Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

[tailgater]

I'm expecting a large blow up @ 13N 80W by morning. Quick scat of last evening.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?445,227

by daylight tomorrow everyone will be all over this thing again. Or I could be wrong for the first time ever.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/202.jpg

[vaffie]

GFS 72 hours--low down to 1009 mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

GFS 108 hours--a 1009 mb low in the Bay of Campeche and another one still east of Belize. The Atlantic blob however continues to capture one's attention in this model run.

132 hours--the BoC low goes west into Mexico, the one east of Belize stays put, and the Atlantic storm continues to barrel its way towards the NE Caribbean.

144 hours--still low in west Caribbean, Atlantic storm east of Guadaloupe. At this rate the Caribbean low might end up affecting the Atlantic storm's track!

[srainhoutx]

Remember, slow development is the key. Things appear to be getting primed.

[Normandy]

That area south of Haiti/DR looks somewhat suspicious....convection has persisted for a while now but its undergoing a bit of shear.

[Nimbus]

Still lots of shear from the Bahamas ULL and the models are developing only Mexican bound areas south of 15N. Not much out there this morning except the start of a convection flare near 15N 78W. I'll take the good news for now, if new data conflicts with the models we will hear it on S2k first.

[Aquawind]

Still lots of shear from the Bahamas ULL and the models are developing only Mexican bound areas south of 15N. Not much out there this morning except the start of a convection flare near 15N 78W. I'll take the good news for now, if new data conflicts with the models we will hear it on S2k first.

Well said.. Slowwww Development alrighty.. IF ANY..

[Normandy]

I would put very very very little faith in the models at this point....two days ago they indicated that something would be beginning to form near the yucatan and looks whats near the yucatan....nothing.

[DrewFL]

Here's what Houston has to say this morning:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 AM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007


MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW VARYING OPINIONS ON POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE YUCATAN/GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THAT SOME MAY BE TRENDING MORE
TOWARD THE WESTWARD MOVING OPEN WAVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST THAT
THE GFS HAS BEEN DEPICTING FOR A WHILE - WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. 47

[Portastorm]

Convection seems to be active this morning around 17 north, 78 west ... is this a result of a convergence zone?

The upper low in the Bahamas doesn't seem to be going anywhere fast either.

[Sanibel]

My eye sees a possible swirl north of Hispaniola - but it's probably satellite illusion.

Ragged convection persisting in ULL shear in Caribbean today.

[Aric Dunn]

looks mid level

[SouthFloridawx]

Man if that convection could keep firing and something could spin up... looks like it would have a pretty nice outflow jet.

[dwg71]

Keep searching guys, between now and Novemeber I'm sure something will develop in the Western Caribbean.

[Meso]

Here's the 12z NAM

[Sjones]

Here's the 12z NAM

Wow! Very impressive!!!

[ROCK]

Keep searching guys, between now and Novemeber I'm sure something will develop in the Western Caribbean.

And you keep hoping nothing does develope....

[Portastorm]

The area south-southwest of Jamaica looks quite active this morning, doesn't it?

I've been more skeptical than anything else about something happening here ... but it's hard to deny the satellite presentation. If this trend can continue for 12 more hours we may finally have SOMETHING to consider.

[Nimbus]

The ULL that has been over the Bahamas is finally starting to lift north. That will lessen the shear over the NW Caribbean. Maybe we will have a circulation by tommorrow night.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB is still holding strong this afternoon with his prediction of a TS to develop and affect the western GOM over the next week. I guess we will see...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Could happen! But that would certainly be a Mexico or S. Texas storm.