Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

[cycloneye]

I've given a few friends a heads up on this. Everyone I know is *prepared* but putting it into action...we know what that means. I was supposed to go to Tortola that weekend. We're saying...three more days, we'll all make some decisions.
I am relying on S2K for real info, as I have before, as I watch but I am not skilled in more than watching. The pro's and close to pro's are my eyes...thank you.

You will not have any problem getting all the necessary information about this possible threat to the Caribbean as our resident pro mets and other good amateurs will provide the complete anaylisis and get to the bottomline about all the angles of this.So stay tuned here.

[robbielyn]

Will this storm go more north than it is now?

[artist]

there is a possibility this could hit Florida, if it develops, correct?

[Opal storm]

Will this storm go more north than it is now?

Not really, it might head more WNW after a few days but it should be pretty much due west till it reaches the islands.

[Brent]

there is a possibility this could hit Florida, if it develops, correct?

Defintely a possibility, but it's about 10 days away. Could go pretty much to any coastal state.

[msbee]

Derek
If you think this will track mainly to the west, then are you thinking that it would cut through maybe the central Caribbean islands rather than the northern?
Barbara

[Aric Dunn]

this is a great pass ... clearly showing the banding... wellthe one extending NE is clear anyway

[RL3AO]

there is a possibility this could hit Florida, if it develops, correct?

Any thing is possible. It could it Belieze, Mexico, Texas, Central Gulf Coast, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, the NE US, Cuba, the islands, PR, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, or it could be a fish storm.

[artist]

thanks Brent. With the fronts that are beginning to drop down are the getting into the gulf yet?

[wjs3]

Will this storm go more north than it is now?

there is a possibility this could hit Florida, if it develops, correct?

IF it develops, yes it could hit Florida. Or the Carolinas, or mexico, or anywhere. We are way, way, way too far away to start talking track on a system that doesn't even have a center.

And...

What storm? There is just a cluster of thunderstorms right now. Wait for a real center to form, let the models initialize it well and give it time, let recon get out there IF a storm forms...then we can start talking about north or south or whatever.

WJS3

[Derek Ortt]

very too soon to say where this makes landfall

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFDL text:

126 - 15.4 - 53.0 - 277./12.0

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 18Z GFS with a Category 7 hitting Corpus Christi is a little too close for cmfort after spending almost $30k upgrading the house in suburban Harris County the last two weeks.





/Yes, I know there is no Cat 7. Dramatic license.

[Downdraft]

Not wanting to splash water on anyone's predictions of a U.S. landfall but I'd remind folks it's a long ways away and the eastern Caribbean has been the graveyard of many a hurricane. It is way to soon to be predicting any kind of U.S. landfall with this system. Development is obvious and so is the track for a few days but guesses won't go from wild to educated till next week sometime at the earliest.

[Robjohn53]

First Wxman97 now Derek there is alot to be conserned about now i have fallowed both along time and when they say jump i am jumping caount on it.

[wjs3]

very too soon to say where this makes landfall

Derek, Sorry,but with all due respect, where what makes landfall? I think this is going to develop, but know that until the models get a decent initialization and until something actually forms, this is pure speculation.

WJS3

[wxman57]

First Wxman97 now Derek there is alot to be conserned about now i have fallowed both along time and when they say jump i am jumping count on it.

That's "57", I'm older than 10 years old.

From the looks of it now, I think it's highly unlikely the NHC would call it a TD in the near future. Certainly, not overnight. They'll want to take a good long look at it on visible imagery tomorrow, wait for the morning QS, make sure the convection isn't fading, and be relatively confident of continued development. That might not come until Monday. Could be tomorrow afternoon, maybe. But I think development chances are in the 70% range, and if it does develop then hurricane strength is quite likely. I agree with Derek that the eastern Caribbean will very likely be threatened late in the week. Threatened doesn't necessarily mean hit, just threatened to be hit. If it develops quickly and becomes a strong TS or Hurricane early, then there is a chance it'll miss the Caribbean and it could well recurve. The ridge north of it may have a few weaknesses west of 50W-60W. Too soon to tell. Ask me in 3-4 days.

I think it's safe to say that I won't have many more days off until mid October.

[Derek Ortt]

not speculation at all


don't need a center to look at the large scale steering patterns. Only chance of this not at least posing a significant threat to land is for it to not develop

[Sambucol]

just how big a storm are the models showing if this thing develops into a hurricane?

[ConvergenceZone]

First Wxman97 now Derek there is alot to be conserned about now i have fallowed both along time and when they say jump i am jumping count on it.

That's "57", I'm older than 10 years old.

From the looks of it now, I think it's highly unlikely the NHC would call it a TD in the near future. Certainly, not overnight. They'll want to take a good long look at it on visible imagery tomorrow, wait for the morning QS, make sure the convection isn't fading, and be relatively confident of continued development. That might not come until Monday. Could be tomorrow afternoon, maybe. But I think development chances are in the 70% range, and if it does develop then hurricane strength is quite likely. I agree with Derek that the eastern Caribbean will very likely be threatened late in the week. Threatened doesn't necessarily mean hit, just threatened to be hit. If it develops quickly and becomes a strong TS or Hurricane early, then there is a chance it'll miss the Caribbean and it could well recurve. The ridge north of it may have a few weaknesses west of 50W-60W. Too soon to tell. Ask me in 3-4 days.

I think it's safe to say that I won't have many more days off until mid October.

that's a good point WXMAN, if we want to hope for a recurve out to sea, then we need to hope for quick strengthening, the sooner it becomes a TD, the sooner it will become a tropical storm/hurricane and the greater chance of a recurve out to sea....Very slow strengthening on the otherhand would not be good news, and because of this Let's hope it becomes a depression sometime tomorrow, as opposed to later....