Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

[Weatherfreak000]

Convection continuing to fire, if this holds steady I wouldn't be surprised to see 91L after 10 tonight

[Aric Dunn]

wnw offshore honduras

east at the NW carribean buoy!! hmmm.,..... weak circulation i would say

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html

but is it at the surface? I think this system could possibly catch some others off guard due to the interest in 90L.

umm i would say so. since the observations are from the surface at the buoy and the island of rotan off the coast of honduras

[Sanibel]

Those who said it wouldn't form Aric.


If this does form I wonder what it will do to the Atlantic storm?

[Aric Dunn]

Those who said it wouldn't form Aric.


If this does form I wonder what it will do to the Atlantic storm?

oh ok .. lol

that is a really good question.. to early to tell way way to far out but should have some sort of effect on the ridge

[Eyewall]

look around 87W 18.5N
i think i see somthing happening there

[Aric Dunn]

look around 87W 18.5N
i think i see somthing happening there

yeah i pointed that out on the previous page! its starting to get its act together

[Sanibel]

look around 87W 18.5N
i think i see somthing happening there

Concur. Aric and I saw that but were waiting on it.

Think we have a spinner there. I see "S" curvature at the surface and in the convection band over Yucatan.

Good eye!

[Aric Dunn]

171
ABNT20 KNHC 112114
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CUBA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AT IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Eyewall]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

water temp around 87F
plenty warm folks.. just need some more moisture

[xironman]

I still like just south of Jamaica. Seems like a broad turning going on there, and it does not appear to be in a hurry to go anywhere.

['CaneFreak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

water temp around 87F
plenty warm folks.. just need some more moisture

moisture????? are you serious? c'mon dude...

[Brent]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

water temp around 87F
plenty warm folks.. just need some more moisture

moisture????? are you serious? c'mon dude...

Looks like PLENTY of moisture to me.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

water temp around 87F
plenty warm folks.. just need some more moisture

moisture????? are you serious? c'mon dude...

Looks like PLENTY of moisture to me.

be nice!

[MiamiensisWx]

I think this system is becoming more noteworthy, and I think it deserves more attention in the next TWO. The weak upper low is moving westward toward the Florida Keys, and it has enhanced strong upper divergence over the central Caribbean Sea. Evidently, there is a persistent weak sfc trough in the vicinity of Jamaica and the central Caribbean basin. Mid-level shear should slowly diminish over the next 48 hours, and all the essential ingredients for slow development should arise over this area. We have good sfc convergence; heat content is extremely warm; and low-level to mid-level vorticity could become established as a small jet streak enhances diurnal maximum convection.

Additionally, you can clearly see an area of consolidating convection (near 16N and 79W). Look at the current GOES visible loop. In my opinion, that area should be closely monitored. There is decent low-level convergence, and the diurnal maximum is arriving over the western Atlantic basin. This factor could really enhance noctural convective activity within the next 24 to 36 hours, especially because of the increasingly favorable factors and upper-air setup. I think we could witness the early stages of a sfc low formation, which could ignite the trigger for slow cyclogenesis. I think the upper-air pattern indicates the Atlantic basin will heat up within the next few weeks. We are not turning back - this is the real deal, IMO.

We have two potential systems. 90L has a fair shot at development over the long term (likely sooner than we think), and I think concern should grow over this system's prospects. It is getting closer to an INVEST designation, IMO. I think Aric may have been on the money with this one...

[Aric Dunn]

I think this system is becoming more noteworthy, and I think it deserves more attention in the next TWO. The weak upper low is moving westward toward the Florida Keys, and it has enhanced strong upper divergence over the central Caribbean Sea. Evidently, there is a persistent weak sfc trough in the vicinity of Jamaica and the central Caribbean basin. Mid-level shear should slowly diminish over the next 48 hours, and all the essential ingredients for slow development should arise over this area. We have good sfc convergence; heat content is extremely warm; and low-level to mid-level vorticity could become established as a small jet streak enhances diurnal maximum convection.

Additionally, you can clearly see an area of consolidating convection (near 16N and 79W). Look at the current GOES visible loop. In my opinion, that area should be closely monitored. There is decent low-level convergence, and the diurnal maximum is arriving over the western Atlantic basin. This factor could really enhance noctural convective activity within the next 24 to 36 hours, especially because of the increasingly favorable factors and upper-air setup. I think we could witness the early stages of a sfc low formation, which could ignite the trigger for slow cyclogenesis. I think the upper-air pattern indicates the Atlantic basin will heat up within the next few weeks. We are not turning back - this is the real deal, IMO.

We have two potential systems. 90L has a fair shot at development over the long term (likely sooner than we think), and I think concern should grow over this system's prospects. I think Aric may have been on the money with this one...

agreed .. the low near or east of belize should stay fairly motionless while the broader turning in the Sw carrib lifts north I would say by tomorrow afternoon we will be getting closer to a well defined surface low its funny the CMC called for a similar situation with to lows forming(they are weak now i guess more just turning) but if you recall the fujiwara that the cmc was doing its very similar to what happening right now with the two weak areas of low pressure one is shooting north while other moving slowing wnw. I think both areas will come together (as i have been saying) tomorrow for its best chance of some development there after. quick note .. there is a lot i mean a lot going on in the western carrib i would be very surprised if nothing formed eventually.

[Sanibel]

Black ir! But still too busy for anything to form as an obvious center.

[Aric Dunn]

Black ir! But still too busy for anything to form as an obvious center.

yep .. just a whole lot of turning all over the place till tomorrow !! when we get some consolidation.. maybe

['CaneFreak]

-80 C Tops...havent seen that all year...this could get interesting...

[MiamiensisWx]

I see a weak anticyclone building over the area - this trend would generally support my original hypothesis. Here is the main area that should receive attention. Note the sufficient low-level inflow and upper-level diffluence on the northern, eastern, and southern sides. I see some good vorticity in the area per latest obs and maps. Shear should gradually decrease as the low to mid-level anticyclone builds over the system.

[Aric Dunn]

I see a weak anticyclone building over the area - this trend would generally support my original hypothesis. Here is the main area that should receive attention. Note the sufficient low-level inflow and upper-level diffluence on the northern, eastern, and southern sides. Shear should gradually decrease as the low to mid-level anticyclone builds over the system.

yeah that close enough .. i would still say a little more nw .. but yeah the low coming from the south should be in the area later tonight and swing more NW tomorrow and the wave from the east should also be converging roughly in that area