Global Models Thread for 90L

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL....

I would rather the models say a close call now than 10 days from now having it pointed at you!

[Sanibel]

GFS now plowing a big Atlantic monster in a hook up the SW coast of Florida right over Sanibel...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Can't wait to see what the 18Z GFS shows.. It doesn't have all the data put into it like the 12 and 0Z runs.

[brunota2003]

GFS now plowing a big Atlantic monster in a hook up the SW coast of Florida right over Sanibel...

Its ten days out and the models do not accurately depict the center...I think this topic fits nicely:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96420
The models last night had it hitting me, before that, it was Texas...

[SouthFloridawx]

That EURO track would be absolutely devastating for the Keys, SE, SW and depending on the track a good portion of the west coast of Florida.

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS now plowing a big Atlantic monster in a hook up the SW coast of Florida right over Sanibel...

Its ten days out and the models do not accurately depict the center...I think this topic fits nicely:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96420
The models last night had it hitting me, before that, it was Texas...

The EURO hasn't really changed in about 2 days though.

[shortwave]

anyone know the exact margin of error for location and strength 10 days out? a bit hungover to look it up at the moment..lol

The average 5-day track error from the NHC last year was just under 300 nautical miles ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/OFCL_ATL_trk_error_trend_noTDs.gif )...and that was for developed systems. The current error for an undevloped system at 10+ days could easily be up to 700-1000+ nautical miles. lol. Basically it is a crap shoot.

The only thing we can really say for sure right now is that over the next 3-5 days this should remain on a generally westward course under the bermuda high to it's north.

Thanx for the info! I guess the proper thing to say at this point would be, "Place your bets"

[Brent]

anyone know the exact margin of error for location and strength 10 days out? a bit hungover to look it up at the moment..lol

The average 5-day track error from the NHC last year was just under 300 nautical miles ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/OFCL_ATL_trk_error_trend_noTDs.gif )...and that was for developed systems. The current error for an undevloped system at 10+ days could easily be up to 700-1000+ nautical miles. lol. Basically it is a crap shoot.

The only thing we can really say for sure right now is that over the next 3-5 days this should remain on a generally westward course under the bermuda high to it's north.

Thanx for the info! I guess the proper thing to say at this point would be, "Place your bets"

Yeah, there's no point in worrying or freaking out about anything yet. It's gonna be 5-6 days before it even effects the islands.

Defintely bears watching though, I think this will easily be the first real storm of the year.

[shortwave]

when/if the storm materializes, will mid-level ridging be the dominant steering mechanism?

[SouthFloridawx]

The Euro animated model output.

http://tinyurl.com/yr5g5g

[Sanibel]

What I don't like is the fact that the CONUS WV http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html is showing the mild summer troughs across the US going W-E in orientation in a zonal pattern. This could be in response to a nosing ridge in the tropics of the type that steered storms into Florida before. (ie GFS accurate and reading it correctly)

[hurricanetrack]

Wow. That is amazing. Been a while since we have seen a long track hurricane. This will be interesting to watch unfold.

On another note, why is the NOGAPS a no-show for this one? Anyone seen its latest run? Nada. Nothing, zip. Just lower pressures off of CF'ville

[Blown Away]

GFS now plowing a big Atlantic monster in a hook up the SW coast of Florida right over Sanibel...

Over Sanibel, thought it was going through the straits? Link please.

[Sanibel]

Hit "850mb Loop" at top of column second in from left:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/model_m.shtml


Donna track with less hook.

[Wx_Warrior]

Great for western GOM but terrible for eastern GOM....Let the betting begin!

Would love to see odds on this thing ONCE it forms.

[canegrl04]

Great for western GOM but terrible for eastern GOM....Let the betting begin!

Would love to see odds on this thing ONCE it forms.

I bet it hits Florida.Not brave enough to say exactly where,or the strength yet

[SouthFloridawx]

18Z is Rolling out
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/model_l.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS 18z at 18hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018l.gif

1008mbs.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

This will be fun. The 18Z and 6Z runs are not my favorate.

[HURRICANE ILM]

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1