Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[SaveNola]

well I hope the that if this is a fish so and i doubt it is then let this puppy blow to a Cat.5 cane for all i care but let's hope if it acrosses any land mass then let's hope everyone stays safe lol!!!!!!!!

[Downdraft]

Forecasting a Mexico, a GOM or Florida landfall is USELESS!

Totally totally agree. Speed, intensity and conditions 7 to 10 days from now are what will decide the landfall and right now it's nothing more than a guess.

[wxman57]

wont it need to speed up since the upper easterlies are faster than the low level flow? If it slows down, wouldn't that increase the easterly shear?

More precisely, the strong easterly winds in the lower to mid levels need to slow down. That will allow the system to slow down and stack vertically.

[wxman57]

I have the 12Z ECMWF in through 120 hours. It appears to have lost the system. No closed low from 0-120 hrs and I'm analyzing for every 1/2 millibar.

[storms in NC]

The problem with looking at IR imagery is that you're not looking at the surface, you're looking 5 miles above the surface. Take a look at a visible image and you can see why 90L won't be upgraded yet. The center is exposed well east of the convection. I measured the forward speed at 19.1 kts the past 12 hours. It'll have to slow down before it can organize. If it keeps up this speed it'll reach the eastern Caribbean a day sooner - Thursday afternoon. But it won't be as strong moving so fast.

I have been trying to say this for 2 days now and No one will lessen to me.They keep saying it is normal. Yes it is normal when it is under a ridge to go that fast. It is going to fast to deepen. JMO. If it would slow down you will see it explode in to Big Daddy. Thank you for your post.
Deb

[wxmann_91]

wont it need to speed up since the upper easterlies are faster than the low level flow? If it slows down, wouldn't that increase the easterly shear?

More precisely, the strong easterly winds in the lower to mid levels need to slow down. That will allow the system to slow down and stack vertically.

Yep. The models showed that but I thought it was due to them developing the storm.

[Lowpressure]

With all the hype around this system, it could actually shear apart due to the rapid forward speed expose the center and be another nothing. Not sure I am ready to say that, but it is an observation. It may never vert stack.
I see several have just said about the same thing while I was typing.

[ConvergenceZone]

I have the 12Z ECMWF in through 120 hours. It appears to have lost the system. No closed low from 0-120 hrs and I'm analyzing for every 1/2 millibar.

Yikes, wouldn't that be something if this turns out to "poof" just like so many others have done since last year?...It does make me raise my eyebrows that it's "lost" the system... Hmmm....

[storms in NC]

What is happing is that the top are moving away from the Low and making it a naked.

[Extremeweatherguy]

With all the hype around this system, it could actually shear apart due to the rapid forward speed expose the center and be another nothing. Not sure I am ready to say that, but it is an observation. It may never vert stack.
I see several have just said about the same thing while I was typing.

If that happens, then I will have officially lost all my trust in the weather forecasting models. Such a large consensus showing this storm moving west and becoming strong only to have it fall apart would probably be one the biggest failures in recent model history.

[wxmann_91]

With all the hype around this system, it could actually shear apart due to the rapid forward speed expose the center and be another nothing. Not sure I am ready to say that, but it is an observation. It may never vert stack.
I see several have just said about the same thing while I was typing.

Correct... it may not intensify much at all. For instance, at 96 hr when the storm is nearing the Antilles (per the GFS), winds at 700mb and 850mb are STILL ~35-40kt. We've seen many a system die in that area when the LLC is sheared apart.

I may have to think twice in the future before getting excited from a model output.

[SouthFloridawx]

BAM D,M and S are not showing a problem with vertical stacking. System moves pretty much at the same speed on all three.

[cycloneye]

The best news today for us who live in the NE Caribbean islands was brought by wxman57 with the image that he posted of the exposed low center.We dont want a strong cane in our neck of the woods,not only for us,but for anyone in the basin.

[storms in NC]

With all the hype around this system, it could actually shear apart due to the rapid forward speed expose the center and be another nothing. Not sure I am ready to say that, but it is an observation. It may never vert stack.
I see several have just said about the same thing while I was typing.

If that happens, then I will have officially lost all my trust in the weather forecasting models. Such a large consensus showing this storm moving west and becoming strong only to have it fall apart would probably be one the biggest failures in model history.

The models are not for this well happen they are there to say this may happen. Nothing in stone till it happens. Models is only a guide

[Brent]

With all the hype around this system, it could actually shear apart due to the rapid forward speed expose the center and be another nothing. Not sure I am ready to say that, but it is an observation. It may never vert stack.
I see several have just said about the same thing while I was typing.

If that happens, then I will have officially lost all my trust in the weather forecasting models. Such a large consensus showing this storm moving west and becoming strong only to have it fall apart would probably be one the biggest failures in recent model history.

I'm going to seriously re-evaluate my interest in the tropics. I am SICK of non-events, but this one has blown the others away in terms of promise and hype.

[Hurricaneman]

What im more concerned about is the one coming off behind 90L

[ConvergenceZone]

With all the hype around this system, it could actually shear apart due to the rapid forward speed expose the center and be another nothing. Not sure I am ready to say that, but it is an observation. It may never vert stack.
I see several have just said about the same thing while I was typing.

If that happens, then I will have officially lost all my trust in the weather forecasting models. Such a large consensus showing this storm moving west and becoming strong only to have it fall apart would probably be one the biggest failures in recent model history.

I agree with you 100% and it would tamper my tropical tracking enthusiasm as well...

[PTrackerLA]

Hmmm 90L looks rather fragile at the moment. With all this hype, I'm wondering if we're even going to see development. Seems like with been at this point a few times this year and it turned out to be a non-event.

[SouthFloridawx]

If there was a vertical stacking issue, the BAM models would pick it up.

There is a bit of Mid Level Shear according to the latest shear analysis.

[RL3AO]

Thats right. Its just past D-min and people are starting to question development. Sounds familiar.