Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

[DrewFL]

Is this a weather forum/thread? Yacking about strikes in the US right now are totally unrealistic and frankly......insensitive. Many others are in the path of anything that rolls out of the EATL before the US is ever involved.

[ronjon]

Forgive me if I strike a nerve...but A: New Orleans is still a wreck. IF** it hit there, it's not like it would cause that much more damage. Most of the property is still in ruins there or have since been torn down. B: The people that are back in the city are more than likely able to get themselves out this time as most of the less fortunate have since moved permanetly to other places. C: The city is hurricane weary. It would take even a depression seriously. D: It's only been two years since the hurricane. It would be one thing if it had been 30 years and the city be completely rebuilt.

As a disclaimer, I don't wish misfortune on N.O. AT ALL. I understand that people are trying to get there lives together there again and some already have. I pray it spares them.

I'm sorry but what a riduculous post. The hurricane will come wherever it goes. To say it's better to hit some area becuz it's already been devestated is pure
nonsense.

[HarlequinBoy]

What the models say:

CMC - Strong tropical storm, 994mb (at least), N of Leewards (also develops a separate ~982mb hurricane near the east coast of FL)

GFDL - Cat 2 hurricane, 959mb (at least), N of Leewards

GFS - Tropical storm, 999mb (at least), slowly E of Leewards

HWRF - Cat 3 hurricane, 946mb (at least), N of Leewards

NOGAPS - fails to develop

UKMET - Tropical storm, 1002mb (only shows through 48hrs)

I really appreciate this post. Thanks!

[chadtm80]

Come on everyone.... Please just talk about the storm at hand.. Before long I am going to have to just start deleting posts, and Im not going to pm you to notify. So if you have a post missing.. You are made aware now

[weatherguru18]

Forgive me if I strike a nerve...but A: New Orleans is still a wreck. IF** it hit there, it's not like it would cause that much more damage. Most of the property is still in ruins there or have since been torn down. B: The people that are back in the city are more than likely able to get themselves out this time as most of the less fortunate have since moved permanetly to other places. C: The city is hurricane weary. It would take even a depression seriously. D: It's only been two years since the hurricane. It would be one thing if it had been 30 years and the city be completely rebuilt.

As a disclaimer, I don't wish misfortune on N.O. AT ALL. I understand that people are trying to get there lives together there again and some already have. I pray it spares them.

I'm sorry but what a riduculous post. The hurricane will come wherever it goes. To say it's better to hit some area becuz it's already been devestated is pure
nonsense.

What a riduculous post? I don't think that I made any remark about it hitting them. However you'd be lieing to yourself to think that a direct hit on Houston or Miami would be better than hitting N.O...from a casualty and economic point of view.

[weatherguru18]

Come on everyone.... Please just talk about the storm at hand.. Before long I am going to have to just start deleting posts, and Im not going to pm you to notify. So if you have a post missing.. You are made aware now

Certainly.

[Wx_Warrior]

Anxiously awaiting 10:30 run....

[robbielyn]

From what you are saying it's sounds like "nothing like hitting them when they're down." They are not good no matter where they hit plain and simple. Let's hope for a fish but close enough to keep us interested.

[weatherguru18]

I apologize if it came across that way. Let's hope for a fish.

[Sanibel]

90L is losing convection. It has a good dry 'curl' of convection to its SW, but the main convection mass is drying out right on time. Could be diurnal.

The fast forward speed works in 90L's favor. That straight west low-track will keep it in warm water and moist air. The fast forward speed should transit it through the SAL airmass quickly allowing it to potentially reconvect nearer to the formation longitudes...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CUBA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AT IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[shannon]

Earlier there were a couple of posts stating that if it develops faster it has a better chance of recurving. Could someone explain this please?

[weatherguru18]

Earlier there were a couple of posts stating that if it develops faster it has a better chance of recurving. Could someone explain this please?

The stronger it gets the more likely it is to be affected by upper-level winds. It would begin to feel the tug of the Bermuda high.

[wxmann_91]

Earlier there were a couple of posts stating that if it develops faster it has a better chance of recurving. Could someone explain this please?

Beta drift. A strong storm has a tendency to move poleward. There is a weakness in the ridge in the ctrl Atlantic that would catch the storm if the storm wandered far enough north.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Latest TAFB foreast calls for a Tropical Cyclone within 48 hours:

[shannon]

Thanks weatherguru18 and wxman_91 Makes perfect sense now. I didn't want to draw my own inaccurate conclusions.

[Ptarmigan]

I expect 90L to become TD4 as early as tomorrow or by Tuesday. The earlier it develops, more likely, it will curve and become a fish. It's really too early to tell what this blob will do. The later it develops, more likely we will have to watch. They key is to keep an eye on this blob.

[ts_kakolina]

[Ptarmigan]

Beta drift. A strong storm has a tendency to move poleward. There is a weakness in the ridge in the ctrl Atlantic that would catch the storm if the storm wandered far enough north.

I remember in 2005 when TS Bret formed, if it did not develop, the wave would end up in Texas. Since the wave became Bret, it stayed further south and hit Mexico.

[SouthFloridawx]

With a system moving at 15 to 20mph westward, we'll probably see it move more quickly than depicted by the models. This may also cause it to develop a little more slowly.