Global Models Thread for 90L

[cycloneye]

168 hr

Taken literally, latest run screams GOM

Yes,it is heading my way.But many things can happen from being a fish to not developing at all so I am taking it in a relaxed way.

[wxmann_91]

I have a feeling Florida gets eaten in this movie, er, I mean run.

Seriously, though, I don't blame Wxman57 for going to bed. By the time he gets back from his bike ride, two more runs, with two more Doomsday scenarios, will have passed, with still scores of other runs to come before anything definitive happens.

Ah, don't you love the tropics?

If you take a look at the 500mb winds, the pattern suggests a similar scenario as to the 18z run...with a more southern track, across Hispaniola and Cuba...and towards the GOM or even Mexico. This real strong ridge will probably keep it south of Florida on this run.

Oh, I don't know. That last 500mb graphic shows a transient weakness near Bermuda that is pulling the storm north a bit.

There is a mid level anticyclone to the east of FL... H5 winds to SW... looks like Georges, from what I see.

GFS has just pulled into concurrence with the Euro, for the second primary run in a row.

[skysummit]

GFS is starting to apply the cement. Yep, don't raise your hands all at once. If you live along the gulf coast get ready.

This is only 3 runs. Prior to this, it was 4 runs showing a re-curve. I'm sure we'll see it in New York at least 2 more times.

[sevenleft]

I have a feeling Florida gets eaten in this movie, er, I mean run.

Seriously, though, I don't blame Wxman57 for going to bed. By the time he gets back from his bike ride, two more runs, with two more Doomsday scenarios, will have passed, with still scores of other runs to come before anything definitive happens.

Ah, don't you love the tropics?

If you take a look at the 500mb winds, the pattern suggests a similar scenario as to the 18z run...with a more southern track, across Hispaniola and Cuba...and towards the GOM or even Mexico. This real strong ridge will probably keep it south of Florida on this run.

Well I wasn't even close.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

192 hr=Near 20N 65W

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Has FL written all over it! Maybe East Coast. We'll see.

[Extremeweatherguy]

:lol: Wxmn57.......heres hoping neither......I just can't believe such a long tracker the ridge doesnt break down at some point and track it poleward. I mean we are talking 10-12 days from now......I don't think there any way this is GOM bound....IMO, its PR, FL and up the EC........

Well it does break the ridge down a bit toward day 3-5 and then it rebuilds it shortly after. That doesn't sound too far fetched, and it very well could build back in time to keep this heading west. That being said though, I don't think anyone (except may be those in the islands) needs to worry about this system right now. We still have plenty of time to watch this.

[cycloneye]

228 hours

Bahamas.

[skysummit]

Has FL written all over it! Maybe East Coast. We'll see.

...and this is coming from a Pro Met? I wouldn't expect this kind of comment from a pro.

[ROCK]

168 hr

Taken literally, latest run screams GOM

Yes,it is heading my way.But many things can happen from being a fish to not developing at all so I am taking it in a relaxed way.

Good approach Cycloneye.....I am not really bothered by the last run into the GOM. Really a long way away and anything can and will happen....

[ekal]

I have a feeling Florida gets eaten in this movie, er, I mean run.

Seriously, though, I don't blame Wxman57 for going to bed. By the time he gets back from his bike ride, two more runs, with two more Doomsday scenarios, will have passed, with still scores of other runs to come before anything definitive happens.

Ah, don't you love the tropics?

If you take a look at the 500mb winds, the pattern suggests a similar scenario as to the 18z run...with a more southern track, across Hispaniola and Cuba...and towards the GOM or even Mexico. This real strong ridge will probably keep it south of Florida on this run.

Well I wasn't even close.

No, but maybe I'm not, either. Looks like it is trying to decide whether to smack Georgia around.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_240l.gif

East coast possibily if this holds true.

[Stormcenter]

Wouldn't it be funny if all of these posts were for nothing and this thing never materializes despite the GFS. Remember now Katrina basically formed in the Bahamas and look how strong it got and what it did. It doesn't have to form eay out in the Atlantic to be a monster storm. I would look close to home (NW Carribean,Bahamas & GOM) for the possible whoppers in 2007...if we have any.

[brunota2003]

Floyd?

[Brent]

Floyd track(after the islands)?

[wxmann_91]

Well funny... my futile attempt at forecasting a model forecast failed.

I'm actually sorta excited. I should just stop now before I get dissapointed.

Don't get me wrong though, the GFS has had a bout of bad physics this run. The 500mb pattern will not allow for northward progression. Storms don't attempt to recurve with NW flow at H5!

[Aquawind]

AOL Keyword = DEVELOPMENT.. that's about all we can count on..

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Finally makes landfall in the East, Northeastern Seaboard
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[sevenleft]

Floyd track(after the islands)?

Outerbanks to DC..we're running out of major locations. 6z could be straight up the Chesapeake!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_372l.gif

If this were true, it would run up E coast of FL and up East Coast.