the next storm actually gets named!!!



Do you have that paypal link we can send some more money to to help out?

There's a donation button on the right side of the homepage. All donations to keep Storm2k running are greatly appreciated. Every little bit helps.


http://www.storm2k.org/wx/

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest from JB at 5pm...

-He still thinks something will develop, that the ridge will begin to back down, and that there could be a tropical threat as far north as the TX Gulf Coast sometime next week beyond day 6.

-He also thinks that the system currently coming off Africa could also develop and be an issue in the SE Atlantic and GOM during the week of the 19th (He does not think it will recurve). However, that is a story for another time and we probably should not worry too much about that threat right now (being that it is still at least 10-15 days in the future).

Bottom line here is that basically nothing has changed. His ideas have remained quite consistant over the last few days, and he is still calling for tropical development next week.

[wxman57]

Nothing is going to happen quickly with this system, and I'd look farther south around 13N-14N (as Derek stated earlier today) for the beginnings of any are of low pressure. That's where all the models initialize development, not up in the northern Caribbean. There's definitely no low there now, and certainly not up north of 15N, all the turning you see up there is just flow around the wave axis (southeast winds east of the axis, northeast winds west of the axis). Lowest pressure is just north of Panama.

Even though there appears to be a lot of model agreement, that doesn't mean they're right. Development chances aren't high yet. I'd say maybe 20-30% at most. That's still a 70-80% probability of no development. 12Z Euro is slower and farther south with any possible track, indicating a threat to northern MX or south TX late next week. Canadian is not even worth mentioning for tropical systems, neither is the NAM. NOGAPS has been a poor performer for years as well. Right now, I'm paying closest attention to the ECMWF, though the GFS isn't too much different from the ECMWF.

As for potential intensity - IF this system becomes a TS, then the slow movement blocked by the ridge is the perfect setup for rapid intensification to hurricane strength and beyond. I don't see any inhibiting factors if and when it gets spinning.

[srainhoutx]

Nothing is going to happen quickly with this system, and I'd look farther south around 13N-14N (as Derek stated earlier today) for the beginnings of any are of low pressure. That's where all the models initialize development, not up in the northern Caribbean. There's definitely no low there now, and certainly not up north of 15N, all the turning you see up there is just flow around the wave axis (southeast winds east of the axis, northeast winds west of the axis). Lowest pressure is just north of Panama.

Even though there appears to be a lot of model agreement, that doesn't mean they're right. Development chances aren't high yet. I'd say maybe 20-30% at most. That's still a 70-80% probability of no development. 12Z Euro is slower and farther south with any possible track, indicating a threat to northern MX or south TX late next week. Canadian is not even worth mentioning for tropical systems, neither is the NAM. NOGAPS has been a poor performer for years as well. Right now, I'm paying closest attention to the ECMWF, though the GFS isn't too much different from the ECMWF.

As for potential intensity - IF this system becomes a TS, then the slow movement blocked by the ridge is the perfect setup for rapid intensification to hurricane strength and beyond. I don't see any inhibiting factors if and when it gets spinning.

Thanks wxman57. Should be an interesting weekend. Don't work too hard.

[Cryomaniac]

We're going to put some of those online pharmacies out of business with Xanax prescriptions if we're already on a second thread for an area that isn't even an invest. Chad, I hope you've got a back-up server or two ready when the next storm actually gets named!!!



Do you have that paypal link we can send some more money to to help out?

Funniest post I've read all day!

[jrod]

wxman,

so is there even a broad area of low pressure there?

[wxman57]

wxman,

so is there even a broad area of low pressure there?

You could call it that, just as with many higher-amplitude tropical waves.

[mgpetre]

I want to apologize for my post yesterday calling for TD development by today because I do not want to be the boy that cried wolf. Yes this wave could still develop, but it looks unlikely. I am learning here and promise that when the time comes I will watch more than I will post.

[Brent]

I'm sorry but this image is about the funniest thing I have ever seen:

[astrosbaseball22]

I want to apologize for my post yesterday calling for TD development by today because I do not want to be the boy that cried wolf. Yes this wave could still develop, but it looks unlikely. I am learning here and promise that when the time comes I will watch more than I will post.

wait untill it gets into the G.O.M

[wiggles]

I don't even want to think about it getting in the GOM

[HurricaneRobert]

I'm sorry but this image is about the funniest thing I have ever seen:

We're going to have sticks of dynamite rising out of the ocean?

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm sorry but this image is about the funniest thing I have ever seen:

We're going to have sticks of dynamite rising out of the ocean?

That oughta kill some fish...the EPA isnt going to like that...lol

[astrosbaseball22]

mabye thats why the GFS has a monster! the gulf will blow up!

[Sanibel]

SST off Sanibel - 92* !

[Kludge]

Kids rule, and they all go back to skool next month

Thank you, Lord.


It's starting to feel like Romper Room in here.

[jaxfladude]

Non-event

[vaffie]

The 00Z WRF model is out, with a closed low pressure north of the Yucatan Peninsula at 84 hours. The 00Z GFS model is coming out now, and has a 1010 mb low east of Belize at 36 hours and a 1009 mb low next to Panama. We await the rest of the model with interest for signs of change in this crucial model.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_0z/wrf84.html

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[vaffie]

The GFS is appearing to treat the wave differently now--showing a lot of convection at 48 hours in the western Caribbean whereas it was showing much less in the last few runs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

At 60 hours, the GFS closes off the low east of Belize, based on the wind directions. There is also another closed low east of Nicaragua drifting northwest.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif