Global Models Thread for 90L

[Opal storm]

Anything past 90 hours is pretty much crap coming from GFS, I'm more concerned with the short term.

[vaffie]

Part of the reason I suspect that it ends up recurving in this run is that it has this low pressure trough in the Western Caribbean hanging around in the same place for the next 10 days. If that were not to happen, the high would be stronger and recurving may not occur.

[skysummit]

So let's see...if the pattern holds, we'll see another east coast storm in the 06z, and then back to the Gulf in the 12z and the 18z and then start all over again LOL.

[Brent]

Ding! Floyd track almost exactly.

But it's 12 days out and will change again.

[ekal]

Wouldn't it be funny if all of these posts were for nothing and this thing never materializes despite the GFS. Remember now Katrina basically formed in the Bahamas and look how strong it got and what it did. It doesn't have to form eay out in the Atlantic to be a monster storm. I would look close to home (NW Carribean,Bahamas & GOM) for the possible whoppers in 2007...if we have any.

Completely hilarious. I'll be the first to admit that our model watching borders on OCD behavior, and that watching GFS runs at hour 240 is what I get for not bothering to see a movie tonight.

And yeah, about forecasting the forecast model, that was a blockbuster ending.

[brunota2003]

Oh yay...now it shows it making landfall over top of my head T.T Go me.

[miamicanes177]

It looks for now the only cement that has been applied is taking it to the lesser antillies. It's done this every time so it is high confidence. After that is a guess.

[Aquawind]

The fact is the ridging has been inconsistent and that far out is very much a tough call. We have already had a few runs take it up the east coast.. no surprise.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Has FL written all over it! Maybe East Coast. We'll see.

...and this is coming from a Pro Met? I wouldn't expect this kind of comment from a pro.

I agree. This is a long range run we are talking about. There is no way, based off this model alone, to predict that a storm will hit FL or even the east coast at such a long range. Now if a met were willing to offer lots of other information (not all based on models) to back a long-range statement such as this up (such as what JB does with teleconnections), then that is a different story, but to base a prediction soley off of the 0z GFS run at over 200 hours out is silly..especially when the previous run had a much different scenario portrayed.

I say we actually let this system develop before worrying too much about the end game.


update = I think KFDMs statement was probably just a model observation statement...and not an actual prediction...so ignore this post.

[Hurricaneman]

if this came true, I would get high end noreaster conditions, as I said "If this comes true" a big if

[wxmann_91]

And yeah, about forecasting the forecast model, that was a blockbuster ending.

But I want a storm now.

Oh well...

In all seriousness though, if the Euro and GFS prognostications at H5 are even closely correct at 240 hr, this will not ride up the east coast. BUT, they won't be closely correct. And the chances of a storm even developing are still not that good attm.

[cycloneye]

Folks,lets post the 00z runs of CMC,NOGAPS,UKMET and EURO here as the other thread is for GFS only.

[Stratosphere747]

Good grief! He was talking about the model run, and what he said is exactly what this run shows. Quit taking a comment so literally. He never meant it as a forecast.

[Opal storm]

Considering this hasn't even emerged off Africa yet, I would NOT get too hung up on the long range forecast.

[Sanibel]

That run took it right over Wilmington.

[Aquawind]

Good grief! He was talking about the model run, and what he said is exactly what this run shows. Quit taking a comment so literally. He never meant it as a forecast.

It was just a model observation.. I think we all know the reality of that..

[ekal]

And yeah, about forecasting the forecast model, that was a blockbuster ending.

But I want a storm now.

Oh well...

In all seriousness though, if the Euro and GFS prognostications at H5 are even closely correct at 240 hr, this will not ride up the east coast. BUT, they won't be closely correct. And the chances of a storm even developing are still not that good attm.

Well, there was that ONE time in Southern Cali when...

Yes, that ridge is a monster, and unlikely at that. Few storms form near the CVs and make it to the coast, with Georges as evidence that a few buck the trend.

[Scorpion]

For some reason the fact that Florida is in between the two areas that the GFS wants to bring this storm to(the GOM and Carolinas) makes me feel uneasy.

[Stratosphere747]

Good grief! He was talking about the model run, and what he said is exactly what this run shows. Quit taking a comment so literally. He never meant it as a forecast.

It was just a model observation.. I think we all know the reality of that..

6z run will have it back in the Gulf and hitting Galveston. GFS aims to keep everyone happy throughout the day...

[Aquawind]

NOGAPS still behind the ball..

48hrs

http://tinyurl.com/36fg5p


120 hrs

http://tinyurl.com/3de8s4