Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

[RL3AO]

Buoy 13001

[wjs3]

not speculation at all


don't need a center to look at the large scale steering patterns. Only chance of this not at least posing a significant threat to land is for it to not develop

I probably agree with you...but really, this is, what, 5-7 days away from the islands?

And, what land? The islands? Florida? mexico? The Gulf? Carolinas? People are getting way too deterministic way too soon. Sorry, but we have to wait. Yes, steering currents suggest a W/WNW path for a long time, but as you know, the difference on 1 degree in where the center forms can be EVERYTHING in terms of the eventual track.

WJS3

[Cyclenall]

I always noticed with these types of systems, 80% of the posts are about track and final landfall and the other 20% are about strength. Same with Wilma, which is strange considering she was the strongest hurricane ever to form in the Atlantic at least since records began.

[Derek Ortt]

I dont think in this case a 1 degree difference matters, because the large scale flow produces the same track at 12 or 13N in this case.

Storms forming in the Carib can be a totally different issue though, the same with the EPAC where we have the cold water issue

[wjs3]

First Wxman97 now Derek there is alot to be conserned about now i have fallowed both along time and when they say jump i am jumping count on it.

That's "57", I'm older than 10 years old.

From the looks of it now, I think it's highly unlikely the NHC would call it a TD in the near future. Certainly, not overnight. They'll want to take a good long look at it on visible imagery tomorrow, wait for the morning QS, make sure the convection isn't fading, and be relatively confident of continued development. That might not come until Monday. Could be tomorrow afternoon, maybe. But I think development chances are in the 70% range, and if it does develop then hurricane strength is quite likely. I agree with Derek that the eastern Caribbean will very likely be threatened late in the week. Threatened doesn't necessarily mean hit, just threatened to be hit. If it develops quickly and becomes a strong TS or Hurricane early, then there is a chance it'll miss the Caribbean and it could well recurve. The ridge north of it may have a few weaknesses west of 50W-60W. Too soon to tell. Ask me in 3-4 days.

I think it's safe to say that I won't have many more days off until mid October.

Hey Wxman57--

Check out the "got a question" forum when you have a sec. A question you asked to be split off there has gotten a few responses and you should weigh in.

WJS3

[windstorm99]

NHC-8:05PM Discussion

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W S OF
20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N20W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 20W-24W.

[wjs3]

I dont think in this case a 1 degree difference matters, because the large scale flow produces the same track at 12 or 13N in this case.

Storms forming in the Carib can be a totally different issue though, the same with the EPAC where we have the cold water issue

Fair enough, Derek--

I don't think the models do well on the long range synoptics as a rule, so feel uncomfortable this far out, especially over the open ocean where the obs are so sparse. So I do think ti matters where the center forms and how the synoptics evolve. I happen to agree that an impact to somewhere is a likely outcome here. I just don't know where yet and will not say so until we get closer.

WJS3

[storms in NC]

First Wxman97 now Derek there is alot to be conserned about now i have fallowed both along time and when they say jump i am jumping count on it.

That's "57", I'm older than 10 years old.

From the looks of it now, I think it's highly unlikely the NHC would call it a TD in the near future. Certainly, not overnight. They'll want to take a good long look at it on visible imagery tomorrow, wait for the morning QS, make sure the convection isn't fading, and be relatively confident of continued development. That might not come until Monday. Could be tomorrow afternoon, maybe. But I think development chances are in the 70% range, and if it does develop then hurricane strength is quite likely. I agree with Derek that the eastern Caribbean will very likely be threatened late in the week. Threatened doesn't necessarily mean hit, just threatened to be hit. If it develops quickly and becomes a strong TS or Hurricane early, then there is a chance it'll miss the Caribbean and it could well recurve. The ridge north of it may have a few weaknesses west of 50W-60W. Too soon to tell. Ask me in 3-4 days.

I think it's safe to say that I won't have many more days off until mid October.

Let me ask some thing here Plaese. This is going 15-20 MPH right? Wouldn't it have to slow down to be able to hold thing together? I would think it would have to slow down some to build up to hurricane winds. Or it could out run itself going 20MPH. Am I worng?

[HollynLA]

not speculation at all


don't need a center to look at the large scale steering patterns. Only chance of this not at least posing a significant threat to land is for it to not develop

I probably agree with you...but really, this is, what, 5-7 days away from the islands?

And, what land? The islands? Florida? mexico? The Gulf? Carolinas? People are getting way too deterministic way too soon. Sorry, but we have to wait. Yes, steering currents suggest a W/WNW path for a long time, but as you know, the difference on 1 degree in where the center forms can be EVERYTHING in terms of the eventual track.

WJS3

The system is being discussed, no one is trying to pinpoint any landfall, just discussing various possibilities and models. There is certainly nothing wrong with that. No one is freaking out or being deterministic, just discussing it which is what this board is for.

[Brent]

First Wxman97 now Derek there is alot to be conserned about now i have fallowed both along time and when they say jump i am jumping count on it.

