Vigorous tropical wave in Eastern Atlantic

[DrewFL]

Here is the link

http://www.katc.com/Global/link.asp?L=170292

It is in the 2nd paragraph. Yesterday's blog.

That's no problem. He's just talking about the GFS and saying something "may" be in the Gulf. Nothing wrong with that.

[Brent]

This still looks quite impressive. This is going to be a big problem for someone...

[clfenwi]

Here is the link

http://www.katc.com/Global/link.asp?L=170292

It is in the 2nd paragraph. Yesterday's blog.

So, it was an analyst for a financial firm making the statement about it hitting the gulf in two weeks not the meteorologist himself. The meteorologist actually does a good job of keeping the situation rational.

However, I did wish he linked to the article that he got the quote from. Some quick googling found it:

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Business/852561.html

The quote in question:

Forecasts show the disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical storm and strike the Gulf of Mexico within two weeks, said Addison Armstrong, an analyst at TFS Energy Futures LLC in Stamford, Conn.

And as much as I would like to bash the statement, it is at a wholly truthful statement. Now one could read implications into it that the analyst is trying to swap the words 'has the potential' with 'is going to', but that would be introducing material that isn't present in the story.

[bvigal]

Yeah, great to have 12z sat shot now at 1600z. I wrote that dumb EUMETSAT once. They won't give anything to the public less than 3hrs, they want to make $$$$$. The United States is the only country in world that spends so much and freely gives to everyone. GO USA. Europe and Africa - razzberry!!!

[HenkL]

Hourly images Eumetsat here.

[hial2]

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Business/852561.html

The quote in question:

Forecasts show the disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical storm and strike the Gulf of Mexico within two weeks, said Addison Armstrong, an analyst at TFS Energy Futures LLC in Stamford, Conn.

.

Gentlemen (and ladies) yo don't know the financial implications of this statement in regards to oil prices..If I had the money,I would be investing heavily in oil futures..They will undoubtably go up next week,and with it gasoline prices..

I might not know where a hurricane will hit,but these scare tactics will drive the market to a frenzy,especially when (if) it gets closer to the gulf..count on it..


***DISCLAIMER***The above statement is my own personal amateur opinion...this may or may not happen..I'm not a stock broker nor have any inside information as to what may occur with oil prices or the future of oil prices now or in the coming months....

[cycloneye]

[canegrl04]

I'm sure Mr. Armstrong knows what hes doing. The big wigs in the oil industry,rest assured consult with the top minds in the meteorogical field to protect their interests

[Cryomaniac]

I'm sure Mr. Armstrong knows what hes doing. The big wigs in the oil industry,rest assured consult with the top minds in the meteorogical field to protect their interests

Read as: "Increase prices" [/cynicism]

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,lets not stray away from the real theme about the vigorous wave South of the Cape Verde Islands.

[Aric Dunn]

Try this one:


https://www.nemoc.navy.mil/site/satellite/

thanks.. works great! but they still need to work on the whole only images every 3 hours thing thats annoying as well

That's not the fault of the website; it is because of the policy of the organization that runs the satellite, EUMETSAT. Only images of Europe get distributed for free hourly.

yeah i know.. its annoying!!

[cycloneye]

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W AND 19W
SOUTH OF 20N...STILL EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A 1006 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N ALONG THE WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND
22W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH.



2 PM Discussion from TPC.

[MGC]

I don't think this wave will develope into a TC in the short term. The SAL is the primary inhibiting factor once again. Perhaps as the wave moves away from the African coast it will have a better chance. Convection seems to be diminishing this afternoon....MGC

[cycloneye]

Umm low pressure is at 10n more south than this morning when it was at 11n.

[vacanechaser]

I don't think this wave will develope into a TC in the short term. The SAL is the primary inhibiting factor once again. Perhaps as the wave moves away from the African coast it will have a better chance. Convection seems to be diminishing this afternoon....MGC

i disagree... the sal is nothing of note... it is much weaker thean we have seen.... and if it can draw in air and moisture from the itcz, then there is no real problem with sal....



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

A strong tropical wave exited the coast of Africa yesterday, and is now a 1006 mb low pressure system with heavy thunderstorm activity southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. The system is not well-organized at present, and has lost some of its thunderstorm activity since exiting the coast of Africa. This is typical for such systems, which take a day or two to adjust to their new oceanic environment before they build new thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots early this morning to about 20 knots over the region, and wind shear is forecast to continue to drop as the wave continues westward. There is burst of dry air and African dust emerging from the African coast just north of the Cape Verdes, but this is probably too far away to affect the storm.

This system has the potential to become a tropical depression as early as Monday. Most of the computer models develop it into a tropical depression that moves west to west-northwest over the Atlantic towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and I think this is a reasonable forecast that has a 60% chance of coming true. We are into mid-August, when these waves traditionally start to develop, and the dry air and dust associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) does not appear to be a major impediment at present. Wind shear should be low enough and water temperatures warm enough. Water temperatures are about 26-27C south of the Cape Verdes Islands, and gradually warm to 27-28C southwest of the islands, so the chances for development increase as the system gets further west.

If you live in the Lesser Antilles Islands, or plan on visiting next week, keep in mind that this forecast puts the Lesser Antilles at increased risk of a seeing a tropical cyclone beginning Friday, August 17. For the period August 17 - August 20, there is at least a 10% chance that a tropical storm or hurricane will affect these islands. Given the high uncertainties that a storm will form, or even make it across the Atlantic without recurving, should it form, one should not be canceling any travel plans at this point. However, you should be giving serious thought to your hurricane plan and what you would do if a hurricane did blow through the islands. Also, keep in minds that several of the computer models develop the next wave moving off the coast of Africa, a week later than the current wave. We are into the active part of hurricane season, and we can expect that one of these waves will develop and threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands--and points beyond--in August.


Discussion about this wave by Jeff Masters from Weatherunderground site.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

[canegrl04]

WIND SHEAR DROPPED FROM 30KTS TO 20 KTS,SAL TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE BIG IMPACT.

Conditions are changing to favorable .Just in time for this wave

[cycloneye]

This image updates every 3 hours.

[windstorm99]

Lastest infrared image...

Thunderstorm activity has been decreasing somewhat over the past couple of hours.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hey guys I am not a professional met, nor do I claim to know anything technical about canes. But our local met here in Lafayette, LA is sure talking about this one. And saying it will be in the GOM by Aug 22nd.

You need to switch to a different TV station. Anyone forecasting that today is foolish.

If it is Rob Perillo, I'd listen. Back when I worked offshore and lived in LFT, Perillo was good.