Global Models for 90L

[Emmett_Brown]

If I may address this question to the pro mets or experienced amateurs who are familiar with Numerical Weather Prediction:

One of the challenges of model forecasts over the ocean must be the lack of data to input for the models. Our much loved disturbance, 90L is now passing an automated station in the far eastern Atlantic. How long will it take for the observational data from this station to be ingested into the models, and would you expect observations from a single station such as this to significantly affect future model runs?

Thanks in advance for your reply.

Dr. Emmett Brown

[flwxwatcher]

Differences indeed in the Globals. which can be expected in a still developing system. The EURO is slower ,weaker and further North. In a few days once this system becomes better organized I think the models will come more into agreement. Time will tell.

[flwxwatcher]

FWIW... (not much if anything)

did not know the cmc went that far out .. whats the link

You can also get the Canadian Ensemble forecasts here..

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html

[windycity]

With the euro taking it on a more northen path,it must sence a slight weakness in the ridge. Plus, is our yucatan disturbance going to alter the path of future Dean? Just a thought. Remember, the models developed both. Well, here it is. To think weeks ago all i saw was season over. PLEASE......

[flwxwatcher]

EURO 500 MB at 240 would steer system into Florida .Still 10 days away, alot can change.

[miamicanes177]

06Z GFDL has a cat 3 nearing the leewards

[Steve]

>>To think weeks ago all i saw was season over. PLEASE

How could that have been when it hadn't even really started yet? People will learn to stop bagging on June, July or early August. There is rarely much going on in that 75 day period. And if it doesn't start, it can't possibly be over except in maybe 1 in 100 seasons. That was not going to be the case for 2007 in any way, shape or form. IMHO, by the time we lick the wounds and add up the damages, 2007 will be more similar to 2002, 2004 and 2005 than a dud season.

Steve

[flwxwatcher]

>>To think weeks ago all i saw was season over. PLEASE

How could that have been when it hadn't even really started yet? People will learn to stop bagging on June, July or early August. There is rarely much going on in that 75 day period. And if it doesn't start, it can't possibly be over except in maybe 1 in 100 seasons. That was not going to be the case for 2007 in any way, shape or form. IMHO, by the time we lick the wounds and add up the damages, 2007 will be more similar to 2002, 2004 and 2005 than a dud season.

Steve

Steve agree with you on that statement. Things are starting to heat up just like climo says they should. Another nice looking wave behind 90 L over Africa also. It should be an interesting next few months

[Steve]

>>Steve agree with you on that statement. Things are starting to heat up just like climo says they should.

It's science. Everyone should read fl's post and understand that we're at the starting gates.

Steve

[miamicanes177]

06Z HWRF 940mb

[cycloneye]

06z HWRF Animation

A scary animation for the Eastern Caribbean islands.

[Frank P]

Steve, also hard for me to understand how anyone can write a season off before the season really is expected to get cranking... sure every now and then we get one or two storms early, but for those who have been tracking storms for a long time know that you really don't see that much action until mid to late Aug and onwards after that...

fortunately we are not going to have seasons like 2004 and 2005 all that often.. problem is that we've had a plethora of new folks who have develop a passion for monitoring and tracking storms in recent years and the storm2k format is an excellent way to participate in that process, however, I think that all the early on development of the recent seasons might have spoiled them a tad...

[canegrl04]

>>To think weeks ago all i saw was season over. PLEASE

How could that have been when it hadn't even really started yet? People will learn to stop bagging on June, July or early August. There is rarely much going on in that 75 day period. And if it doesn't start, it can't possibly be over except in maybe 1 in 100 seasons. That was not going to be the case for 2007 in any way, shape or form. IMHO, by the time we lick the wounds and add up the damages, 2007 will be more similar to 2002, 2004 and 2005 than a dud season.

Steve

Steve agree with you on that statement. Things are starting to heat up just like climo says they should. Another nice looking wave behind 90 L over Africa also. It should be an interesting next few months

I like the analogy given by hurricane forecasters the other day report(on CNN Headline News)"The pitcher is warming up on the mound and the batters are lining up

[vaffie]

A scary animation for the Eastern Caribbean islands.

Indeed. Very consistent with previous runs. Further south than the previous two runs and slightly slower.

18Z (126 hours)
16.1N, 58.4W.

00z (120 hours)
16.5N, 58.5W.

06Z (114 hours)
15.6N, 58.0W

[Frank P]

06z HWRF Animation

A scary animation for the Eastern Caribbean islands.

Something I'm sure the islands hope does not come to fruition... but this is the time you expect to see the Cape Verdi storms, the long trackers... Not sure if I'd starting worrying too much because things can and DO change with time, but in this case it would certainly have my attention...... I have not seen any models yet that would provide some kind of northerly component, of which I'm sure the islanders would love to see...

sidebar... seems like the setup might eventually track what ever develops towards the US... much to early and certainly premature speculation on my part but sometimes you get that feeling from the data observed to date... I started yesterday filling up gas cans, running the generator, etc.... checking evacuation plans... probably should have done it earlier but still working on my house... I just finished putting all the hurricane straps on my doggie condo under my house...

[canetracker]

sidebar... seems like the setup might eventually track what ever develops towards the US... much to early and certainly premature speculation on my part but sometimes you get that feeling from the data observed to date... I started yesterday filling up gas cans, running the generator, etc.... checking evacuation plans... probably should have done it earlier but still working on my house... I just finished putting all the hurricane straps on my doggie condo under my house...

Good idea FrankP. I completed my generator, gas can and hurricane supply set up 2 weeks ago. Everyone should prepare, not just for this storm but the season in general.

This scenario is scary for the Islands and coming very close to the BVI and Puerto Rico. I hope this scenario does not pan out.

[Dionne]

Frank.....your not alone. The new generator is no longer stored at the shop.....it's now in the utility room at home......and.....the gas cans were filled yesterday. Chainsaw is ready. Checked our small 110 A/C......it's good. Plenty of food.....heck we still have MRE's. I will be getting ALOT more bottled water sometime today. Some folks call me an alarmist......but I assure you.....I refuse to get caught with my pants down again. Memphis is our planned evac if necessary.

[Trader Ron]

06Z is similar to the 00Z as it should be. It will be interesting to see if the 12Z shifts back north..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

Looks like another feature behind 90L.

[astrosbaseball22]

this is 1130 eastren right?

[Aquawind]

06Z is similar to the 00Z as it should be. It will be interesting to see if the 12Z shifts back north..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

Looks like another feature behind 90L.

Yep, Interesting how nothing with the clarity 90L had yet though.. The GFS had this one pegged long before the exit off the coast.. But there are clearly more large waves exiting and various runs are picking up on them.

this is 1130 eastren right?.. yep