That's "57", I'm older than 10 years old.

From the looks of it now, I think it's highly unlikely the NHC would call it a TD in the near future. Certainly, not overnight. They'll want to take a good long look at it on visible imagery tomorrow, wait for the morning QS, make sure the convection isn't fading, and be relatively confident of continued development. That might not come until Monday. Could be tomorrow afternoon, maybe. But I think development chances are in the 70% range, and if it does develop then hurricane strength is quite likely. I agree with Derek that the eastern Caribbean will very likely be threatened late in the week. Threatened doesn't necessarily mean hit, just threatened to be hit. If it develops quickly and becomes a strong TS or Hurricane early, then there is a chance it'll miss the Caribbean and it could well recurve. The ridge north of it may have a few weaknesses west of 50W-60W. Too soon to tell. Ask me in 3-4 days.

I think it's safe to say that I won't have many more days off until mid October.

Let me ask some thing here Plaese. This is going 15-20 MPH right? Wouldn't it have to slow down to be able to hold thing together? I would think it would have to slow down some to build up to hurricane winds. Or it could out run itself going 20MPH. Am I worng?

Just about every CV storm moves at 15-20. Ivan was moving at 20+ for a long time(til it got into the Caribbean)... this is normal.

[robbielyn]

Will this storm go more north than it is now?

there is a possibility this could hit Florida, if it develops, correct?

IF it develops, yes it could hit Florida. Or the Carolinas, or mexico, or anywhere. We are way, way, way too far away to start talking track on a system that doesn't even have a center.

And...

What storm? There is just a cluster of thunderstorms right now. Wait for a real center to form, let the models initialize it well and give it time, let recon get out there IF a storm forms...then we can start talking about north or south or whatever.

WJS3

Let me clarify why I ask if it will go more north. Early on the season if waves coming off the african coast are below or at a certain latitude it is not coming toward us. But if it gets above a certain latitude then it will track towards our region where it could possibly affect the US. So I was just wondering at 10 degree latitude now, is it going to go north enough to has the US in it's possible sights?

[wjs3]

not speculation at all


don't need a center to look at the large scale steering patterns. Only chance of this not at least posing a significant threat to land is for it to not develop

I probably agree with you...but really, this is, what, 5-7 days away from the islands?

And, what land? The islands? Florida? mexico? The Gulf? Carolinas? People are getting way too deterministic way too soon. Sorry, but we have to wait. Yes, steering currents suggest a W/WNW path for a long time, but as you know, the difference on 1 degree in where the center forms can be EVERYTHING in terms of the eventual track.

WJS3

The system is being discussed, no one is trying to pinpoint any landfall, just discussing various possibilities and models. There is certainly nothing wrong with that. No one is freaking out or being deterministic, just discussing it which is what this board is for.

Holly, give me a break, OK? Don't play post police on me. That's all I'm doing too, is discussing. And you are incorrect, people are being deterministic when they are calling for landfall in particular places for a system that does not even exist yet 7 days or more from now. They are welcome to do that, but I am also welcome to say that based on my experience, that's sometimes not a smart thing to do.

Thanks

WJS3

[Weatherfreak14]

Its more factors than that, if a wave does form into a storm very fast at a higher latitude it has a greater chance of recurving but not always, dpends on the Bermuda high and other systems.

[cycloneye]

The latest 23:45 image from LSU.Convection is hanging on.

[wjs3]

Will this storm go more north than it is now?

there is a possibility this could hit Florida, if it develops, correct?

IF it develops, yes it could hit Florida. Or the Carolinas, or mexico, or anywhere. We are way, way, way too far away to start talking track on a system that doesn't even have a center.

And...

What storm? There is just a cluster of thunderstorms right now. Wait for a real center to form, let the models initialize it well and give it time, let recon get out there IF a storm forms...then we can start talking about north or south or whatever.

WJS3

Let me clarify why I ask if it will go more north. Early on the season if waves coming off the african coast are below or at a certain latitude it is not coming toward us. But if it gets above a certain latitude then it will track towards our region where it could possibly affect the US. So I was just wondering at 10 degree latitude now, is it going to go north enough to has the US in it's possible sights?

Robbielyn:

Thereis no magic rule for "if it comes out below a certain latitude, it will threaten the US" Nor any "if it comes out above a certain latitude it will not." There is an element that as a TC get farther north, it is more likely to "feel" the westerlies and that can mean shear and (possibly) recurvature. The synopticshere don't support recurvature IF models validate and IF the system forms as expected.

Hope this helps.

WJS3

[HouTXmetro]

Do we have any Model plots for this system yet? Where can I find them?

[windstorm99]

The GFDL really intensifys 90L and takes on a more northern trajectory meaning WNW towards the northern islands.

[windstorm99]

Do we have any Model plots for this system yet? Where can I find them?

[CrazyC83]

TD4 at 11pm?

[Cyclone1]

TD4 at 11pm?

Nah, maybe tomorrow at 5pm or 11pm.