Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

[Aric Dunn]

We have a real long row to hoe ronight during Dmax to even get close to what was there this morning.
That's why we listen to the NHC ...and not posters on weather boards.

I like listening to posters on weather boards.. thats why im here ? why are you here? obviously not to listen to anyone


anyway back to the tropics

[DrewFL]

Aric.....that little pinhead type of a blob is not one tenth of what was there this morning. So who is getting excited. And for informational purposes....I will reference your Satellite shot for my back-up.

and your referencing what ? and why ? and who cares ?

There you have it. I only care about development right now. And what I see ..it won't happen during the DMAX!
Maybe Sunday around 11:30 or the 2:05 we may see the NHC do something. But it really doesn't matter right now. This is no threat to any populated land areas and we have RECON standing by in St. Croix with three planes and crews that will be tasked when and if this is a threat a t 55W!

[Aric Dunn]

Aric.....that little pinhead type of a blob is not one tenth of what was there this morning. So who is getting excited. And for informational purposes....I will reference your Satellite shot for my back-up.

and your referencing what ? and why ? and who cares ?

There you have it. I only care about development right now. And what I see ..it won't happen during the DMAX!
Maybe Sunday around 11:30 or the 2:05 we may see the NHC do something. But it really doesn't matter right now. This is no threat to any populated land areas and we have RECON standing by in St. Croix with three planes and crews that will be tasked when and if this is a threat a t 55W!

thats great but a lot of people including myself are on here to watch every frame a see how they develop .. so you dont believe it will develop anytime soon thats great but dont come in here and tell everyone that its worthless to watch..

[RL3AO]

Where is the 0200z East Atlantic SSD image?

And Drew, I'm waiting for the 0200 SSD image to prove you wrong.

[Aric Dunn]

Where is the 0200z East Atlantic SSD image?

And Drew, I'm waiting for the 0200 SSD image to prove you wrong.

they have been really slow all day.. who knows

[Cookiely]

I wish the bickering would stop. Can't you PM each other if you disagree about something. Do you have to post every little tidbit. Please I can't stand the thought that when we need the board the most, it will crash. Things are going to get busy this week, if you love this board please think before posting. I don't want the board to crash when some of us will be needing the info the most.

[DrewFL]

Have fun proving me wrong guys. I never knew I was trying to be right!

[DrewFL]

I wish the bickering would stop. Can't you PM each other if you disagree about something. Do you have to post every little tidbit. Please I can't stand the thought that when we need the board the most, it will crash. Things are going to get busy this week, if you love this board please think before posting. I don't want the board to crash when some of us will be needing the info the most.

That would be the best way I'm sure. But Aric just keeps running on like a long train running.

[MiamiensisWx]

Since there is some controversy, I want to clear some issues. I definitely trust the TPC, and DrewFL makes a valid point - people's excitement and interest over a system can (understandably) overrule rational judgement. I do think this site is an excellent source of information - I have learned an immense amount of information and outstanding tips from the talented interesting people (professional, amateur, and all backgrounds) on these forums. I think you should ignore posts if they disrupt your thoughts or decisions. Most people probably do not intend to deliberately offer frivolous information. We can learn from everyone on this site.

I was going conservative in my original post (tomorrow night is my earliest estimate) - I simply believe (based on data and my personal observations) that 90L may develop sooner than some people think (albeit not as quick a pace that is indicated by some models). I do agree - convective activity is limited in aerial coverage, and this factor leads many early season easterly waves into a "death knell" when they encounter a stable air mass or shear. This system is different - the SAL has retreated northward; the 500 mbar Azores ridge is weaker; and we are gradually entering a regime that is more conducive for development. Personally, I think this wave has sustained a persistent convective "burst" close to the sfc low for more than 24 hours. This trend could indicate more rapid development, especially because of the lower easterly shear ahead of the system.

Here are some good links:

Saharan Air Layer analysis

Oceanic heat content

This system has maintained convection and structural organization within a hostile mid-level environment (i.e. stratocumulus and SAL). Additionally, the SAL layer has weakened, and the system is entering warmer heat content (i.e. more unstable air mass). This factor could aid convective sustenance, and the well-defined sfc low depicted by QuikSCAT seems to offer some support for this hypothesis. Obviously, these waves typically develop slowly, and I don't support the idea of extremely rapid consolidation and cyclogenesis. I do think there are some positive signs for development - current trends indicate the possibility it could occur within 36 to 48 hours. I think this wave has passed the "critical point" for its survival.

By the way, I enjoy your posts!

[ConvergenceZone]

The thing is, it's much more forboding if it DOESN'T develop right now as another metorologist on here stated. All that means is a continued movement westward as opposed to having it be pulled North. For this thing to even have a shot at curving out to sea, we need rapid development over the next 48 hours, doesn't look like that's going to happen though...

