Global Models Thread for 90L

[Javlin]

Oh you have too laugh at the CMC it's Northerly component seems derived from the the devolpment of a system over land that in turn affects the ridge.It is really wild how most of the models are really bullish on 90L.It should prove to be an interesting week coming up,all stay safe should something come about.

[Sanibel]

Interesting. CMC develops that disturbed area in the Caribbean. Lingers it over Florida and takes it into Georgia. This breaks the west part of the Atlantic ridge and brings 90L further north in track above the Antilles.

A mild, rainy TS over us would really solve our drought.

[windycity]

The HRWF has been fairly consistant with its track, it must see the ridge. However, its just pretty remarkable that almost every model had this last week. Therefore, i put more stock in what they are seeing. That said, what are the chances of the ridge breaking down allowing for a fish?

[Wx_Warrior]

Yes indeed. This is going to be a roller coaster of a ride if I have ever seen one!

(TEXAS CYCLONE-my favorite before they tore down Astroword)

[Javlin]

Yea the thing starts N of Cuba and intesifies over land;unless Fl has turned into a warm swamp ?

[SouthFloridawx]

Interesting. CMC develops that disturbed area in the Caribbean. Lingers it over Florida and takes it into Georgia. This breaks the west part of the Atlantic ridge and brings 90L further north in track above the Antilles.

A mild, rainy TS over us would really solve our drought.

I don't think that it would cause that much of a weakness to affect the ridge.

[SouthFloridawx]

Cyclone Phase Page, Analysis of 90L, 18Z Model Runs
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/compare/07081118/M19.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

[wx247]

Question... how accurate are these initial model runs since there isn't necessarily a defined center?

[Aric Dunn]

Question... how accurate are these initial model runs since there isn't necessarily a defined center?

not very much at all .. just gives you good idea

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS is rolling in.

Hour 12 = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif

~1008mbs.

[Extremeweatherguy]

24 hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Can you post 500 with those? Thanks

[chadtm80]

Can you post 500 with those? Thanks

Just a quick note.. All you need to do is take the regular links they post for the gfs and at the end of the link where the "ten" is, just replace it with "500" and that will give you the 500 for that specific run

[SCUBAdude]

Just curious, what is the importance of the 500mb winds in regards to the storm. Is it shear or steering?
TIA,
SD.

[Extremeweatherguy]

36 hrs...

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

[chadtm80]

Can you post 500 with those? Thanks

Just a quick note.. All you need to do is take the regular links they post for the gfs and at the end of the link where the "ten" is, just replace it with "500" and that will give you the 500 for that specific run

So for example.. Main link first

Code: Select all

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_012l.gif

For the 500 take the same link and swap out the word ten at the end for the number 500

Code: Select all

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_012l.gif

[chadtm80]

Just curious, what is the importance of the 500mb winds in regards to the storm. Is it shear or steering?
TIA,
SD.

[Extremeweatherguy]

48hrs...

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

60hrs..

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif