Global Models for 90L

[Aric Dunn]

Im going to disregard the Ukmet it has the system initialized way way to far west

at about 27 to 28 west

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Good idea!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Any guesses on where the 0Z Euro will bring it?

[Aric Dunn]

Any guesses on where the 0Z Euro will bring it?

i would imagine not to different from than the last one. its been pretty consistent with the Se bahamas

but not staying up to wait for that one come in to late I'll back in the morning

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps still not showing anything
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[wxmann_91]

FWIW... (not much if anything)

[Aric Dunn]

FWIW... (not much if anything)

did not know the cmc went that far out .. whats the link

[wxmann_91]

did not know the cmc went that far out .. whats the link

http://meteocentre.com/models/modelsgem_e.html#GLB00

[Scorpion]

The 00z Euro implies more of an east coast threat

[wxmann_91]

The 00z Euro implies more of an east coast threat

No way any storm's going to plow thru a 594dm ridge. Euro suggests FL then GOM, extrapolating beyond 240 hr. (dumb to extrapolate, but given the strength of steering, this run is likely too slow)

[USTropics]

First time poster. My thoughts are on my site:
http://www.ustropics.net

[weatherwindow]

link for the euro?......thanks, rich

[Chris_in_Tampa]

ECMWF:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... c_plots!!/

[Aquawind]

GFS is thinking thursday or early friday morning for Island impacts..

[Aquawind]

06Z is similar to the 00Z as it should be. It will be interesting to see if the 12Z shifts back north..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

[ronjon]

06Z is similar to the 00Z as it should be. It will be interesting to see if the 12Z shifts back north..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

Big differences now between the Euro & CMC versus the GFS long term. The GFS is much faster and builds in a much stronger ridge holding the cyclone to the south in the caribbean. The other two long range models (10 day runs) show either the SE GOM (CMC) or off the SE coast of FL in the 10 day time frame (Euro). Right now about a 500 mile difference in latitude. Really way too early to say but the Euro is superior with the medium range upper air patterns and its showing a large upper air ridge over the SE US and western Atlantic which will prevent any recurvature and possibly spare the east coast of the US from this cyclone. This SE ridge is not good for south or central FL, the greater antilles, or any GOM residents at this time. Stay tuned.

[wzrgirl1]

First time poster. My thoughts are on my site:
http://www.ustropics.net

thanks for sharing....great site!!

[cycloneye]

280
WHXX04 KWBC 121205
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.0 22.1 280./13.0
6 12.8 23.3 305./14.7
12 12.6 26.1 266./27.5
18 12.7 27.9 272./17.5
24 12.6 30.0 267./21.1
30 12.2 32.4 261./23.1
36 12.2 33.9 268./14.6
42 12.2 35.4 270./14.6
48 12.1 37.3 268./19.1
54 12.2 38.9 273./15.2
60 12.6 40.5 282./16.3
66 12.7 42.3 273./16.8
72 13.0 44.0 280./17.3
78 13.5 45.8 286./17.6
84 13.9 47.8 282./19.9
90 14.3 49.5 282./17.6
96 14.8 51.3 285./18.0
102 15.2 53.1 283./17.2
108 15.4 54.8 279./16.6
114 15.7 56.2 279./14.1
120 15.8 57.8 276./15.8
126 16.0 59.3 277./13.

6z GFDL.

[vaffie]

Now that the GFDL is properly initialized, it is also taking it into the Caribbean.

[bvigal]

Has it really slowing down there at 60W. I've a feeling, Luis, this will be like so many others, we won't know which island is going to be hit until it happens. For those on the mainland, these islands are small. It's like trying to predict what COUNTY it will hit in U.S. - one last-minute wobble can make a big difference.