Based on current representation, I'd say it probably won't hit tropical depression status until sometime on Monday(or perhaps very late Sunday Night), then tropical storm strength sometime during the day on Tuesday.

[Aric Dunn]

Since there is some controversy, I want to clear some issues. I definitely trust the TPC, and DrewFL makes a valid point - people's excitement and interest over a system can (understandably) overrule rational judgement. I do think this site is an excellent source of information - I have learned an immense amount of information and outstanding tips from the talented interesting people (professional, amateur, and all backgrounds) on these forums. I think you should ignore posts if they disrupt your thoughts or decisions. Most people probably do not intend to deliberately offer frivolous information. We can learn from everyone on this site.

I was going conservative in my original post (tomorrow night is my earliest estimate) - I simply believe (based on data and my personal observations) that 90L may develop sooner than some people think (albeit not as quick a pace that is indicated by some models). I do agree - convective activity is limited in aerial coverage, and this factor leads many early season easterly waves into a "death knell" when they encounter a stable air mass or sheat. This system is different - the SAL has retreated northward; the 500 mbar Azores ridge is weaker; and we are gradually entering a regime that is more conducive for development. Personally, I think this wave has sustained a persistent convective "burst" close to the sfc low for more than 24 hours. This trend could indicate more rapid development, especially because of the lower easterly shear ahead of the system.

Here are some good links:

Saharan Air Layer analysis

Oceanic heat content

This system has maintained convection and structural organization within a hostile mid-level environment (i.e. stratocumulus and SAL). Additionally, the SAL layer has weakened, and the system is entering warmer heat content (i.e. more unstable air mass). This factor could aid convective sustenance, and the well-defined sfc low depicted by QuikSCAT seems to offer some support for this hypothesis. Obviously, these waves typically develop slowly, and I don't support the idea of extremely rapid consolidation and cyclogenesis. I do think there are some positive signs for development - current trends indicate the possibility it could occur within 36 to 48 hours.

By the way, I enjoy your posts!

Im starting to enjoy your posts more and more.. seriously how are you still typing that much ..my fingers hurt
and again you hit the nail on the head great analysis

[Aric Dunn]

The thing is, it's much more forboding if it DOESN'T develop right now as another metorologist on here stated. All that means is a continued movement westward as opposed to having it be pulled North. For this thing to even have a shot at curving out to sea, we need rapid development over the next 48 hours, doesn't look like that's going to happen though...

Based on current representation, I'd say it probably won't hit tropical depression status until sometime on Monday(or perhaps very late Sunday Night), then tropical storm strength sometime during the day on Tuesday.

Correct Deeper systems are steered more by the mid and upper layers which right now would be a more WNW track.
but shallow systems or weak systems are steered by the lower levels hence our west motion with 90L.

[DrewFL]

Correct Deeper systems are steered more by the mid and upper layers which right now would be a more WNW track.
but shallow systems or weak systems are steered by the lower levels hence our west motion with 90L.

There's a Bingo!

So, since there is no confirmed closed surface low and not enough convection to cause a .25 inches of rain. What's the big deal?

[Aric Dunn]

Correct Deeper systems are steered more by the mid and upper layers which right now would be a more WNW track.
but shallow systems or weak systems are steered by the lower levels hence our west motion with 90L.

There's a Bingo!

So, since there is no confirmed closed surface low and not enough convection to cause a .25 inches of rain. What's the big deal?

we already went over this!!! you may not think its a big deal but other like to and enjoy watching every step of the way to see how they develop or not... so drop it we all know you dont think highly of it so stop bringing it up geezz..

hmm.. well we have quickscat that shows a closed low.. thats all the NHC would ever have to go by as well surface obs that far out and microwave data .

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Checkout the well defined circulation the QuikScat is presenting

[ConvergenceZone]

Correct Deeper systems are steered more by the mid and upper layers which right now would be a more WNW track.
but shallow systems or weak systems are steered by the lower levels hence our west motion with 90L.

There's a Bingo!

So, since there is no confirmed closed surface low and not enough convection to cause a .25 inches of rain. What's the big deal?

DrewFl, I don't think anyone is saying it's a big deal right now. I don't think anyone expects it to be a big deal right now. However, when you have the METS on the board agreeing on development(which doesnt happen very often), then you have to take notice, and realize we have something seriously brewing here..... but again, nobody expects development tonight. It's doing exactly what systems suppose to be doing that far east...

[DrewFL]

NHC says this:


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

[CajunMama]

This bickering will stop or there will be quite a few with suspensions. OK?

[Aric Dunn]

Latest Quickscat



shows closed circulation still

[cycloneye]

I think that chad,one of the administrators said something about the bickering.