Global Models Thread for 90L

[SouthFloridawx]

That is a fairly large system.

[windstorm99]

That is a fairly large system.

On that run by the ECMWF its looks right on track for a south florida hit but again its long range and has to be taken with great caution as with all models this far out.

The model agreement now is really something to see!

[Blown Away]

Has the low moved off the African coast yet? I can't tell looking at the satellite.

[canetracker]

Has the low moved off the African coast yet? I can't tell looking at the satellite.

Recent image of our low.
animated image: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/europe/movies/m7irn/m7irnjava.html

[fci]

Sorry for being repetitve from another thread but lets remember we are looking at cartoons and fantasy here.

No Name, No TD, Not even an Invest and people are posting about being "due" and "major bearing down on SE Fla"

P L E A S E!!!!!
Take a deep breath folks.
All we have are animated cartoons called models forecasting 2 weeks out.

Sorry to present the "reality check"!

[cycloneye]

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96802&start=0

Thread 1

Continue the discussion of the GFS model scenarios here.

[Extremeweatherguy]

144 hr. graphic (next Thursday evening) = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_144l.gif

156 hr. graphic (next Friday morning) = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_156l.gif

[wxman57]

LOL....there's like 4 different people posting the same run. Why don't we let Luis do it?

I will let wxman57 do it as he has better info than me.

I'm going to bed soon. Just got back from a 2-hr bike ride at 10pm. Going biking in the morning around 9am for a long ride. Have to keep in good shape for hurricane forecasting.

16.6N/56.7W at 153 hrs (3am CDT next Friday). Down to 995mb. about 280 miles east of Guadeloupe.

That's all for tonight. I can wait until morning to find out if it's Houston or New York that gets hit this run.

[MiamiensisWx]

It deepens the system to 994 mbar (approximate estimate). It looks like a deeper system - the model's coarseness should be noted as an instigator for imprecise measurements.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_156l.gif

The Leeward Islands are targeted...

[punkyg]

LOL....there's like 4 different people posting the same run. Why don't we let Luis do it?

I will let wxman57 do it as he has better info than me.

I'm going to bed soon. Just got back from a 2-hr bike ride at 10pm. Going biking in the morning around 9am for a long ride. Have to keep in good shape for hurricane forecasting.

16.6N/56.7W at 153 hrs (3am CDT next Friday). Down to 995mb. about 280 miles east of Guadeloupe.

That's all for tonight. I can wait until morning to find out if it's Houston or New York that gets hit this run.

Aw man why didn't you say. have to keep in good shape for the ladies.
man that would have been funny.

[Brent]

LOL!!!

Thanks wxman57 for the info! Very much appreciated.

[srainhoutx]

LOL....there's like 4 different people posting the same run. Why don't we let Luis do it?

I will let wxman57 do it as he has better info than me.

I'm going to bed soon. Just got back from a 2-hr bike ride at 10pm. Going biking in the morning around 9am for a long ride. Have to keep in good shape for hurricane forecasting.

16.6N/56.7W at 153 hrs (3am CDT next Friday). Down to 995mb. about 280 miles east of Guadeloupe.

That's all for tonight. I can wait until morning to find out if it's Houston or New York that gets hit this run.

Thanks wxman57.

[ROCK]

Wxmn57.......heres hoping neither......I just can't believe such a long tracker the ridge doesnt break down at some point and track it poleward. I mean we are talking 10-12 days from now......I don't think there any way this is GOM bound....IMO, its PR, FL and up the EC........

[ekal]

I have a feeling Florida gets eaten in this movie, er, I mean run.

Seriously, though, I don't blame Wxman57 for going to bed. By the time he gets back from his bike ride, two more runs, with two more Doomsday scenarios, will have passed, with still scores of other runs to come before anything definitive happens.

Ah, don't you love the tropics?

[cycloneye]

Ok 57,thanks for all that you do for this weather community.Go to rest because I think you will have plenty of work ahead and long nights.

[sevenleft]

I have a feeling Florida gets eaten in this movie, er, I mean run.

Seriously, though, I don't blame Wxman57 for going to bed. By the time he gets back from his bike ride, two more runs, with two more Doomsday scenarios, will have passed, with still scores of other runs to come before anything definitive happens.

Ah, don't you love the tropics?

If you take a look at the 500mb winds, the pattern suggests a similar scenario as to the 18z run...with a more southern track, across Hispaniola and Cuba...and towards the GOM or even Mexico. This real strong ridge will probably keep it south of Florida on this run.

[wxmann_91]

168 hr

Taken literally, latest run screams GOM

[Brent]

168 hours looks ominous for the NE Caribbean.

[ekal]

I have a feeling Florida gets eaten in this movie, er, I mean run.

Seriously, though, I don't blame Wxman57 for going to bed. By the time he gets back from his bike ride, two more runs, with two more Doomsday scenarios, will have passed, with still scores of other runs to come before anything definitive happens.

Ah, don't you love the tropics?

If you take a look at the 500mb winds, the pattern suggests a similar scenario as to the 18z run...with a more southern track, across Hispaniola and Cuba...and towards the GOM or even Mexico. This real strong ridge will probably keep it south of Florida on this run.

Oh, I don't know. That last 500mb graphic shows a transient weakness near Bermuda that is pulling the storm north a bit.

[miamicanes177]

GFS is starting to apply the cement. Yep, don't raise your hands all at once. If you live along the gulf coast get ready.