Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

[vacanechaser]

Well the last few "invests" have faded away.....the one that became TS Chantal being the exception....

which is not out of the norm for time of year... this will develop, how strong, cant or will not say.. i feel pretty confident with all the globals showing it...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Brent]

Well the last few "invests" have faded away.....the one that became TS Chantal being the exception....

which is not out of the norm for time of year... this will develop, how strong, cant or will not say.. i feel pretty confident with all the globals showing it...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Every year has invests that don't form, even 2005 did. I am very confident this one will develop. There is way too much model support AND consistency to write it off.

[windstorm99]

[punkyg]

I'm proud of 90L for keeping its convection through out the day maybe this will be our favorite storm of this year.

[RL3AO]

How do the sat floaters work? Do they have to reposition a satellite to get the pic?

[El Nino]

According to Wunderground, this is a 30mph Invest. We have a spin, a low. I'd like to know what we need more to have a TD ? Better organisation ?

[Brent]

How do the sat floaters work? Do they have to reposition a satellite to get the pic?

Yes, but I think it will have to get to about 30 W or so first, it's too far east right now.

[RL3AO]

Buoy 13001 shows a pressure of 1010mb, and a light north wind.

But it is really close to the convection so watch for a wind shift.

[punkyg]

Any one see the quikscat pass yet i think i just looked at the lastest one?

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bds124.png

[RL3AO]

Any one see the quikscat pass yet i think i just looked at the lastest one?

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bds124.png

Hello Dean?

[El Nino]

Almost TS force winds. I think they're waiting for more convection to declare it a TD.

[chadtm80]

[Cyclone1]

Uhh, so thats a closed low...

[canegrl04]

I'm proud of 90L for keeping its convection through out the day maybe this will be our favorite storm of this year.

If it becomes a cat 5 fish it will be my favorite storm.If it hits the US as a hurricane it won't be their favorite.Just something they will remeber for along time

[punkyg]

I'm proud of 90L for keeping its convection through out the day maybe this will be our favorite storm of this year.

If it becomes a cat 5 fish it will be my favorite storm.If it hits the US as a hurricane it won't be their favorite.Just something they will remeber for along time

I say its my favorite if it develops
and get to atleast 70mph winds.

[El Nino]

70 mph ? I think you're not taking a big risk. It'll be a major.

[Robjohn53]

If Wxman57 is conserned enough to watch this thing then i am too. His insite is way better then mine. we all figuar thing to ramp up anytime soon anyway. A couple friends that work for Nasa here are saying they are watching it as well.


Robjohn53

[Aric Dunn]

would not call it dean yet..

[Wx_Warrior]

This is going to get ugly for someone...Fingers crossed for the best scenario!

[MWatkins]

Couple of quick notes:

The BAM guidance is fairly bunched indicating the GFS is not expecting directional shear.

UKMET, which had been slower and further north with the system is now right in line with the GFS and Euro solutions...which have been pretty consistent with a west-runner near the Greater Antillies in the next 5 to 6 days.

NOGAPS is really the only model that doesn't see 90L right now...

Most of the convection is displaced east of where the clear wave axis is located (using QUIKSCAT imagery posted above). This suggests to me slow but steady development in the next 3 days or so as this moves westward...in line with the SHIPS guidance.

Guessing we will have a TD sometime tomorrow...

MW