Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

[DrewFL]

The ULL that has been over the Bahamas is finally starting to lift north. That will lessen the shear over the NW Caribbean. Maybe we will have a circulation by tommorrow night.

You sure that TUTT is moving North? Here's what Miami says:

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...TODAY`S FORECAST IS TRICKY.
ALTHOUGH S. FL WILL BE LOCATED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE
TUTT LOW (WHICH WOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS MUCH ACTIVITY)...MDLS ACTUALLY
INDICATE UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AS THE LOW MOVES WSW AND UPR LVL WINDS
INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

[MGC]

No development here in the short term. Wave is interacting with ULL causing the increase in convection. Upper level winds are unfavorable ATT......MGC

[xironman]

Probably an illusion but maybe something off the southwest tip of Jamaica here, maybe midlevel.

[Nimbus]

You sure that TUTT is moving North?

Run the water vapor imagery 15 frames there is no SW movement if anything the TUTT is weakening and moving NW.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

[Sanibel]

There's definitely a broad, turning surface Low just north of Panama. One model originated the system here.
Next is a possible synoptic eddy turning off Belize.

I don't see anything under the mess near Jamaica, but do note CMC had a tropical Low exactly in that spot for today.


NIMBUS: I ran your loop and the TUTT is sliding slightly S of W .

[Brent]

It looks awfully ominous down there...

[hriverajr]

There is quite a bit of energy in this area, There is just not any particular feature you can hang you hat on for development
The upper level low just to the east of florida does seem to be moving west or westsouthwest in tandem with the disturbed area and at the moment and
is probably inhibiting development. I have the feeling there will be some development eventually. The question is how far north this happens.

[caneman]

I agree with Nimbus it appears to be moving just North of West. And at a fairly good clip/ Give it another 24 hours and we'll if the convection was purely ULL induced or see if anything left.

[HURAKAN]

A lot of energy!!!

[Aric Dunn]

all i can say is take a look at the much improved broad circ.. east of Belize.. convection really starting increase this afternoon. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html 20 images medum zoom NW carribean...

[Aric Dunn]

do not let your guard down in the NW carrib its going to happen sooner rather later !!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

here is a crude image of whats going on

might have to zoom in!

the complex system showing some more promise today than yesterday ... must watch closer now..




http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html

[Weatherfreak000]

This area is likely to become Dean first, with 90L becoming Erin.


Quite interesting indeed. I wonder where that guy was who kept stating this season wasn't going to amount to anything.

[Aric Dunn]

This area is likely to become Dean first, with 90L becoming Erin.


Quite interesting indeed. I wonder where that guy was who kept stating this season wasn't going to amount to anything.

lol yeah .... i did not think anyone would even reply there too busy watching 3hr apart satellite images near 90L

[Portastorm]

No Aric, this is a lot closer to home for me than 90L. I'm watching this area closely. As has been stated by other folks, there is a LOT of energy boiling up in the western Carribbean.

Thanks for your posts!

[Brent]

This area is likely to become Dean first, with 90L becoming Erin.


Quite interesting indeed. I wonder where that guy was who kept stating this season wasn't going to amount to anything.

They always disappear when storms start. It happens every year. We probably won't see them for a long time...

[Aric Dunn]

wnw offshore honduras

east at the NW carribean buoy!! hmmm.,..... weak circulation i would say

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html

[Sanibel]

Now, now, "Let he who is without embarrassing bust throw the first hailstone". LOL

[HollynLA]

wnw offshore honduras

east at the NW carribean buoy!! hmmm.,..... weak circulation i would say

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html

but is it at the surface? I think this system could possibly catch some others off guard due to the interest in 90L.

[Aric Dunn]

Now, now, "Let he who is without embarrassing bust throw the first hailstone". LOL

huh