Invest 95W in WPAC

[Coredesat]

The WPAC continues to crank out invests:





LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 18N 136E ALMOST STATIONARY.

This, too, seems to be associated with the monsoon trough.

[Typhoon Hunter]

OK, JTWC have issued a TCFA for this system. However first I'd like to draw people's attention to the ECMWF model run. This has consistently been calling for a monster to form and head west. At the moment they are calling for landfall on central Taiwan as a category 20 storm!!



Here's the JTWC TCFA text:

WTPN21 PGTW 112000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 18.4N 135.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 111730Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 135.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6N
136.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 135.3E, APPROXIMATELY 630 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS SUSTAINED CONVECTION NEAR A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN THE 110858Z QUIKSCAT PASS.
EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES (110907Z SSMI AND 111113Z SSMIS)
VERIFY CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TOWARD AN ORGANIZING LLCC.
THE DISTURBANCE LIES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REORIENTS WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. GIVEN THE IMPROVED LLCC, SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE,
AND INCREASING SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 122000Z.
//

[Chacor]

ECMWF were really spot on with Usagi and did fairly okay with Pabuk...

[RL3AO]

I heard earlier that the EMCWF was going nuts with a system in the WPac but I didn't know which one.

[Coredesat]

Full TD from JMA, and is on FNMOC as 09W.NONAME:

WTPQ20 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 17.3N 135.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 17.1N 135.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

134
TPPN10 PGTW 120615

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE W OF GUAM

B. 12/0530Z

C. 17.4N/2

D. 135.7E/6

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (12/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAP OF .45 ON
LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE.
DBO DT.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Things are starting to come together. I'm in Beijing until Wednesday so I'm pleased to see this is stationary at the moment. ECMWF latest run still going for a massive hit on Taiwan.

[Chacor]

JTWC have issued first warning. I'll start a new thread in the active storms forum.

[Chacor]

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