Global Models for 90L

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like the 12z will feature another caribbean bound storm.

120 hrs..

surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Two of the key factors are, as I see it:

a) How deep how quickly does future Dean get + 6 days out?

b) That system over the NW Caribbean Sea. How strong does it get by the end of the week? Does it erode the ridge enough to connect with the Trough and push future Dean out to sea, or at least turn it North?

[Extremeweatherguy]

132 hrs..

surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

[weatherguru18]

This reply goes to the person who was asking about intensity in the last thread. In regards to intensity, one needs to plan for the very worst. Remember Wilma? It went from like T.S. to Cat. 5 in some 24-36 hrs...practically overnight. The waters only get warmer from here.

[x-y-no]

132 hours

Passing south of Puerto Rico ....

Not sure why it's not reacting more to the mid-level wekness to the north. I think it's steering it too shallow. If the 500mb profile really looks like this, I think the track is further north.

144 hours

Brushing the south side of Hispaniola.

[cyclonic chronic]

Looks like the 12z will feature another caribbean bound storm.

120 hrs..

surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

looks like the cv season is starting with a bang

[KFDM Meteorologist]

132 hours

Passing south of Puerto Rico ....

Not sure why it's not reacting more to the mid-level wekness to the north. I think it's steering it too shallow. If the 500mb profile really looks like this, I think the track is further north.

[url=http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_144.shtml144 hours[/url]

Brushing the south side of Hispaniola.

I agree!!!!

[Brent]

This reply goes to the person who was asking about intensity in the last thread. In regards to intensity, one needs to plan for the very worst. Remember Wilma? It went from like T.S. to Cat. 5 in some 24-36 hrs...practically overnight. The waters only get warmer from here.

Agreed...

and please remember the intensity forecast is MUCH more difficult than track forecast. The errors(high or low) can be very large.

Anyway... ugh, I hope the heat ridge breaks down. I don't want it come here, but we need some RAIN, and if it just goes straight west into S TX or Mexico we'll remain hot and dry.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Another note on intensity:

In addition ask the people on the Northern Gulf Coast about intensity. Katrina might have weakened to a cat 3, but her surge was still cat 5 like. Simply because it didn't have enough time to diminish, due to the close proximity to land when the weakening trend started to really take hold. Indeed as Weatherguru18 noted; ALWAYS plan for the worst.

[dwg71]

It is so hard to forecast where this will be (or if it will even be) a week from now.

My untrained amateur guess would steer system from SFL to Outer Banks.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

132 hours

Passing south of Puerto Rico ....

Not sure why it's not reacting more to the mid-level wekness to the north. I think it's steering it too shallow. If the 500mb profile really looks like this, I think the track is further north.

144 hours

Brushing the south side of Hispaniola.

Indeed given the 500mb Pattern shown, the more Southerly track does seem rather suspect. We will see though.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

If the 12Z EURO still has the northern track this afternoon IT'S on to something.

[wxmann_91]

132 hours

Passing south of Puerto Rico ....

Not sure why it's not reacting more to the mid-level wekness to the north. I think it's steering it too shallow. If the 500mb profile really looks like this, I think the track is further north.

144 hours

Brushing the south side of Hispaniola.

I agree!!!!

It looks like there's a mid level anticyclone acting like a blockade between future Dean and the trough... and drives the storm south of Hispaniola.

[Janie2006]

Another note on intensity:

In addition ask the people on the Northern Gulf Coast about intensity. Katrina might have weakened to a cat 3, but her surge was still cat 5 like. Simply because it didn't have enough time to diminish, due to the close proximity to land when the weakening trend started to really take hold. Indeed as Weatherguru18 noted; ALWAYS plan for the worst.

Absolutely. In addition, I refer to Dr. Keith Blackwell's (University of South Alabama) research on Katrina's eyewall(s). There is no reason to think that double eyewalls (and the resultant storm surge) can't happen with a landfalling hurricane in the future.

[skysummit]

Jamaica taken out in this run.

[CourierPR]

If the models continue to diverge, will the NHC split the difference in the forecast track?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

If this 500 is correct is could be a Yucatan and Mexico Storm. High still located over Arkansas on last prog that was posted on NCEP.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Can anyone post latest GFS Progs? Thanks

[weatherguru18]

Interesting to note as well that the pressure on Katrina was 920mb. I believe that is the third lowest on record. However the winds were "lower" (I say VERY haphazardly) than what could have been expected with a correlating pressure.

[DESTRUCTION5]

If this ridge stays as long as advertised were gonna have major heat wave here in the US..