Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

[Extremeweatherguy]

With a system moving at 15 to 20mph westward, we'll probably see it move more quickly than depicted by the models. This may also cause it to develop a little more slowly.

That is kind of what the 18z GFS showed. That run was faster and a bit slower at development than the 12z run.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I think recent dats suggests 90L could be classified as a TD sooner than we think - IR imagery indicates a nice structure with persistent convective "bursts". It has maintained strong convection through the course of an entire day, and recent microwave imagery (along with QuikSCAT) indicates we may see our next tropical system by tomorrow night (earliest estimate). The environment is favorable ahead of 90L, so it could maintain its organization. There is a definite closed circulation - the most recent QuikSCAT pass showed a sfc low with an uncontaminated wind barb near 30 kts. Intermittent convective bursts should continue over the next 24 hours, and the warmer heat content (less hostile mid-level environment) could help more structural organization closer to the possible LLC. What do you think?

Recent QuikSCAT pass:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBds32.png

Additionally, 90L should be moving into an environment with decreasing mid-level easterly shear - I think that trend could aid organization, too.

[StormScanWx]

CNN talked about this system seconds ago.

[cycloneye]

CNN talked about this system seconds ago.

What did they said?

[DrewFL]

The real brain freeze happens when you realize that 15-20mph doesn't mean 20mph! LOL!
There are so many variations....this system should slow to less than 10mph in 48 or so. That's usually when you see the spaghetti models start dipping south.

[Aric Dunn]

Personally, I think recent dats suggests 90L could be classified as a TD sooner than we think - IR imagery indicates a nice structure with persistent convective "bursts". It has maintained strong convection through the course of an entire day, and recent microwave imagery (along with QuikSCAT) indicates we may see our next tropical system by tomorrow night (earliest estimate). The environment is favorable ahead of 90L, so it could maintain its organization. There is a definite closed circulation - the most recent QuikSCAT pass showed a sfc low with an uncontaminated wind barb near 30 kts. Intermittent convective bursts should continue over the next 24 hours, and the warmer heat content (less hostile mid-level environment) could help more structural organization closer to the possible LLC. What do you think?

Again.. sounds about right.. not sure how you keep typing so much .. i cant type much anymore..

[StormScanWx]

CNN talked about this system seconds ago.

What did they said?

This was Live on the Newsroom program. The CNN meteorologist said a tropical depression could form, and we might have our next named system over the next few days.

[Patrick99]

Wow, the speculation with these things is really getting a bit crazy. It just hit the water and isn't even a named storm yet!

I think development will be fairly slow......I'm still quite bearish on development in the East Atlantic. I still don't think we have all the pieces of the puzzle. Low shear, perhaps, but the waters out there are still not exactly boiling, and there's still dry air to the north. Not writing the system off, but still skeptical as to any kind of fast-track development. I'll still hold to my prediction that there won't even be any E. ATL intensification into named storms this season.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow, the speculation with these things is really getting a bit crazy. It just hit the water and isn't even a named storm yet!

I think development will be fairly slow......I'm still quite bearish on development in the East Atlantic. I still don't think we have all the pieces of the puzzle. Low shear, perhaps, but the waters out there are still not exactly boiling, and there's still dry air to the north. Not writing the system off, but still skeptical as to any kind of fast-track development. I'll still hold to my prediction that there won't even be any E. ATL intensification into named storms this season.

want to talk about speculation ... thats a good one..

27 28 degree ssts are warm enough? lol dry air is way to the north...


and actually we have some easterly shear .. i think you have it backwards with this system

[Aric Dunn]

latest image

convection starting to get deeper! but is still being shear a little from the east ..

[RL3AO]

Looks like D-Max may be starting.

[DrewFL]

Aric.....that little pinhead type of a blob is not one tenth of what was there this morning. So who is getting excited. And for informational purposes....I will reference your Satellite shot for my back-up.

[CrazyC83]

What is D-Max?

[JTD]

Diurnal Maximum. The time that convection fires the most.

[DrewFL]

Diurnal Maximum. And this wave has a huge road ahead to get its sea legs in my honest thought!

[Aric Dunn]

Aric.....that little pinhead type of a blob is not one tenth of what was there this morning. So who is getting excited. And for informational purposes....I will reference your Satellite shot for my back-up.

umm yeah ok compared to this morning.. but compared to a few hours ago .. its a improvement

excited ?? well i guess someone might ? it does continue to re-fire convection so thats interesting

[shannon]

patrick99- I am trying to understand your post. Are you saying that you don't think any waves in the E. Atlantic will form into named storms?

[Aric Dunn]

Diurnal Maximum. And this wave has a huge road ahead to get its sea legs in my honest thought!

of course most systems do.. they dont just magically become hurricanes.. or look perfect ever second of everyday
but yeah long road. but will get easier starting tomorrow

[DrewFL]

We have a real long row to hoe ronight during Dmax to even get close to what was there this morning.
That's why we listen to the NHC ...and not posters on weather boards.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric.....that little pinhead type of a blob is not one tenth of what was there this morning. So who is getting excited. And for informational purposes....I will reference your Satellite shot for my back-up.

and your referencing what ? and why ? and who cares ?