Anthonyl wrote:Hyperstorm, this one is for you. Do you see this accute northern component that the modles are showing or could we see a more southerly track through the isalnds. I do know it is a great ask to survey the dynamics at this point,but you seem to surely know your tropical weather.
Anthony, I am able to tell you that there is nothing that we can do to predict how a system will behave a week from now. Models are less accurate the further you go out in time. Right now, models are hinting at a more northerly component toward the northern islands or even just north of them. Climatology would suggest that an early developer would move WNW and not totally west throughout the Atlantic. A stronger ridge would keep the system almost due west for a while. Keep monitoring it and we'll have a much better idea once there is an actual system to track (as that info will be fed into the models) and of course the closer we are in time.