Vigorous tropical wave in Eastern Atlantic

[Hyperstorm]

The system is firing up very intense convection as we speak, again. This means that the system is maintaining itself. That's over 12 hours of persistence. I mentioned last night that that would be the minimum for invest classification. Well, it's only a matter of time before the NHC takes notice and mentions it at the 11:30 TWO with potential for development. Invest classification should occur at anytime today.

The explosion of convection during these hours indicates that the system is progressing into better organization...

[cycloneye]

The latest 12:15 UTC infared image.Deep convection persists.

[Derek Ortt]

hate to say it... but check out Hawaii... we have a cat 4 heading there. That's where the real action is, not an area of storms off of Africa. This is a mere wave that could develop, but is not an immediate threat to anyone

[windstorm99]

Thunderstorm activity has somewhat been on the decrease with the wave of the african coast but we'll what happenes as it deals with some SAL in the vicinity.

[cycloneye]

hate to say it... but check out Hawaii... we have a cat 4 heading there. That's where the real action is, not an area of storms off of Africa. This is a mere wave that could develop, but is not an immediate threat to anyone

I posted a sticky thread for the members to go to the active storms forum.

[Aric Dunn]

its offshore now finally.. now its worth watching

[cycloneye]

The sal is not as dense as in June and July.

[DrewFL]

MET OFFICE :


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 10.7N 18.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 11.08.2007 10.7N 18.9W WEAK

00UTC 12.08.2007 12.5N 24.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.08.2007 11.6N 25.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.08.2007 11.8N 28.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 13.08.2007 12.1N 31.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 14.08.2007 12.5N 34.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.08.2007 12.6N 37.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 15.08.2007 13.1N 40.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 15.08.2007 14.4N 44.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.08.2007 15.1N 48.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 16.08.2007 16.6N 52.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.08.2007 17.8N 54.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

[HollynLA]

hate to say it... but check out Hawaii... we have a cat 4 heading there. That's where the real action is, not an area of storms off of Africa. This is a mere wave that could develop, but is not an immediate threat to anyone

This is a thread about the wave off of Africa, hence why there is so much discussion here regarding this wave and not Flossie.

[Aric Dunn]

[CourierPR]

On the Weatherman 911 site, Lou wrote that pro met Stacy Stewart advises that a light SAL outbreak enhances TC formation because water droplets form around the dust particles. Accordingly, let's see how this system deals with any dust encounter.

[Aric Dunn]

is it just me or none satellite site of the eastern atlantic updating..
the e-wall site wont update and all i have from the noaa site is from 8z.. eumetsat works but you can only see a small part of it .. i hate this stupid africa no satellite thing its really annoying ..

[weatherguru18]

On the Weatherman 911 site, Lou wrote that pro met Stacy Stewart advises that a light SAL outbreak enhances TC formation because water droplets form around the dust particles. Accordingly, let's see how this system deals with any dust encounter.

I thought it was just the opposite.

[DrewFL]

is it just me or none satellite site of the eastern atlantic updating..
the e-wall site wont update and all i have from the noaa site is from 8z.. eumetsat works but you can only see a small part of it .. i hate this stupid africa no satellite thing its really annoying ..

Try this one:


https://www.nemoc.navy.mil/site/satellite/

[canegrl04]

Interestingly,on the last tropical update by TWC,Steve Lyon played it conservatively by saying "conditions are not unfavorable for development"

[Sanibel]

It just struck me that Flossie could be telling us atmospheric conditions are becoming favorable for well formed, strong storms like Flossie to finally get a footing...

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 111520
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
SOUTHERN CUBA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AT IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED FROM AFRICA OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[bvigal]

When's the last time you saw a CONSENSUS that looked like this, on a storm that hadn't formed yet?

[storms in NC]

ABNT20 KNHC 111520
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
SOUTHERN CUBA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AT IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED FROM AFRICA OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS [b]AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[/b]

It could out run itself

[punkyg]

When's the last time you saw a CONSENSUS that looked like this, on a storm that hadn't formed yet?

I say never cause i was never able to find the site with the model.

so right now this is a firsty.