GFS continues to develop African wave

[MiamiensisWx]

It shows a different upper-air regime. There's a deeper broad 500 mbar trough off the East Coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_090l.gif

It appears to bear some features of a persistent trough (unlike the previous 18Z run).

[Extremeweatherguy]

It shows a different upper-air regime. There's a deeper broad 500 mbar trough off the East Coast...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_090l.gif

It actually doesn't look that different. Here is that same time period on the 18z run...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_096l.gif

Very similar.

[cycloneye]

108 hours

[sevenleft]

It shows a different upper-air regime. There's a deeper broad 500 mbar trough off the East Coast...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_090l.gif

It is slightly slightly wider. At 108 hours, the setup is about the same. Both lift the trough out and leave an ULL over Florida at that time.

[Sanibel]

It's recurving it again. It's already doing the jump towards the shortwave off the coast.

[miamicanes177]

It's recurving it again. It's already doing the jump towards the shortwave off the coast.

what do you mean recurving it again? It's been showing it hitting the US the past several runs.

[ekal]

It's recurving it again. It's already doing the jump towards the shortwave off the coast.

Not yet, at least not with that ridge. It is actually tracking further south on this run.

[wxman57]

I'm getting the new GFS in GARP as it's issued. 1003mb at 75 hrs.

I thought the GFS went from 72 hours to 78 hours?

The high-resolution version I get is every 3 hours out to 180 hours, then every 6 hours after that. Get your own satellite receiving station and software to decode the signal and you can get the high-res GFS too!

15.2N/51.0W and 1000mb at 129 hrs. Heading for NE Caribbean. The GFS is like a big slot machine. You never know what city is going to be hit with each run.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It's recurving it again. It's already doing the jump towards the shortwave off the coast.

Where do you see this? The model is only out to hour 108...with no hint of a recurve.

[miamicanes177]

The high-resolution version I get is every 3 hours out to 180 hours, then every 6 hours after that. Get your own satellite receiving station and software to decode the signal and you can get the high-res GFS too!

I'm overworked and underpaid so I couldn't afford one

[wxman57]

15.8N/53.2W 998 mb at 138 hrs. That's 525 miles due east of the islands of the NE Caribbean at 1pm CDT next Thursday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

132 hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_132l.gif

[cycloneye]

132 hours

Getting very close to Leeward Islands.

[skysummit]

LOL....there's like 4 different people posting the same run. Why don't we let Luis do it?

[MiamiensisWx]

It lifts the trough northward - the 500 mbar pattern looks like a similar synoptic setup (relative to the 18Z run).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_132l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_144l.gif

It's a carbon copy of the previous run. Note the west-moving trough over FL. I would bet on another landfall in this run.

[punkyg]

Who is luis?

[sevenleft]

Ridge looks a tad stronger at 500mb than it did at 18z. There will be a landfall. But it's a matter of how many islands the GFS is going to blast it through..and then does it hit Mexico, the Gulf Coast, or Florida?

[cycloneye]

LOL....there's like 4 different people posting the same run. Why don't we let Luis do it?

I will let wxman57 do it as he has better info than me.

[wxman57]

16.1N/55.3W at 147 hrs (10pm next Thursday), 395 miles due east of Guadeloupe island. 998mb.