Global Models for 90L

[wxman57]

I'm not sure I see the need for 2 discussion threads on 90L. If you want to make a thread that is ONLY model data (no discussion, like the recon threads), then fine. I'm not following both threads, though.

[miamicanes177]

I was actually thinking about creating a new thread for discussing the 12Z Euro when it comes out . All kidding aside I would rather have just 1 thread as well for all the information on 90L. We don't need 2-3.

[cycloneye]

wxman57 is right.Lets concentrate all the discussions about the system and the models in the main 90L thread and leave this Global Models one for the posting of the runs.

I know 57 that it will not be easy but lets see how it goes today by doing this.

[MiamiensisWx]

The latest 0Z Euro run weakens the 500 mbar ridge. It brings the system north of the islands and out to sea - wow...

Latest Euro run

It's drastically different than the previous runs.

[windstorm99]

The latest 0Z Euro run weakens the 500 mbar ridge. It brings the system north of the islands and out to sea - wow...

Latest Euro run

It's drastically different than the previous runs.

Seems possible to me and the GFS could possibly be underestimating the strength of the high.

Ernesto comes to mind.

[Sanibel]

Latest Euro crashes an unweakened Atlantic monster into Savannah. (Told you last night I thought GFS was erring low)

Sorry Luis, didn't see your stick to GFS topic request.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFS along with most of all the other reliable models must be erring low then, because the EURO and the CMC are the furthest north. May be they are erring high? ATM, I think it is wise to stick with the large model consensus and not worry too much about each model individually. The bulk of the models bring this toward the eastern Caribbean.

BTW: The 0z EURO run is hours old now. Let's wait for the 12z and see what it says.

[x-y-no]

12z GFS initializes a 1009mb low SSW of the Cape Verdes.

[storms in NC]

I know everyone says it is normal for it to go so fast. But with it going 20 MPH I just can't see it deepen to get to a Hurricane. I know I am not a pro so that will say it all right there. But i think if it would slow down it would have time to deepen JMO which is not much.

[x-y-no]

24 hours

Moving west at a good clip ... 1008mb

[CrazyC83]

The NOGAPS is the outlier here. The others all develop this between a tropical storm with 1000mb and a Cat 3 with 940mb.

[cheezyWXguy]

24 hours

Moving west at a good clip ... 1008mb

Already initiated incorrectly, as it should have been 1006 or 1007mb. Anyway, lets just see how the GFS takes it

[x-y-no]

48 hours

Crossing 40W still moving west at a decent clip. 1006mb.

EDIT:

40 knot wind barbs on north side, 35 knot west barb on the SW side. TS

[cycloneye]

48 hours

Crossing 40W still moving west at a decent clip. 1006mb.

Jan the 6z GFDL was a little bit slower.

[x-y-no]

48 hours

Crossing 40W still moving west at a decent clip. 1006mb.

Jan the 6z GFDL was a little bit slower.

Yes. Unlike earlier runs, this one isn't wrapping the mid-level ridging around in front of it. I think that accounts for the speed difference.

[x-y-no]

66 hours

1004mb. Still pretty much due west.

Looks like it should feel the wekness ahead soon. This faster pace has got it near 50W before the trough lifts out.

[x-y-no]

96 hours

Approaching the islands

108 hours

Crossing 60W

[KFDM Meteorologist]

500 Pattern looking a tad different on this run.

[EyELeSs1]

how different KFDM??? any chance for a more northward component or that it will feel a weakness in the ridge before it gets to the islands?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Let me see how the weakness pans out over the Bahamas.