Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

[Aric Dunn]

here is the most recent close up


and here is 2 hrs ago

[MWatkins]

All that GFS guidance will change....pretty drastically overnight. The UKMET seems to have the best grasp on whatever there is to grasp.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif

Drew,

Why is the 12z UKMET your favored solution right now?

I would encourage you to look at trends and not specific solutions. The models together tell a compelling story. Individually, especially on a system that doesn't have a number yet, they are relatively sporadic.

The last 3 runs of the UKMET have been much further north and slower....

MW

[DrewFL]

The BLUE LINE....that's the UK!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Everything goes into the Gulf guys! You should know that by now. And all of them will hit Texas this season!
Does that make you feel better? Forget all the Island friends and God forbid....Florida! It's all about the Gulf.

what are you even talking about now? No one said this was for sure coming to TX or the GOM..and I have repeatedly said that those in the Leewards are the ones that need to worry about this first. There is really no need to get all upset. Let's get back on topic now..

[Ed Mahmoud]

Everything goes into the Gulf guys! You should know that by now. And all of them will hit Texas this season!
Does that make you feel better? Forget all the Island friends and God forbid....Florida! It's all about the Gulf.

Who said this will hit Texas? Anyone?


Have you been drinking?

[cycloneye]

Please get back on topic.

Already John,chad said earlier in this thread about stopping this bickering or he would start to deleite posts.

[RL3AO]

The BLUE LINE....that's the UK!

We know but why does it have the best grasp on this wave?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This system could pose a threat to the islands. With the rigde as it is it could
impact or strike the islands as possibly a hurricane. I would encourage anyone
living near the islands or on them to watch this very very closely, as it does not
appear that this system will recurve.

[fci]

He can't respond....there is no data suggesting that this goes N of the islands. His prediction is purely hope based.

Regarding the wave, Ill be interested to see when the NHC declares this, because they have sufficient evidence to name it a TD right now if they wanted to.

Most of the model runs I have seen the past few days, with the exception of the last one or two did show this going north of, or over; The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Hey, not a "hope based" comment as I want NO PART of a Hurricane here!!
I do not wish this or any other Hurricane on anyone but if this is one of those "Tx vs. FL" battles; you can "win" anytime you want. In fact, you can win EVERYTIME!!!!!

[MississippiHurricane]

Drew: this thing is still far out there and anything can happen. If you have been watching the tropics in the past you could see this. NOW.....can we pretty please with sugar and cream on top drop this like its hot and get back on topic?

[Sanibel]

Aric's last frame looks like intensification symmetry from a convective burst. (Sheesh, this looks bad)

[Normandy]

^Well, yes they have shown the storm passing north of the islands, albeit a VERY close pass, and now in consecutive runs they are sending it into the Carribean.

I just don't feel it will get strong enough to move too far poleward with the steering currents in place. The only chance I see it has of completely missing the islands is if it A)Doesnt develop [not likely], and B) bombs into a cat5 right now [which would perhaps allow it to gain some lattitude, but aint happenin].

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yea this could get really intense it's really got
bigtime convection. Scary stuff unfolding...

[hsvwx]

He can't respond....there is no data suggesting that this goes N of the islands. His prediction is purely hope based.

Regarding the wave, Ill be interested to see when the NHC declares this, because they have sufficient evidence to name it a TD right now if they wanted to.

Most of the model runs I have seen the past few days, with the exception of the last one or two did show this going north of, or over; The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Hey, not a "hope based" comment as I want NO PART of a Hurricane here!!
I do not wish this or any other Hurricane on anyone but if this is one of those "Tx vs. FL" battles; you can "win" anytime you want. In fact, you can win EVERYTIME!!!!!

This is a good quote. Recent trends have been for a further south solution. However, whose to say that the trend shifts back north over the next day or two. Nothing is set in stone beyond maybe, and this is a big maybe, the next 24 hours.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I, for one, will be glad when this reaches 30ºW and the SSD web site has 30 minute updates that post about 40 minutes after the fact. Can tell a lot more from a loop w/ 2 frames per hour.

About a daya way, the Western edge is staring to show up on the SSD animation.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,lets continue to discuss 90L and forget about one member that wants to cause trouble and will no longer be here.

[Extremeweatherguy]

One reason the past model runs were further north was that they were showing faster development right off the coast of Africa. Since it has not quite happened like that, the runs are now shifting further south in the short-term. A path to the Caribbean looks pretty likely to me ATM since there is such a large model consensus showing that track.

[Aric Dunn]

latest as of 24 minutes ago

looks like more convection starting re-fire. I would not be surprised to see it TD tomorrow




2hrs ago

[Sanibel]

Hitting the sack. We'll see what it looks like tomorrow. 'Night all...

[fci]

^Well, yes they have shown the storm passing north of the islands, albeit a VERY close pass, and now in consecutive runs they are sending it into the Carribean.

I just don't feel it will get strong enough to move too far poleward with the steering currents in place. The only chance I see it has of completely missing the islands is if it A)Doesnt develop [not likely], and B) bombs into a cat5 right now [which would perhaps allow it to gain some lattitude, but aint happenin].

Can't argue with you there Normandy.

Lots of time and lots of things can happen between now and when it either crosses in the Carib. or goes north of it. I suspect we will know the answer in a 3-4 days and about 10,000 posts from now and that the models will have it in many different locations between now and then!!