Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

[cycloneye]

The 14:45 UTC Visible Image.Looks much better as the hours go by.

[ROCK]

still carib bound.....pretty good consensus also....not good for the islands though...

[El Nino]

I think tomorrow will be a big day. I should work today to prevent all the excitation.

[skysummit]

The 12z GFS has begun rolling out.

[Aric Dunn]

Well here it comes... the first real storm of the season.

Looks nice on satellite.

here is good loop helps with the lower levels

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

[cajungal]

It definitly looks like a Caribbean/Gulf threat. After a big break, things are fixing to get rolling. And storm2k is going to be hopping with posts.

[astrosbaseball22]

It definitly looks like a Caribbean/Gulf threat. After a big break, things are fixing to get rolling. And storm2k is going to be hopping with posts.

so mexico-TX-LA-AL-MS-FL!!

[destruction92]

still carib bound.....pretty good consensus also....not good for the islands though...

I think the difference between this potential storm (named Dean) and lower latitude tracking storms (i.e. Ivan) that entered the southern reaches of the Carribean, is that it will enter the nothern part of the Carribean Sea and be more of a threat to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic instead of tracking to the Yucatan or Gulf of Mexico.

['CaneFreak]

I think everyone is underestimating the current strength of the easterly shear and the current forward momentum of this system. The circulation center is a good 100 miles east of the deepest convection right now. I would have to say that we are a good 24-36 hours from Tropical Depression status. I dont like to bash the NHC, but they seem a little bullish about the system currently. JMO

[destruction92]

so mexico=TX-LA-AL-MS-FL!![/quote]

Wait a second. Did the North American Union already occur?!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I would expect some development and
as it nears the caribbean it is likely
to intensify as heat content increases substantially
towards the caribbean and in the caribbean.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[EyELeSs1]

the ships intensity seems to be on the low side right now. The gfdl gfs etc intensifies this storm to nearly a major before it impacts the islands. I live in Antigua and have some family/friends arriving on Saturday (yikes) so any further comments on intensity will greatly be appreciated

Thank You

[cycloneye]

the ships intensity seems to be on the low side right now. The gfdl gfs etc intensifies this storm to nearly a major before it impacts the islands. I live in Antigua and have some family/friends arriving on Saturday (yikes) so any further comments on intensity will greatly be appreciated

Thank You

Great to see you after a long time my friend. Be safe and start preparations there just in case and lets hope that this goes fishing.

[Sanibel]

That form is starting to look scary.

90L has beaten back the dry SAL layer just off Africa and moistened it.

[Extremecane]

Heres heat potentiaL:

[destruction92]

Just because something enters the Carribean does not automatically make it a U.S. gulf coast threat! A lot of people seem to think this way. At least, I used to...but not anymore. Remember, Mexico and the countries making up Central America and South America touch a larger part of the Carribean Sea than U.S. land.

[Scorpion]

The wave emerging off Africa should protect 90L from any SAL intrusions

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

the ships intensity seems to be on the low side right now. The gfdl gfs etc intensifies this storm to nearly a major before it impacts the islands. I live in Antigua and have some family/friends arriving on Saturday (yikes) so any further comments on intensity will greatly be appreciated

Thank You

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Regarding intensity...Anything from category 1-3 is possible...
Oceanic heat content is high:
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

And shear is forecasted to remain favorable for development
by the TWO.