Global Models Thread for 90L

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Brent
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Re: Models thread=12 GFS is rolling in (PAGE 10)

#221 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:28 am

156 hours, headed for Puerto Rico, 995 mb?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif
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Scorpion

#222 Postby Scorpion » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:29 am

That would be pretty bad for the island
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Re: Models thread=12 GFS is rolling in (PAGE 10)

#223 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:30 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:in the hebert box?


Yes I think it is the Herbert Box. Looks more and more likely that the ridging will hold and prevent a recurvature into the open Atlantic.
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Re: Models thread=12 GFS is rolling in (PAGE 10)

#224 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:31 am

cycloneye wrote:
wzrgirl1 wrote:in the hebert box?



According to this 12z GFS run it passes south of 20n-60w.


hebert box is between 15 and 20 degrees and 60-65 degrees so it could still pass south of 20 degrees and be within it....i think
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Re: Models thread=12 GFS is rolling in (PAGE 10)

#225 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:33 am

168 hours, hit on Puerto Rico, 993 mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
Last edited by Brent on Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#226 Postby Agua » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:33 am

If I recall correctly, Hebert Box was a necessary, but not sufficient, precedent to a major eastern SFL landfall.
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Re: Models thread=12 GFS is rolling in (PAGE 10)

#227 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:34 am

156 hours

Hurricane in NE Caribbean.

168 hours

Over my head but I am relaxed. :)
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Re: Models thread=12 GFS is rolling in (PAGE 10)

#228 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:36 am

Brent wrote:168 hours, hit on Puerto Rico, 993 mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif


While bad for Puerto Rico, DR, & Haiti, on that path the mountains of Hispanola will seriously weaken this monster.
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Re:

#229 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:37 am

Agua wrote:If I recall correctly, Hebert Box was a necessary, but not sufficient, precedent to a major eastern SFL landfall.


i think it was proved that 9 out of 10 storms that went through the box as a cat. 3 or higher ended up affecting south florida....not sure how accurate that is though
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Re: Models thread=12 GFS is rolling in (PAGE 10)

#230 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:39 am

180 hours, over the DR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

192, north coast of Haiti

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

204 hours, SE Bahamas

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif
Last edited by Brent on Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Models thread=12 GFS is rolling in (PAGE 10)

#231 Postby Scorpion » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:40 am

Feeling the weakness at 204?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204m.gif
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Re: Models thread=12 GFS is rolling in (PAGE 10)

#232 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:41 am

Scorpion wrote:Feeling the weakness at 204?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204m.gif

Doesn't look like there is much of a weakness..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_204l.gif
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Re: Models thread=12 GFS is rolling in (PAGE 10)

#233 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:42 am

216, just north of Cuba

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif

228, about to make landfall in SE Florida!!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif
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#234 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:42 am

Looks like the 12z run wants to take this through the FL straights.
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Re: Models thread=12 GFS is rolling in (PAGE 10)

#235 Postby Scorpion » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:43 am

Thats some HOT water around there... could help it regain intensity
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Re: Models thread=12 GFS is rolling in (PAGE 10)

#236 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:44 am

240, into the SE Gulf.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

264, landfall in FL Panhandle

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif
Last edited by Brent on Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#237 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:45 am

recurve into panhandle in this run..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif
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#238 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:46 am

and look whats right on its heels...yet another possible TC....at 264 hours....in central atlantic...its anybody's guess now...all bets are off...
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Re:

#239 Postby vacanechaser » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:48 am

'CaneFreak wrote:and look whats right on its heels...yet another possible TC....at 264 hours....in central atlantic...its anybody's guess now...all bets are off...


yep... that one looks to be on a course for the east coast if the trend continues... but of course, all subject to change... the second one would possibly threaten the east coast due to the first weakening the ridge or pushing it eastward...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Re:

#240 Postby storms in NC » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:49 am

'CaneFreak wrote:and look whats right on its heels...yet another possible TC....at 264 hours....in central atlantic...its anybody's guess now...all bets are off...



It is anyone guess now with this one.
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